There might be no NBA team with more uncertainty surrounding its direction right now than the Portland Trail Blazers. With superstar Damian Lillard still at his best but a roster filled more with young players than veterans who can compete next to him, Portland is between two eras. On top of that, the Blazers are led by a relatively new, smart front office that seems to have real job security.
Let’s dive deep into the team’s roster situation and draft history, then provide a look at what my big board for the Blazers would look like and how I would approach the trade market.
Team evaluation
Lillard has been a franchise icon for a decade, and he’s coming off arguably the best individual season of his career. He set a career-high in scoring, averaging 32.2 points per game. He tied a career-high in field goal percentage, averaged more 3s per game than ever and was more efficient than ever despite playing on a team that won 33 games. Lillard also turns 33 in a month, and his prime is likely closing at some point soon. Do the Blazers have enough time to actually build a contender around him?
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I think my answer is that question is that it’s highly unlikely. Jerami Grant is an unrestricted free agent, and the Blazers will need to pay a substantial amount to retain their second-best player. Given the teams around the league with cap space who could try to poach him, you’re looking at a price tag at least in the range of $25 million per season, as Grant is coming off a three-season run where he averaged 20.7 points on a 45/37/83 shooting line. If the team wants to keep trying to contend, re-signing Grant is essential.
Outside of Lillard, the team’s best asset is its first-round pick last year, Shaedon Sharpe, who was considered the kind of high-variance pick the Blazers love entering the draft. He looks like a hit after his first season. Despite not playing any college basketball (essentially redshirting at Kentucky), Sharpe stuck in the rotation the entire season and thrived late. Becoming a centralized force over the Blazers final 10 games, he averaged 23.7 points, six rebounds and four assists and shot 38 percent from 3 on over eight attempts per game. It was one of the best primary stretches from any rookie last season. I’m typically not a big believer in end-of-season performances being indicative of much, and I wouldn’t expect Sharpe to come into the season averaging 20 points. But I do think what he flashed is legitimate in terms of his talent and skill set. He has All-Star upside and is a real keeper.
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Anfernee Simons has morphed into a terrific scoring guard on a reasonable contract for $25 million per year as long as he can take one more leap in terms of his defensive play. Simons averaged more than 20 points per game last season on a bevy of 3-point attempts, with a 58.1 true shooting percentage that was right around league average. Over the last three seasons, Simons has made 39.7 percent of his seven 3-point attempts per game, many of which aren’t easy looks. He’s one of the best shooters in the league and might average 25 points a game at some point. The defense, however, has to improve for him to become a standout player you can count on in big moments.
Elsewhere, the Blazers have a group of strange, upside-y wings I wouldn’t say I’m wildly high on. Nassir Little is signed to a very team-friendly four-year, $28 million contract that could be a genuine steal because of the low price point if he takes another step on defense and keeps ironing out his jumper. He’s a bit limited right now, but he can play a role as a bench rotation player and is properly paid like one. Matisse Thybulle is a standout defender but takes a lot off the table offensively. He can be a rotation player, but I also don’t feel great about him as a starter at this point. He’s a restricted free agent, and the Blazers will need to be careful about what they pay him. That also applies to late-season flier Cam Reddish, who the Blazers acquired cheaply at the deadline. If they can sign him to an inexpensive multi-year deal, he makes sense to retain. But he can’t be considered a priority player. Keon Johnson is still a bit of a project. Kevin Knox is quite limited. I’m intrigued by Jabari Walker’s athleticism and feel for making smart reads and knowing how to space, but he remains a project from a skill perspective too.
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The center position is concerning. Jusuf Nurkić was not particularly good last season, looking more immobile than in previous years. He dealt with a calf injury that might have sapped some of his ability defensively, but his contract is regarded league-wide as a particularly negative asset. Drew Eubanks has developed into a somewhat steady backup center but is limited with his size defensively and is an unrestricted free agent. The team desperately needs to find an answer here if it decides it wants to try to win games with Lillard.
I don’t think the Portland roster or long-term outlook is good enough for the Blazers to worry about anything other than acquiring the best talent possible. With all due respect to Lillard, who I think is one of the 15 best point guards to ever live and a worthy inclusion to the NBA 75th anniversary team, the Blazers would do well to use this opportunity to best position themselves moving out of the Lillard era with the player they think has the best chance to become a star.
Draft history
The Blazers, in general, have been successful in the draft based on where they’ve picked. They are known as an organization that prefers to draft younger, high-upside players. All of Simons, Sharpe, Walker, Gary Trent Jr., Greg Brown, Little and Zach Collins were teenagers when the team selected them. CJ Elleby turned 20 a week before the draft, and Caleb Swanigan turned 20 two months before the draft, both playing sophomore collegiate seasons as teenagers.
