ACC basketball preview: Is it Duke’s league to lose, or will others rise up?

Go ahead: Rag on the ACC all you want.

That’s everyone’s fun new schtick, right? That the nation’s most storied men’s basketball conference — at least in terms of national championships — is a shell of its former self, the worst of all high-major leagues. (Or, at least that’s what KenPom’s rankings said last season, when the ACC narrowly escaped being passed by the Mountain West.) No disrespect intended, but … really? The Mountain West?

But between the league’s lackluster nonconference performances the last two seasons, and its inability to quiet disgruntled members who are investigating leaving — don’t let the door hit you on the way out, Florida State — the ACC has taken a sizable reputation hit. It’s almost like winning three of the last eight national titles, and sending more teams than any other conference to the Final Four the last two seasons, means nothing.

The good news, then? That it’s a new season — one with plenty of intrigue and high-end potential in the ACC. Now it’s just a matter of capitalizing on early-season opportunities … or else, it’s another year of uphill climbing out of college basketball’s proverbial cellar.

Two dominant storylines

Can the ACC reverse its recent regular-season slippage?

ACC commissioner Jim Phillips couldn’t have said it more plainly: “We have to perform better in the nonconference.”

Because that, truthfully, has been the ACC’s biggest Achilles heel the last two seasons. Teams lose in November and December, see their NET rankings plummet … and then have no opportunity to improve that standing once conference play begins. (More innovative scheduling, allowing for nonconference tournaments or partnerships in January/February, would alleviate some of these concerns, but alas.) Per Warren Nolan, the ACC tied for last (with the Pac-12) among all high-major leagues in nonconference winning percentage last season. Welcome to the self-defeating cycle.

Phillips and the ACC’s coaches know this — well — and are conscious not to let the same thing happen for a third year in a row. “You have to win the right games; you can’t just stack wins,” Wake Forest coach Steve Forbes said. “Used to be, you’d win 20, 22, 23, 24 games you’re going to get in (to the NCAA Tournament); now there’s teams getting in at sub-.500 in their league, so you’ve got to adjust.”

Accordingly, a number of the ACC’s flawed but capable contenders — Clemson, Wake Forest, Syracuse — have intentionally scheduled tougher early-season games, giving themselves a shot at quality resume boosters. Now it’s on them to win those games, though — or at least, win more than they have recently.

Is Duke really this good?

Three ACC teams are ranked this preseason — Duke (No. 2), Miami (No. 13), and North Carolina (No. 19) — but only the Blue Devils are widely seen as national title contenders.

Is Jon Scheyer’s second team head-and-shoulders better than the rest of the league?

Scheyer returned four starters from last season’s ACC championship squad, including guard Tyrese Proctor and forward Kyle Filipowski — both of whom earned preseason First-Team All-America honors from The Athletic. Then he added the nation’s No. 2 recruiting class. Factor in senior Jeremy Roach, who starred in Duke’s 2022 Final Four run, and this group has the ideal combination of experience and talent.

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Detractors, though, would argue that Duke still has several unknowns. For example: Filipowski and fellow sophomore forward Mark Mitchell both missed portions of this summer rehabbing from injury, and Filipowski has only recently been a full-go. Center Dereck Lively II — who was integral to Duke finishing with KenPom’s No. 16 adjusted defensive efficiency — is also gone, leaving a rim-protection void. There isn’t a returner on the roster who shot better than 36 percent from 3 … despite Scheyer seemingly set to start three guards.

The ceiling here is still supremely high, but it’s on Scheyer to ensure his group gets there.

Miami’s Nijel Pack will become a go-to scorer. (Megan Briggs / Getty Images)

Three players to watch

Nijel Pack, Miami: Pack would’ve earned more shine last season if not for teammate Isaiah Wong winning ACC Player of the Year — but he more than proved his value in the NCAA Tournament, where his offensive excellence was key to Miami making its first Final Four. (He averaged 16.4 points and made 45.5 percent of his 6.6 3s per game during March Madness, all improvements on his regular season stats.) Now Wong is gone, and Pack has the proverbial keys to what should be another top-20-caliber offense. After shooting better than 40 percent from 3 the last three seasons, can he maintain that same efficiency on increased volume? If so, despite the defensive deficiencies that come with being 6 feet, Pack’s potent scoring and playmaking should have Miami back in the mix.

