Good news, hoopheads and draftniks. Finch is back at center stage. And he’s ready for his close-up.
For the scant few around the globe who are unfamiliar with Finch, here’s the deal. As I have done each year for the last two decades, I spoke last week with six NBA scouts to ask for their views on 50 of the top prospects heading into Thursday’s NBA Draft. I granted each of my scouts anonymity so they could be candid in their assessments. Then I grabbed snippets from all those conversations and stitched them together as if they were spoken by a single person. I named my amalgam of scouts Finch, because that was the surname of Scout, the protagonist in the classic novel
“To Kill A Mockingbird”. (As always, I credit my former Sports Illustrated colleague Alex Wolff for coming up with that pseudonym for a story he wrote for the magazine in 2001.)
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As you read Finch’s take on all these players, you might think he’s crotchety and overly critical. But that’s only because I prodded him to inveigh on each player’s primary weaknesses. We know these guys are good — that’s why they are on this list. The value in this exercise is to lean into the various reasons why they might not make it. The scouts’ opinions were far from unanimous, of course, but by talking to six of them, I was able to glean a general consensus on where these players stand.
Finch’s takes might be tough, but at least they’re honest. And given his diligence, insight and long track record of success, they are also spot-on. Here, then, is Finch’s assessments of my Fab 50. Read on, if you can handle the truth.
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Amari Bailey, 6-5 freshman guard, UCLA. “He turned the ball over too much. He played off the ball this year, but he’s gonna have to have the ball in his hands to have success. Will he be able to defend twos? Probably not, because he has average speed. His 3-point shooting isn’t where it needs to be, but it will get better. I liked how he battled through things at UCLA. Mick (Cronin) coached him hard but the kid did not blink.”
Emoni Bates, 6-10 sophomore guard, Eastern Michigan. “He’s not even on our board. Just too much of a circus. He has a scorer’s mentality but bad shot selection. He’s one of those athletic-looking guys that’s not really athletic. He has no interest in playing defense or utilizing his other abilities. He needs to learn how to play with other good players. Very talented skill-wise. He was good at the combine but his body needs a lot of work. I’ve heard he’s done a pretty good job during his workouts.”
Anthony Black, 6-7 freshman point guard, Arkansas. “Guys with that kind of size and ability to handle the ball are successful. He’s gonna become a better finisher as he gets stronger. I’m a little concerned about his lack of foot speed and his shooting, but I think he’s smart enough to figure it out. People are comparing him to Josh Giddy. His shot is going to have to come around so defenders aren’t going under screens against him.”
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Kobe Brown, 6-7 senior forward, Missouri. “I’m probably not as high on him as the consensus. I think he’s undersized. I struggle to figure out who he defends. I think the coaching staff at Missouri put him in a role where he was able to excel. He’s done a good job with his conditioning, but that could be a problem down the road. He shot it well last season for the first time in his career. Is that real? The question is whether he’s going to make it athletically. Really high-character kid.”
Kobe Bufkin, 6-5 sophomore guard, Michigan. “Love him. He’s rising big-time. He’s good in the pick and roll, makes good decisions, but needs to become a better shooter. He needs to put on some weight, but you can say that about just about every kid in this draft. I like that he didn’t play a lot as a freshman, but he didn’t pout and transfer. He doubled up his effort and pushed his way into the rotation. He has a scoring mentality but he can also make plays for his teammates, which is intriguing.”
Noah Clowney, 6-10 freshman forward, Alabama. “He’s a tricky one for me. The guy shot 28 percent from 3, and Nate Oats let him shoot it. A future play. Rebounds, blocks shots, capable passer, versatile defensively. He needs to get much stronger. He’s not fluid with the ball. He’s catching and rebounding but not doing a whole lot off the dribble. He didn’t have a great season but you can see the pathway. Really, really nice kid, but you’re looking at two or three years until you can get anything out of him on an NBA court.”
