We might remember 2023 as the year America went back to the movie theater. With high-profile releases from legendary directors and the “Barbenheimer” phenomenon, the box office returned to pre-pandemic levels — even as a months-long strike halted the entertainment industry.
We here at Bracket Watch spent a fair amount of time at the movies this summer and fall, and our favorite cinematic experience involved a live concert film that got us dancing in our seats. No, not Taylor Swift’s “The Eras Tour” or Beyoncé’s “Renaissance.” We’re talking about the restoration and re-release of Talking Heads’ 40-year-old masterpiece “Stop Making Sense,” which Roger Ebert once perfectly described as 90 minutes “of enormous energy, of life being lived at a joyous high.” We admired “Oppenheimer,” but we loved watching this lanky man in a gray suit:
And if you think about it, “Stop Making Sense” would make an excellent slogan for March Madness. Did anyone predict San Diego State and Florida Atlantic burning down the house, er, brackets on their way to the 2023 Final Four?
We can’t predict what’s going to happen in the rest of this already wacky season, but with the nonconference portion of the schedule mostly in the books and the new year almost here, we can start making sense of the 2024 NCAA Tournament field.
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Stop talking, help us get ready. Fair enough. Let’s dive into the first edition of our weekly 68-team mocks — with some help from David Byrne and friends:
• Same as it ever was. You may ask yourself, who are the No. 1 seeds? Somehow the top five teams on our seed list are exactly the same as they were for us this time a year ago. They’re just in a different order, with Purdue the clear choice as the No. 1 overall seed thanks to its five Quad 1 wins, including a head-to-head victory over No. 2 overall, Arizona.
• Heard about Houston? Kelvin Sampson’s Cougars have drawn some criticism for their nonconference schedule, but they have four Quad 1 wins and three against the NET’s top 25 (Texas A&M, Dayton and Utah). Houston also ranks No. 1 in NET and KenPom — just like it did last Selection Sunday. Facts are simple, facts are straight. That’s why the Coogs get the No. 3 overall seed, ahead of Kansas, which has some shaky metrics (15th in NET, 16th at KenPom) but an excellent resume. UConn looked like a No. 1 seed for most of the first two months of the season, but Donovan Clingan’s injury and the lack of a top-25 NET win relegated the Huskies to the No. 2 line.
• What about the time you were rollin’ over? Michigan State slipped into the field despite its 7-5 record. The Spartans have played a top-10 schedule, have that blowout win over Baylor and rank in the top 25 in NET and KenPom. That gets them a No. 10 seed — two spots on the seed line behind James Madison. Remember, when you wade in the water of NCAA Tournament selection, who you beat and who you played are always high priorities for the committee. That’s why Iowa State (No. 5 in NET) and Ole Miss (one of three remaining undefeated teams) are closer to the bubble than the top of the bracket; the Cyclones have four sub-300 wins and no victories against a team in this field, while the Rebels have a nice home win over Memphis but not much else to brag about.
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• O-U-T. But no hard feelings. Some notable teams not in the field this week, and with much work to do in the weeks ahead: UCLA, Texas, Indiana, Arkansas and Maryland. Teams without a win in Quads 1 and 2 were not considered for at-large bids, thus TCU, Pitt and Cincinnati were among those excluded despite decent metrics. That sound you hear is the wailing from CBS and Turner execs over USC — and Bronny James — not making the cut.
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Some housekeeping before we get to our (new and improved!) brackets:
• Final Four pairings are Midwest vs. East regions and West vs. South, based on our seed list, which you can see below. Projected autobid qualifers are designated with an AQ on the list; for projected one-bid leagues, we are mostly going by highest NET number until conference play begins in earnest.
• Please remember: This field has been assembled as if Selection Sunday were today. It is not a projection of where teams might be in 79 days for the real thing. Don’t get upset, it’s not a major disaster if your team is not where you think it should be right now. It’s only Dec. 29.
• This bracket was mostly complete on Thursday afternoon when news broke about Illinois suspending leading scorer Terrence Shannon Jr. after he was charged with rape. There are still many details we don’t know about this situation, and therefore it is not reflected in the Illini’s seeding. We will adjust as needed going forward.
• Questions? Gripes? Bring them to the comments section, and as long as the discussion remains civil, we’ll do our best to respond. So go ahead: Sing into my mouth. And if you’re still wondering what a mid-1980s concert film has to do with college basketball, just check out this screen shot:
| First Four Out | Next Four Out | Last Four In | Last Four Byes |
|---|---|---|---|
Kansas State | Texas Tech | Utah State | South Carolina |
St. John's | Oregon | Miami | Florida |
Butler | Michigan | Washington | Virginia Tech |
St. Joseph's | Drake | Nebraska | New Mexico |
SEC | 9 |
Big Ten | 7 |
Big 12 | 7 |
ACC | 6 |
Big East | 5 |
Mountain West | 5 |
Pac-12 | 4 |
AAC | 2 |
1 | Purdue | AQ |
2 | Arizona | AQ |
3 | Houston | AQ |
4 | Kansas | |
5 | UConn | AQ |
6 | Marquette | |
7 | Tennessee | AQ |
8 | Florida Atlantic | AQ |
9 | Clemson | AQ |
10 | Illinois | |
11 | Kentucky | |
12 | Memphis | |
13 | North Carolina | |
14 | Wisconsin | |
15 | BYU | |
16 | Colorado State | AQ |
17 | Duke | |
18 | Baylor | |
19 | Oklahoma | |
20 | Auburn | |
21 | Villanova | |
22 | Texas A&M | |
23 | Creighton | |
24 | Virginia | |
25 | Ohio State | |
26 | Alabama | |
27 | Gonzaga | AQ |
28 | Providence | |
29 | Utah | |
30 | Colorado | |
31 | San Diego State | |
32 | Iowa State | |
33 | Ole Miss | |
34 | Dayton | AQ |
35 | Nevada | |
36 | Northwestern | |
37 | James Madison | AQ |
38 | Mississippi State | |
39 | Michigan State | |
40 | South Carolina | |
41 | Grand Canyon | AQ |
42 | Princeton | AQ |
43 | Florida | |
44 | Virginia Tech | |
45 | New Mexico | |
46 | Indiana State | AQ |
47 | Utah State | |
48 | Miami | |
49 | Washington | |
50 | Nebraska | |
51 | Liberty | AQ |
52 | UNC Wilmington | AQ |
53 | UC Irvine | AQ |
54 | McNeese State | AQ |
55 | Kent State | AQ |
56 | Samford | AQ |
57 | Colgate | AQ |
58 | Vermont | AQ |
59 | Portland State | AQ |
60 | Purdue Fort Wayne | AQ |
61 | High Point | AQ |
62 | Morehead State | AQ |
63 | Marist | AQ |
64 | Denver | AQ |
65 | Norfolk State | AQ |
66 | Southern | AQ |
67 | Lipscomb | AQ |
68 | Merrimack | AQ |
(Top photo of Houston’s Emanuel Sharp: Kevin M. Cox / AP)