PJ Hall, Clemson: One of the most underrated bigs in the country, Hall has averaged 15.4 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 1.2 blocks per game, while also hitting 35.4 percent of his 3s, the past two seasons. Unfortunately, those stats haven’t translated to an NCAA Tournament berth — but this could be the year that changes. Despite the rest of the Tigers battling some preseason injuries, Hall is fully healthy — unlike last year, when rehab from a summer knee injury carried into the regular season — and poised to help Clemson take a jump.

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Reece Beekman, Virginia: With five of Virginia’s top seven scorers last season gone — including the seemingly eternal Kihei Clark — this is unequivocally Beekman’s team. Before his hamstring strain last season, it didn’t look like Beekman would be back this year either; he was a star last winter, looking every bit an NBA player. Now Beekman will have to carry an even larger scoring load, while still locking down every opponent’s best perimeter player. He’s up for it, certainly, but he’ll have to do so consistently for the Cavaliers — who aren’t ranked this preseason for the first time in forever — to live up to their usual ACC standard.

Top newcomer

Harrison Ingram, North Carolina: Several guys deserve mention here — including UNC freshman Elliot Cadeau and Duke freshman Jared McCain — but Ingram, the former McDonald’s All-American, should have the largest impact. As a 6-7 point forward, Ingram is the latest frontcourt import for Hubert Davis, who hit a home run (Brady Manek) and a flyout (Pete Nance) at that position in the transfer portal the last two seasons. Ingram doesn’t have near the same 3-point gravity of Manek, but his on-court communication, passing, slashing, and defensive versatility are all much-needed in Chapel Hill. Ingram has an NBA future if everything breaks the right way.

Coach who needs to win

Kenny Payne, Louisville

An exhibition loss to Division II Kentucky Wesleyan on Monday only confirmed how dire things have gotten at Louisville. Last season was the Cardinals’ worst of the modern era, and things don’t appear to be much better at the start of Payne’s second season. Louisville has too many resources (and too much pride) to be the national laughingstock it was a year ago; Payne, fairly or not, is already coaching for his job.

"We can't beat teams with talent. We're never going to be the most talented team. We can beat them with fight."

Full quote from #Louisville head coach Kenny Payne on finding the disconnect with his team after losing to D2 Kentucky Wesleyan #ForTheVille @WHAS11 pic.twitter.com/RGO9y6M3oX

— Mason Horodyski (@MasonHorodyski) October 31, 2023

Predicted league finish

1. Duke: We know the top-end talent will produce, but five-star freshmen coming off the bench? Duke likely has three of them, making for one of the deepest and most gifted squads in the country. Can Scheyer navigate all that praise in Year 2? If so, a Final Four berth in Phoenix is well within reach … if not the expectation.

2. North Carolina: In Year 1 at UNC, Hubert Davis took a No. 8 seed to within 20 minutes of a national title. In Year 2, the Tar Heels became the first No. 1 team in the preseason to miss the NCAA Tournament. The possibilities in Year 3 run that entire spectrum, but cautious optimism abounds in Chapel Hill. Nine players from last year’s team are gone, replaced by veteran transfers hungry to win in their final seasons.

3. Miami: The Hurricanes showed in March what the ACC has known for several years now: They’re one of the toughest outs in the sport, given their unconventional small-ball approach on offense and turnover production on defense. But losing Wong — and do-everything wing Jordan Miller — hurts, and replacing them won’t be easy. Florida State transfer Matthew Cleveland should fill the Miller role, but the guy to watch here, outside of Pack and returning big man Norchad Omier? Junior Wooga Poplar, who is poised for a breakout. “I haven’t seen everybody, but he may be the best pull-up, 15-foot jump shooter in the country,” Miami coach Jim Larrañaga said. “He’s gonna be playing in the NBA.”

4. Clemson: With Hall and Syracuse transfer Joe Girard in the fold — not to mention underrated point guard Chase Hunter — the Tigers should have proven interior and exterior scorers to rely on. But Clemson hitting its ceiling may be more health-contingent than previously thought; NC State transfer Jack Clark, an expected frontcourt starter, has barely practiced this offseason, according to coach Brad Brownell, while Girard, sophomore RJ Godfrey, and graduate Alex Hemenway have all missed spurts with various injuries. There’s enough talent here to be an NCAA Tournament team … so long as that talent is available.