Ricky Council IV, 6-6 junior guard, Arkansas. “If he fails it will be because of his shooting. He has a motor, he’s tough, physical, strong. He’s what you want from an athletic 3-and-D wing in the NBA. He has the D but doesn’t have the consistent 3. Can he get there? I’m not sure his scoring will translate to the NBA because guys are gonna play off him. He’s small for a two guard.”
Gradey Dick, 6-8 freshman forward, Kansas. “One of the top shooters in the draft. Plays with swag. He’s surprisingly tough for a shooter. He’s not afraid of competition. Takes charges, tries to rebound. His weakness is defending the perimeter. If he’s guarding athletic wings, that will be a challenge. He’s not creating off the bounce yet so he’ll need someone to get him shots. My concern is who’s he gonna guard, but the way things are in the NBA with all the switching, he’ll be fine. When you’re 6-8 and can shoot, you don’t have to be a great athlete. He’s not just a shooter, he’s a pretty good basketball player who can put it on the floor and get to the rim. He’s a goofy, funny kind of personality.”
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Adam Flagler, 6-3 senior guard, Baylor. “Not a fan at all. He’s a good shooter, not a great shooter. He’s not ready to play point at our level. Tough kid, has some ability to score, but there aren’t too many little guards playing in the NBA. The other question is, can he find a balance between scoring and making plays for his teammates? I like that he’s been in a winning situation. He has to overcome being a little smaller by being a dog, and by playing hard and smart and efficient.”
Keyonte George, 6-4 freshman guard, Baylor. “Is he a two or a one? If he’s a two, he’s a little small. He can be a creative scorer but he didn’t make plays for his teammates. I think he takes bad shots. He has to learn to be more efficient. The question is whether he will commit to the defensive end. He’s not going to be an NBA playmaker. He came a long way in terms of his work ethic and maturity.”
Jordan Hawkins, 6-5 sophomore guard, UConn. “Best shooter in the draft. To me, he’s like Devin Booker. Devin wasn’t that well thought of coming out of college. Has the ability to catch and shoot, or score off one or two bounces. He has a quick release. He has some talent defensively, but he has to get stronger, and you wonder how much he will buy into that. Physical play does bother him. You worry about him getting pushed around. You hope in time he can become a pretty good defender. He has to at least not be a net negative on defense.”
Scoot Henderson, 6-2 point guard, G League Ignite. “Absolute specimen of an athlete. He’s a very good midrange shooter but I don’t think he’s a good 3-point shooter right now. His teammates love playing with him. I hear nothing but good things about his character and his work ethic. He’s still very young. He had a lot of up-and-down games where he didn’t really show up and compete. His game didn’t evolve much this year. He has all the tools to be an all-star-level point guard. He’s Donovan Mitchell and Derrick Rose. The guy’s a killer.”
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Taylor Hendricks, 6-9 freshman forward, UCF. “Love his upside right now. Has a lot of versatility offensively and defensively. He can play the three or the four, and even some small five. He’s not a rim protector, but he gives you that Jaren Jackson type of feel. They had to play him out of position because they weren’t that big. Physical strength is a weakness. He’s got kind of a laid-back personality. He can go through stretches in games where he doesn’t assert himself. His game is just so young right now, but his ceiling is so high.”
Trayce Jackson-Davis, 6-9 senior center, Indiana. “Not a fan. He’s an undersized five who’s not a rim protector and can’t be a switchable defender. He’s gonna have to get some kind of offensive package. Pretty good finisher, good size and strength, not the most athletic but good enough. Can he defend stretch bigs? I think he can facilitate your offense from the middle of the floor. He needs to become a consistent 15- to 17-foot jump shooter. At our level, if you can’t shoot the ball you have to be elite at one other skill.”
Jalen Hood-Schifino, 6-6 freshman point guard, Indiana. “Mature and physical. One of the best ball screen guards in the draft. Streaky 3-point shooter. I worry about his ability to get by people. He needs a ball screen to create an advantage. Not the best athlete, but he plays at a good pace and has a good feel for the game. I love his toughness and character. He’s going to have to improve on his decision making. He predetermines a lot of his decisions, especially coming off ball screens. When he gets around the rim he doesn’t have that pop to him.”
