2024 FCS Championship preview, picks, odds: South Dakota State looks to repeat with win against Montana

The South Dakota State Jackrabbits aim for back-to-back FCS national titles when they take on the Montana Grizzlies in Frisco, Texas, on Sunday. Top-seeded SDSU (14-0) is a near two-touchdown favorite over the No. 2 Grizzlies (13-1).

The FCS Championship will kick off at 2 p.m. ET from Toyota Stadium in Frisco, a suburb of Dallas. ABC will handle the broadcast and the game also will be available to stream via ESPN+.

South Dakota State is not only looking to cap off an undefeated season but the Jackrabbits have an opportunity to join an exclusive club. A win on Sunday would make SDSU just the fifth repeat FCS national champion. The other schools to accomplish this are North Dakota State (2011-15, 2017-19); Appalachian State (2005-07); Georgia Southern (1999-2000; 1989-90, 1985-86); and Youngstown State (1993-94). It should be pointed out that App State and Georgia Southern are both now FBS members.

South Dakota State has won 28 games in a row in dominant fashion. The Jackrabbits have outscored teams by 681 points during this run, including a plus-111 margin in their three playoff victories this season. Montana is making its eighth appearance in the FCS (previously I-AA) Championship and has gone 2-5 with the last national title coming in 2001.

The Grizzlies are a heavy underdog against the mighty Jackrabbits, but coach Bobby Hauck’s team is battle-tested. Montana advanced to the championship game with an overtime win over Furman (35-28) in the quarterfinals and then outlasted North Dakota State (31-29) in double overtime in the semis. But neither of those teams has the balance on both sides of the ball that South Dakota State can.

The Jackrabbits are not only one of the most explosive offenses in FCS – third in scoring at 38.4 points per game – but coach Jimmy Rogers’ squad also boasts the No. 1-ranked defense. SDSU is giving up less than 10 points per game (9.7), including a pair of shutouts in this season’s playoff run, highlighted by a 59-0 whitewashing of UAlbany in the semifinals.

The Grizzlies’ defense is certainly no slouch – 17th overall at 311.2 yards per game allowed and fifth in scoring (16.8 points per game) – but the Jackrabbits have plenty of firepower to contend with. It starts with quarterback Mark Gronowski, the MVP of last year’s national title game, who has a 28:4 touchdown-to-interception ratio this season to go along with seven rushing scores. Gronowski’s favorite targets are wide receivers Jadon and Jaxon Janke. The twin brothers have combined for 99 catches, 1,643 receiving yards and 14 touchdown catches.

But wait, there’s more. SDSU’s top player is running back Isaiah Davis, the FCS’ leading rusher with 1,491 yards and 17 touchdowns. He’s averaging nearly seven yards per carry (6.8) and has gone over the century mark in the three playoff wins. Add to this an offensive line that features two AFCA All-Americans – Garrett Greenfield (first team), Mason McCormick (second) – and you understand why the Jackrabbits are No. 1 on third down (54.8% conversion rate) and in the red zone (scores on 96.3% of opportunities).

Montana’s offense is nowhere near as explosive, but it has been effective. Three different Grizzlies enter this game with 600-plus rushing yards and at least eight touchdowns on the ground. This trio includes quarterback Clifton McDowell (751 yards, nine TDs), who also has thrown 13 touchdown passes with only three interceptions. That last number could be put to the test, however, against a South Dakota State defense that has recorded 18 picks thus far.

Wide receiver Junior Bergen is not only Montana’s leading pass catcher with 55 receptions, he’s been even more dangerous on special teams recently. Bergen has returned two punts and a kickoff for touchdowns in the playoffs alone. Whether the big plays come on offense, defense or special teams, the Grizzlies will need to produce a bunch of them if they want to prevent the Jackrabbits from leaving Frisco with the national championship trophy in tow again.

All odds from BetMGM. Looking for college football tickets? Find them here.

What is the spread for South Dakota State vs. Montana?

Expert pick

While Montana has grinded their way through the playoffs with close victories, South Dakota State is a complete juggernaut. The Jackrabbits could compete in the smaller FBS conferences with their talent.

The only challenge for South Dakota State in the playoffs was a Villanova team that ranked No. 7 in total defense. The Wildcats did a decent job shutting down the Jackrabbits offense, but SDSU’s Isaiah Davis ran the ball 27 times for 192 yards and a touchdown. That shows South Dakota State can win with whatever the opposing team can give them.

My only hesitancy with taking South Dakota State to cover the spread is that Montana will have more than three weeks to prepare for this game and that can be an equalizer of sorts. But I think South Dakota State’s top-ranked defense will have no issues shutting down the Grizzlies on offense.

Pick: South Dakota State -12.5 — Andrew DeWitt, Sports Betting editor

(Photo of Mark Gronowski: Adam Davis/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)