5. Virginia: Virginia’s in relatively uncharted waters, prepping for its least-known season of the Tony Bennett era. Beekman is a stud, though, and the Cavaliers have enough interesting parts around him — sophomore shooter Isaac McKneely, budding De’Andre Hunter clone Ryan Dunn, and St. Thomas transfer Andrew Rohde, among others — to bet on Bennett’s developmental track record. The defense, we know, will be there; how quickly the offense gels will determine if the Cavs can surprise and challenge for another ACC title.

6. Wake Forest: The “elephant in the room,” as Forbes puts it, is Gonzaga transfer Efton Reid, who is waiting for the NCAA to rule on his two-time eligibility waiver. If Reid plays, the Demon Deacons should make the NCAA Tournament for the first time under Forbes — and without too much of a struggle. But there’s a viable path to March without Reid, too, albeit a tougher one; fellow Gonzaga transfer Hunter Sallis is Forbes’ latest guard reclamation project — following Alondes Williams and Ty Appleby, who Forbes made into All-ACC players — and savvy English guard Cam Hildreth sounds as if he’s taken a step, too. Don’t forget about sharpshooter Damari Monsanto, either, who should be back from a torn left patella tendon around the start of ACC play.

7. Syracuse: Man defense will be a welcome sight in Syracuse, but the Orange’s offense will be arguably more intriguing. Sophomore guard Judah Mintz is back to improve his NBA Draft stock, and he’ll team with former five-star Notre Dame guard J.J. Starling to give first-year head coach Adrian Autry — at least on paper — one of the ACC’s best backcourts. The Orange need one of Benny Williams, Chris Bell, or Maliq Brown to take a step, too, but there’s postseason potential in Autry’s first season.

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8. Virginia Tech: One of the bigger disappointments in the ACC last season, the Hokies have a chance to make an immediate turnaround, largely on the strength of their perimeter. Graduate shooter Hunter Cattoor is back, and in Sean Pedulla, he has a capable backcourt mate. UNC transfer Tyler Nickel, Virginia’s all-time leading high school scorer, should also be an ideal fit in Mike Young’s motion offense, giving the Hokies a trio of potent outside scorers. Former top-75 recruit Rodney Rice, an expected key contributor, would’ve helped as well, but he left the program two weeks ago.

9. NC State: Casey Morsell returns as a stabilizing shooting threat, and big man DJ Burns should be a focal point all season long, but NC State’s upside largely hinges on its transfer portal haul. Jayden Taylor (Butler) and DJ Horne (Arizona State) were both high-usage guards in their previous programs, but improving their efficiency will be more important. The wild card is former five-star Kansas wing M.J. Rice, who took leave from the team most of this summer but recently returned; if he plays, he’d give Kevin Keatts a much-needed jolt of athleticism on the perimeter.

10. Pittsburgh: This placement might be disrespectful to Jeff Capel, but the Panthers lost four of their top five scorers from last season’s NCAA Tournament team. And while returning forward Blake Hinson is an All-ACC caliber player, that’s a lot of production to replace. Four-star freshman Carlton Carrington has drawn some early buzz, as has Rhode Island transfer Ishmael Leggett, but the experience dropoff is notable.

Pitt’s Blake Hinson shoots over Florida State’s Baba Miller in a game last season. (Melina Myers / USA Today)

11. Florida State: Maybe the team with the widest range of outcomes in the ACC? FSU lost proven production in Cleveland and Caleb Mills, but returned plenty of high-upside pieces: Darin Green Jr., Baba Miller, and Jalen Warley, to name a few. Whether Primo Spears, a 16 ppg scorer at Georgetown, earns a two-time transfer waiver will greatly impact the Seminoles’ trajectory.

12. Boston College: A la Pittsburgh last season, this ranking could look foolish come March. Big man Quentin Post — who earned preseason All-ACC honors — will be the Eagles’ focal point offensively this season, but expect former four-star recruit Prince Aligbe to take a jump, too.

13. Georgia Tech: Damon Stoudamire takes over for the departed Josh Pastner, and he revamped his roster heavily through the transfer portal. Junior guard Miles Kelly is back as one of the ACC’s better scorers, and Western Carolina transfer Tyzhaun Claude should give the Yellow Jackets a legitimate interior presence. But this roster is still a ways away from contention.

14. Louisville: Nope.

15. Notre Dame: The Irish don’t return anyone who scored more than two points per game last season. Year 1 of the Micah Shrewsberry era is going to be ugly, but Notre Dame fans should be into this rebuild for the long haul — Shrewsberry has staying potential like his predecessor.

(Top photo of P.J. Hall: Ryan M. Kelly/ Getty Images)