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Jett Howard, 6-8 freshman guard, Michigan. “I think he’s sliding in the draft right now. His lack of rebounding is extremely concerning. He doesn’t go in to fight for rebounds. He’s kind of lazy off the ball defensively. He just doesn’t know how to use all his tools right now. Skilled, high IQ, good size for a two guard, but he has average athleticism. Is he a two or a three? I wonder if the kid works hard enough. I think he plays in the NBA for a while because of his size and shooting ability.”
Andre Jackson, 6-6 junior forward, UConn. “If he could shoot at all he’d be a lottery pick. Competitive locker room leader. Mr. Utility Guy. He can do all the Draymond Green stuff. He won’t fit in everywhere. He came to Chicago for the combine and it looked like he was trying to change his shot from what he did during the season. It was awkward. His shot’s gotta be torn down and rebuilt. He has elite athleticism and the ability to make plays, but he has to be in the right situation.”
G.G. Jackson, 6-9 freshman forward, South Carolina. “Classic high-risk, high-reward. From a talent standpoint he could be first team all-NBA someday. He’s a jack of all trades, master of none right now. Plays with a decent motor. Doesn’t have a clear position yet. Played like a guy that was trying to make it to the NBA instead of trying to win games, but remember, he should have been a senior in high school. He went into a situation at South Carolina where he had to be the guy, and I don’t know that he was mature enough to handle it. He needs a team that will be patient with him.”
Jaime Jaquez, 6-7 senior forward, UCLA. “Winner. He’s a less athletic version of Andre Jackson. He can help you win by doing all the little things. His weakness is athleticism and quickness. His shooting is solid, but he still needs to become consistent. High-character guy, good work ethic, was obviously a tremendous leader. I think with a more reduced role, he’ll be even more athletic. At UCLA, I thought he looked tired because he was asked to do so much. Not the best athlete on the floor, but he’s crafty with the ball, and he knows how to draw fouls.”
Keyontae Johnson, 6-6 senior guard, Kansas State. “I like him but he’s frustrating. He can guard threes and fours, maybe some small fives. Needs to get better with his ballhandling. He has slow feet, but he’s a physically strong kid. He’s a dog. He has a tremendous will but there’s some skill stuff he’s gotta get better at. Two or three years ago he was probably a lottery pick. He had the heart problem, but he’s gotten cleared, so I think everybody is comfortable with his medicals.”
Colby Jones, 6-6 junior guard, Xavier. “He leaves you wanting more. I’m trying to figure out what position he is. Good culture guy, all about the right stuff, but will his lack of overall talent catch up to him? He needs to become a more confident shooter. He doesn’t really pop for me. High IQ guy, good playmaker, good defender, has some toughness.”
Maxwell Lewis, 6-7 sophomore guard, Pepperdine. “He’s a mystery man. Is he just a product of playing for a terrible team? He shot it very poorly the second half of the season. Has good length and physical features. He’s a little loose with the ball when he drives, but he’s a good finisher. He has a lot to learn about how to play the game, but if he puts on weight and gets some reps, I think you’ve got a good NBA player. Doesn’t move as great laterally as you want him to. He’s a pretty good athlete in the open floor, which gives you hope he can be that 3-and-D wing everybody looks for.”
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Dereck Lively, 7-1 freshman center, Duke. “He could be Tyson Chandler, or he could be Willie Cauley-Stein. He’s got the rim protection, super length, good quickness for his size. He has shown flashes of having a jump shot but needs to develop that. Tremendous athlete, can really run and jump. He didn’t have a big role offensively but it didn’t impact his effort level. Anybody you talk to in his life says the kid is in a really positive frame of mind. He could spend some time in the G League, but from everything I hear he’s one of those guys who’s grateful for any opportunity he gets. I’ve heard whispers about him being a good shooter, but I haven’t seen it yet.”