Current general manager Joe Cronin became the team’s director of player personnel in 2014, which is right before you started to see a shift in strategy toward those younger players. Cronin continued this strategy in 2022 during his first NBA Draft as general manager, selecting the high-upside Sharpe and Walker. They also signed teenagers John Butler and Ibou Badji to two-way contracts. Assistant general manager Mike Schmitz is also known to have a real voice in the draft process, unsurprising given his decade-long history in the public sphere at ESPN and with DraftExpress.
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There have been some misses in this group, but hitting on Simons and Trent after pick No. 20 certainly makes up for those. Little is about what you can typically expect from a 25th pick. And Collins simply dealt with injuries in Portland. He suffered a shoulder injury in 2019 that saw him miss most of that season, then had a prolonged recovery from an ankle injury in the NBA bubble that required him to miss the entire 2020-21 season. He signed with San Antonio that offseason, and with the clean injury run, we’ve started to see his talent bloom. He averaged 14.4 points, seven rebounds and 3.3 assists on an awesome 50.8/37.5/81.2 shooting line in his final 29 games in 2022-23. It’s clear the talent evaluation wasn’t what missed there, and I believe in this front office making draft decisions.
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Big Board for No. 3
1. Scoot Henderson, 19, G, G League Ignite
If Henderson falls to No. 3, I would select him and not think twice. Given that I’m skeptical the Blazers can build a contender around Lillard in the next two seasons, I would focus purely on finding the best, highest-upside player I can.
Henderson is going to be an exceptionally hard problem to solve for defenses from the first day he hits the NBA because of how well-rounded he is in ball-screen actions. He can pull up and hit floaters, he can get all the way to the rim and finish with authority or touch, he can play slow or fast, and he can make high-level passing reads. He’s going to force the action in transition and drive easy points that way, as well as be the guy from day one who sets the tone for your organization because of his competitiveness and drive. Henderson is truly an elite, franchise-altering prospect.
As far as fitting with Lillard, I think it would work well. Henderson played off the ball often in 2021-22, next to Dyson Daniels and Jaden Hardy. If Lillard is gone, Henderson would get to be the driving force of the rebuild.
2. If Lillard is not asking out: Brandon Miller, 20, W/F, Alabama
If Lillard asks out: Cam Whitmore, 18, W, Villanova
The key question with the Blazers if Henderson is off the board is knowing Lillard’s status. I have very similar grades on Whitmore and Miller. If you were rating these two on a scale to 100, I would have Whitmore as a 94 and Miller as something like a 93.5, which is why I have Whitmore slightly ahead in a vacuum. But you don’t draft in a vacuum. You draft for your scheme and for your roster. And these two are close enough for me that I would want a better indication of Lillard’s plans before making the choice.
If Lillard isn’t going to ask out this summer, I would take Miller. Presumably, Lillard not asking out means you’re retaining Grant, and you’re keeping one of Sharpe or Simons to be the long-term starting two. I worry the ball could get a bit too sticky with Whitmore if the core is Lillard, Sharpe/Simons, Whitmore and Grant, who is not a particularly good passer, and neither is Simons. Sharpe showed occasional flashes as a playmaker down the stretch last season but still is very green and young. Whitmore had one of the lowest assist rates of any likely lottery pick in the last decade this past season and is still developing his game in that regard. Miller’s game fits better on the wing with Grant’s ability to drive, cut and score at the rim because of Miller’s catch-and-shoot floor spacing. He’s also a bit more reliable as an overall team defender if the goal is to keep competing, even though I think Whitmore’s upside on that end is a bit higher — particularly on the ball. I think Miller’s game is a bit more polished in stringing out mismatches and knowing how to create efficient offense.
If Lillard does want out, I’d go with Whitmore, who, in my opinion, presents the best case at a home-run swing between the two because of his athleticism and shot-making ability. Whitmore is an elite athlete even by NBA standards, a monster blend of power and explosiveness that will be difficult to stay in front of. A core of he and Sharpe would give the Blazers arguably the highest upside athletically on the wing in the NBA.
I see Whitmore as having a bit more of a chance to be a genuine No. 1 scoring option in the NBA and Miller to have more of a chance to be a great No. 2 option because his shooting and ballhandling comfort.
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Trade No. 3?
