Washington vs. Texas Sugar Bowl line, prediction, odds: Longhorns favored in College Football Playoff semifinal

LAS VEGAS, NV - DECEMBER 01: Washington Huskies quarterback Michael Penix Jr. (9) celebrates during the Pac-12 Conference championship game between the Oregon Ducks and the Washington Huskies on December 1, 2023 at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
By Dan Santaromita
Dec 27, 2023

Washington was a two-score underdog entering the Pac-12 title game and will also be the underdog against Texas in the Sugar Bowl. The Longhorns are favored by less than a touchdown for this national semifinal in New Orleans.

The Huskies’ offense has been the eye-popping aspect of this team. They are 11th in the country with 37.7 points per game, have the nation’s leading passer (Michael Penix Jr. with 4,218 yards) and the second-leading receiver (Rome Odunze at 1,428 yards). Despite that offensive output and an undefeated record, it hasn’t been easy for Washington this season. The Huskies have won four in a row and seven of their last nine games by one score, but the Huskies did outgain Oregon by 118 yards in the Pac-12 title game.

Advertisement

Texas’ offense is also on fire lately. With questions of whether the Longhorns would get into the CFP, Texas hit the turbo button on offense. The Longhorns put up 57 against Texas Tech in the regular season finale and 49 against Oklahoma State in the Big 12 title game. Both games felt like Texas could have scored more if it wanted to.

The absence of standout running back Jonathon Brooks due to injury is still worth mentioning, but Texas has run the ball just fine in the three games without him, averaging 207.7 yards on the ground in the three games Brooks has missed. Washington’s defense has been porous at times this season and will have a tough time with all the weapons Texas has, notably wide receivers Xavier Worthy and Adonai Mitchell.

The quarterbacks will get plenty of attention in this matchup. Penix was the Heisman Trophy runner-up and Texas’ Quinn Ewers was the No. 1 overall recruit in the Class of 2022 who has blossomed in his second year with the Longhorns. Ewers completed more than 70 percent of his passes and threw for 3,161 yards despite missing two games due to injury. If Ewers goes down again, it would likely be freshman Arch Manning taking over after Maalik Murphy, who started when Ewers got hurt, entered the transfer portal and is not expected to be with the team for the Sugar Bowl.

These teams met in the Alamo Bowl last year, a 27-20 Washington win.

Texas is making its first appearance in the CFP. Washington is making its second CFP appearance after losing a semifinal in the 2016 season.

All odds from BetMGM. Looking for college football tickets? Find them here.

What is the spread for Washington vs. Texas?

Expert picks

How to watch and stream Washington vs. Texas

Opening kickoff is set for 8:45 p.m. ET on Monday at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans. ESPN will provide coverage for the game and it will be streaming on the ESPN app.

Pregame reading

Sign up for the Until Saturday newsletter hereHow coaching partnership of Washington’s Kalen DeBoer, Ryan Grubb landed Huskies in CFPPac-12 coaches on Washington vs. Texas: Huskies’ team chemistry is their ‘biggest thing’Big 12 coaches on Texas vs. Washington: Praise for Steve Sarkisian, Longhorns’ skill playersTexas’ Maalik Murphy transferring to DukeMaalik Murphy’s portal dilemma is a product of a flawed college football calendar

(Photo of Michael Penix Jr.: Brian Rothmuller / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Get all-access to exclusive stories.

Subscribe to The Athletic for in-depth coverage of your favorite players, teams, leagues and clubs. Try a week on us.

Dan Santaromita

Dan Santaromita is a senior editor for sports betting at The Athletic. Dan previously wrote for NBC Sports Chicago and ProSoccerUSA. He is a University of Missouri graduate who resides in Chicago. Follow Dan on Twitter @TheDanSanto