Chris Livingston, 6-7 freshman forward, Kentucky. “What does he do? He’s not a high-level 3-point shooter, he’s not a high-level creator off the bounce. He can rebound a little. Never did find himself this year at Kentucky. He’s not a consistent jump shooter. He’s just not very skilled. He has good competitiveness, love his character. Later in the season he started to realize who he is, which is a tough, slashing athlete. He’s not a shooter, but he can make shots. He has first-round talent, but he didn’t have a great year.”
Seth Lundy, 6-6 senior guard, Penn State. “I was really impressed with Lundy at the combine. He’s an average athlete but he’s got a lot of confidence, and he can really shoot the ball. He needs to learn how to play against athletic players. Can he make other guys better? He needs to give you a little more on defense than he has in the past. He has never really embraced it. When he gets out of his role of catching and shooting, things go a little awry for him.”
Brandon Miller, 6-9 freshman forward, Alabama. “That’s the man. All you have to do is watch that South Carolina game to see what he’s capable of. He was going through all that trouble and he was still able to lock in. He has the potential to be a good defender at multiple positions. His decision making off the court is definitely a question. In interviewing people and talking to people around him, there’s no concern about his character. He made a bad decision that turned out to be tragic, but from everything I’ve heard he’s not a bad kid. Hopefully he learned his lesson.”
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Jordan Miller, 6-7 senior guard, Miami. “I waver on him because he has played the four most of his career. He’s going to have to transition to a three man at our level. He has a solid motor but he’s inconsistent. He wants to be a scorer but doesn’t have a high-level scorer’s mentality. I worry about his lack of athleticism, but I hear he’s got a tremendous work ethic. I just worry for that position, you’re talking about defending some of the best athletes in any sport. He needs the ball to have success and I don’t see him having the ball at our level. He’ll spend a lot of time in the G League.”
Kris Murray, 6-8 junior forward, Iowa. “He can fit in on a team with a bunch of stars. Pretty good shooting threat. His weakness is creating off the bounce. He’s very smooth. There’s a question there about lack of foot speed. He’s a better shooter than his numbers show. He had to take a lot of tough shots at Iowa. He has a really good feel for the game. He has the size and the IQ to be a good role-playing forward in the NBA. I don’t think he’s the toughest cat, but he fits the NBA the way we play now.”
Julian Phillips, 6-8 freshman forward, Tennessee. “Buyer beware. I don’t see it. He’s got length, he’s got athleticism, but he needs to become a reliable shooter. I don’t know how mentally tough he is. His offensive game needs to come around. He’ll be on the floor first because of his defense. He’s a little weak to finish through contact right now. I’ve heard he’s been tremendous in his workouts.”
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Jalen Pickett, 6-4 senior guard, Penn State. “He’s the old man at the Y. If he finds a team that appreciates that, he’ll have a place coming off the bench. Strong off the dribble. Can he shoot it consistently enough from 3? I don’t think he’s a sure thing. Not a very good athlete. I’m not sure what his position is. I don’t think he’s gonna be able to guard point guards. He doesn’t shoot with range.”
Olivier-Maxence Prosper, 6-8 junior forward, Marquette. “He’s really made the draft process work for him. He made 3s at the combine and opened people’s eyes, but I don’t know if that’s really indicative of what he can do. Could be a high-level 3-and-D guy. His weaknesses are consistent shooting and ballhandling. He didn’t shoot it well in college. Offensively he’s got a ways to go in terms of his 3-point shooting. Some nights he looks like a big-time player, and some nights you don’t know he’s on the floor. I don’t trust his feel for the game.”
Adama Sanogo, 6–9 junior center, UConn. “I just don’t see him making it. He’s a dinosaur. He’s not a rim protector, not a switchable defender. Great kid, but there may not be a place for him in today’s NBA. He’s going to struggle guarding stretch fives and stretch fours. Sometimes you just run out of talent. Can he make it as a center in this league at his size?”