Similarly to the Hornets, I would listen to trade offers for this pick but ultimately would only move it under very specific conditions. I would need a younger star signed relatively long term. With Lillard in tow, the stakes are a bit different, as it’s easier for the Blazers to see a pathway toward contention. But this could also be the team’s best chance to find a star who can potentially build with Lillard and set the franchise up for success after the soon-to-be 33-year-old departs.
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To ballpark it, if the Pelicans were willing to move Brandon Ingram for this pick, I would have real interest. I think Ingram has potential to be an All-NBA player throughout his later 20s and has continued to get better every season. A Lillard-Ingram core with Grant, Sharpe and others potentially gets you somewhere if you can find an answer at center. But I wouldn’t have all that much interest in someone like Pascal Siakam, a great player who’s signed only for one more season and turns 30 next April, meaning his next long-term deal will entirely encompass his 30s.
The Blazers should listen, but I think they should probably just use this pick and continue to build.
Big Board for No. 23
For the purposes of this board, I have removed all of my top 16 players encompassing the first four tiers of my Big Board outside of Leonard Miller. These are the five names I’d look at most if I were Portland on the clock at No. 23.
1. Leonard Miller, 19, F, G League Ignite
Miller ticks every single box the Blazers look for. He’s a young player who is a late bloomer after hitting a growth spurt later in high school. He is still developing his overall game but has an immense toolset as a 6-foot-10 forward in shoes with a 9-foot standing reach who can dribble and pass, plus also has enough touch to where you can buy that he will shoot long term. In his last 10 games in the G League, he averaged 21 points, 13 rebounds and nearly three assists per game, as he improved drastically throughout the season. Teams are a bit split on Miller, but I’d love to see him land in Portland, an organization that has an awesome developmental track record.
2. Jaime Jaquez, 22, W, UCLA
Jaquez is probably the player I ranked too low in this year’s draft guide. I might be higher on him than anyone else in the public sphere, and I still am too low having him ranked No. 23. He should be seen as a top-20 player in the class. I’d have him at No. 17 if I could redo it.
The easiest way to explain it is that Jaquez is a gamer. He’s as competitive as any player in the class. He’s a great team defender, having earned multiple All-Defense honors in the Pac-12. He can create shots with crafty footwork on drives and ballhandling ability. I believe he’ll likely shoot it at a reasonable level when he’s not responsible for doing everything like he was this past season at UCLA. I just buy him as an awesome NBA player who will be a decade-long role player. He kind of goes against type for the Blazers, but he fits in two ways. If the team keeps Lillard, I think he can play a role similar to the one Christian Braun played for Denver as a rookie. If the team rebuilds, Jaquez is an elite character player who will help set the tone and be a young leader for the organization as it tries to establish a new culture.
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3. Jett Howard, 19, W, Michigan
Howard is a one-and-done teenager, so he ticks the youth box. But moreover, he gives the team something it currently doesn’t have as a floor spacer from 3 on the wing. Thybulle, Reddish and Little aren’t exactly shooters. Howard is, having been a consistent 40 percent 3-point shooter in high school who also made 37 percent of his 3s at Michigan this past season. I’m not totally convinced Howard will be able to play right away as he works to improve his defensive ability, but this is a smart fit for the team if he falls to No. 23.
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4. Noah Clowney, 18, F/C, Alabama
Clowney is a fluid mover at 6-foot-10 with a 7-foot-3 wingspan and real defensive upside. I think Clowney is most impressive as a potential switch defender right now, He moves his feet and uses his length to really impact plays. He knows how to contest shots at a very high level on the perimeter. He knows how to scrambles around and uses his length to cover a lot of ground. As a help-side defender, he showcases some upside as a rim protector and has solid defensive anticipation. Clowney needs to become the kind of shooter that he showed upside that he could be this season. But he did only hit 28.3 percent from 3. He ticks the Blazers’ boxes of being young for his age group, having not yet turned 19 and having real toolsy upside for them to work with. Clowney is also regarded as a worker with a professional mindset, so you can buy on him continuing to improve.
5. Kris Murray, 22, W, Iowa
Murray doesn’t exactly tick the box of being young, but he is a bigger, productive wing who has real athleticism at his size at 6-foot-8. He seems to have simplified his shot a bit in the pre-draft process, which is good. He’ll be a rotation player for a long while as long as he continues to hit 36 percent-plus from 3. He runs the floor, doesn’t make mistakes and is a superb finisher at the rim. He’s also a solid defender who gets around screens well for his size and knows how to scramble around the court. He’s an easy fit in the NBA and will make some team in the post-lottery No. 15 to No. 25 area happy.
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(Photo of Cam Whitmore: Bill Streicher / USA Today)