Marcus Sasser, 6-2 senior guard, Houston. “Love this kid. He has toughness, he has a scorer’s mentality, can score at all three levels. Being able to play point guard will be a determining factor for him, because he’s small at the two spot. Comes from a program that practices as hard as anybody, so he’s not afraid to work. He’s not, like, a jet athlete. He’s gonna be in incredible shape, never gonna get tired. I don’t know if he can create much offensively outside of a stepback right now. He’s a first-round talent but people are afraid of his size.”
Brice Sensabaugh, 6-6 freshman guard, Ohio State. “He’s a very good scorer, but I worry about his body. His lack of defensive ability is a question, or maybe it’s a lack of a desire to play D. I don’t know if the way he scores will translate. He doesn’t rebound, doesn’t defend, not a good passer. He can really shoot, but he’s not a guy that gets all the way to the rim.”
Nick Smith, 6-5 freshman guard, Arkansas. “This was kind of a throwaway year with the knee injuries, and he tried to make up for lost time when he came back. You could tell he was forcing the issue to prove he’s a lottery pick. I’m not sold on him yet. He has to become a better perimeter shooter. He needs to get stronger, because he has a history of being injured. If you go back to his senior year of high school when he played in all those all-star games, a lot of people thought he was the best player at those practices. He doesn’t know a good shot from a bad shot. But for that kid to come back to Arkansas and play in February, to me, that says a lot about him. Because it probably hurt him draft-wise.”
Terquavion Smith, 6-4 sophomore guard, NC State. “I don’t like the way he plays, but he’s athletic and fast, and he can make shots. He could become a good player but he scares me. He’s a scorer more than a shooter. Can’t play without the ball in his hands. He has some defensive capabilities but that’s not what he wants to do. He’s like a Lou Will who comes off the bench and gets you buckets. He took a lot of bad shots in Chicago. I don’t know if he can be a high-usage guard like he was at NC State. His frame is pretty light, so I don’t know if he can handle NBA physicality.”
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Julian Strawther, 6-7 junior forward, Gonzaga. “I don’t think he’s as aggressive as he needs to be, but he’s got size, he can shoot it. He’s a plug-and-play guy for a team that’s looking for one. You want him to be a better defender and a better rebounder. He’s a below-average athlete for an NBA wing. It’s questionable if he’s going to be able to get his shot off at our level. He’s got a low release, and he’s a little slow laterally.”
Ausar and Amen Thompson, 6-7 guards, Overtime Elite. “They’re one of the few sets of twins where the talent is pretty equal. They have elite-level speed, quickness, athleticism, versatility, playmaking ability off the bounce. The competition they played against wasn’t very good. None of the OTE guys get better. They’re glorified AAU games. I don’t think they’ll ever be great shooters, but I think they can get to the point where they’re respectable. I like Amen better because he’s more of a true point guard. Their careers will be dictated by how they develop their shots.”
Drew Timme, 6-9 senior forward, Gonzaga. “I hope he makes it, but I just don’t think he can. He scores with his back to the basket, and I don’t think that’s gonna translate to the NBA. He won’t be able to defend anyone. Some guys are just really good college basketball players. He’s a below the rim, undersized center. If he makes it, it’s because of his motor, his toughness and his IQ, but there’s more on the side of why he won’t make it.”
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Oscar Tshiebwe, 6-9 senior forward, Kentucky. “He has to improve his shooting but he knows how to go get the ball. He did a workout in Chicago where he shot really well from 15 to 17 feet, and he even made some 3s. More of an offensive rebounder than a defensive rebounder. He’ll struggle to guard stretch fours and fives. He doesn’t have a skill set that’s elite. I don’t know how teams will use him on offense. His hands are just OK, but he’s got a motor and he’s tough and he can rebound the heck out of the ball. I think he would destroy the G League.”
Azuolas Tubelis, 6-11 junior forward, Arizona. “Just not good enough. He’s skilled, but his athleticism is just OK. He’s going to struggle defensively. I don’t see him getting drafted. If he can improve his shooting he has a chance to be a backup big. Banging in the paint will be a problem for him. I don’t think he’s the toughest guy in the world. He’s going to have to be a knockdown shooter in order to make it.”
Jarace Walker, 6-8 freshman forward, Houston. “Great feel and a terrific passer. He can cause offensive mismatch problems because he can take bigs off the bounce and post up little guys. Has to continue to improve as a shooter. His position right now is a four but he may be able to play some three as he gets quicker. I thought he passed the ball well. I don’t see an all-star, but I see a starter down the road. There’s some worry about him not being an alpha type player.”
Cason Wallace, 6-4 freshman guard, Kentucky. “He’s one of the safest picks in the draft. Nothing sexy about him, but he can play the point, he can shoot, he can score in the midrange, he’s got solid athleticism. Doesn’t really have a burst. He never got rattled when Calipari would yell at him. Needs to develop his point guard skills. Still needs to develop his pick-and-roll game. He’s a high-level defender who can guard ones and twos.”
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Jordan Walsh, 6-7 freshman forward, Arkansas. “I don’t understand why this kid stayed in the draft. He can facilitate and pass but he needs to become a much better shooter. Good point of attack defender, but offensively he just can’t score. He’s worth a two-way for sure. He’s a good on-ball defender, but he’s not a lockdown guy yet. He’s just all athlete right now. I don’t think he really knows what he’s doing when he’s on the floor.”
Victor Wembanyama, 7-4 center, Metropolitans 92. “What do you want me to say? He’s a freak. Generational talent. Guys don’t do the things he does at that size. He’s hitting stepback 3s like Steph Curry. I guess the main question is that body. He’s not built the same way Chet Holmgren is, but he’s slender. Porzingis is built the same way, and his body hasn’t held up well. Giannis was thin coming in, too. Victor’s got a body that I think he could put some muscle on. I’m sure he’s going to have some growing pains because he’s thin, and the NBA can be a physical league. Let’s give him a little bit of time, but the sky’s the limit.”
Dariq Whitehead, 6-7 freshman forward, Duke. “He was hurt a lot so he didn’t really show what he can do at Duke. Then he gained some weight which also set him back. He’s got good size, good feel for the game, good passing ability. He has deceptive athleticism. I thought there were times this year when he played like he was worried about his draft stock. He was a much better creator when I saw him in AAU. He’s going to have to buy into being a 3-and-D guy. Having those foot surgeries after the season and not being able to do workouts might have hurt his draft stock a little bit.”
Cam Whitmore, 6-7 freshman forward, Villanova. “He’s another one where the injury threw him off. He never really seemed to get in the flow. That said, he’s a freakish athlete who can really go to the rim and finish strong. I question his feel for the game. He plays with blinders on sometimes. I think the NBA game will be better for him. There are questions with his decision making. Things have to be simple for him, but he’s a forceful dude. The shot is not broken, but he’s not a knockdown shooter right now.”
Jalen Wilson, 6-7 junior forward, Kansas. “I don’t think he’s athletic enough. He plays really hard so the game doesn’t look easy. He didn’t play great in Chicago. He’s a good college player, good system guy, but he doesn’t do anything that stands out. Talent is gonna catch up with him. He was a high-usage guy in college, but I don’t know if his game translates to the NBA. I don’t think he’s a great finisher at the basket. He’s not a dunker. He’s a three/four tweener, because he’s not big enough to play the four full-time.”
Isaiah Wong, 6-4 senior guard, Miami. “He can score in the midrange but needs to improve his ballhandling. If he doesn’t get drafted I wouldn’t be surprised if he makes a roster. He’s got a little herky jerky to his game. Defensively I worry about him because of his size, but this guy is shifty, and he can really score. I liked him in person even more than I liked him on film. He’s going to have to develop more of a point guard game. I think he gets a little scoring-focused sometimes. That’s a little harder to do at our level when you’re not the superstar player.”
(Photo: Brandon Sumrall / Getty Images)