By the end of Saturday’s second-round games, we’ll have half the Sweet 16. So let’s set the table with my picks against the spread for all eight of today’s games. Enjoy the Madness!
All lines are via BetMGM.
2023 NCAA Tournament: 16-20
2022-23 regular season: 45-30
No. 5 San Diego State (-5 1/2) vs. No. 13 Furman, 12:10 p.m., CBS. I was very impressed with the way San Diego State played to its identity during its first-round win over Charleston. All nine of the players who made it into the game scored, and the Aztecs held a good Cougars team to 32.1 percent shooting (20.8 from 3-point range). That type of defensive effort will come in handy against a Furman squad that ranks 10th in the country in scoring (81.7 points per game) but is 178th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency on KenPom. Though the Paladins made 10 3s in their win over Virginia, they rely more on 2-point shooting, where they are ranked fifth in the country at 58.7 percent. The Aztecs can counter that with one of the nation’s best rim protectors in 6-10 senior center Nathan Mensah. Throw in one of the oldest lineups in college basketball, and you have the makings of a Sweet 16 team. The pick: San Diego State
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No. 5 Duke (-3 1/2) vs. No. 4 Tennessee, 2:40 p.m., CBS. The Volunteers’ calling card all season has been their defense (they’re No. 2 on KenPom in efficiency), but no one is playing better defense right now than Duke. Dereck Lively II might not be much of an offensive threat, but he is arguably the most effective defensive player in the country. The 7-1 freshman forward had 12 rebounds and six blocks in the Blue Devils’ 74-51 rout of Oral Roberts on Thursday. The Golden Eagles came into the game averaging 83.3 points per game, the third-highest in the country. The ability of Lively, 7-foot freshman Kyle Filipowski and the rest of the Blue Devils to attack the rim could lead to foul trouble for Tennessee’s bigs as well as lots of free-throw opportunities for Duke. Tennessee will need a better game from 6-3 senior guard Santiago Vescovi, who scored just three points in Thursday’s win over Louisiana, but even if it gets one the Vols don’t have enough firepower to stop the Duke Express. The pick: Duke
No. 1 Kansas (-3 1/2) vs. No. 8 Arkansas, 5:15 p.m., CBS. Kansas isn’t the most athletic team in the country, so the Jayhawks depend on playing with a lot of energy. That was absent during recent losses to Texas — the second of which came without their All-Glue captain Kevin McCullar Jr. – but there is zero chance the Jayhawks come into this one not ready to play, even if Bill Self is unable to coach because of his heart procedure. McCullar showed no signs of being slowed by his back spasms in going for 10 points, seven rebounds, five assists and two steals in the Jayhawks’ first-round win over Howard. The Razorbacks also play with a lot of energy, and they benefited from Illinois shooting 6 of 22 from 3 in Thursday’s win. Kansas is not going to help out the Hogs by missing a ton of outside shots, especially with freshman Gradey Dick playing his best basketball of the season. The pick: Kansas
No. 7 Missouri (-6 1/2) vs. No. 15 Princeton, 6:10 p.m., TNT. This is not your father’s Princeton offense. Instead of relying on intricate patterns and perfectly timed backdoor cuts, the Tigers play through the post via 6-8 senior forward Tosan Evbuomwan (pronounced “Awoma”), who had 15 points, seven rebounds and four assists against Arizona and helped the Tigers outscore the Wildcats 42-34 in the paint. That allowed Princeton to win despite shooting 4 of 25 from 3. That should allow Princeton to match up well against a Missouri squad whose tallest starter, 6-8 senior Kobe Brown, plays (and defends) more like a shooting guard. Princeton should be pretty comfortable guarding Missouri on the perimeter, but the real reason I like Princeton is that it plays a patient, efficient style that should keep this game relatively low-scoring. Missouri may win the game, but it won’t be by more than two possessions. The pick: Princeton
From Sacramento: On Princeton’s mundane, almost uncinematic upset of Arizona. The Tigers weren’t surprised: https://t.co/FvPZoRcxdE
— Eamonn Brennan (@eamonnbrennan) March 17, 2023
No. 1 Houston (-5 1/2) vs. No. 9 Auburn, 7:10 p.m., TBS. It’s bad enough the Cougars have had to deal with Marcus Sasser’s groin injury (he did not play in their AAC tournament final loss to Memphis or the second half of the first-round win over Northern Kentucky), but 6-1 junior point guard Jamal Shead also hyperextened his knee in Thursday’s win. That’s a tough one-two punch to bring against an Auburn squad that loves to run, trap and press, and deploys a very deep rotation. (Eleven Tigers played at least nine minutes in Thursday’s win over Iowa.) Not to mention that Auburn will enjoy a de facto homecourt advantage in Birmingham. Houston ranks 342nd nationally in tempo, per KenPom, so it’s to the Cougars’ benefit to keep this game at a manageable pace. Given their injuries, there’s a very real chance the Cougars lose the game. If they win, it won’t be by much. The pick: Auburn
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No. 2 Texas (-5 1/2) vs. No. 10 Penn State, 7:45 p.m., CBS. This Nittany Lions squad is on some kind of heater. They came into the NCAA Tournament having won eight of their last 10 (with the two losses coming by a total of five points). Then on Thursday, they eviscerated a Texas A&M team that itself had won 10 of 11 before losing to Alabama in the SEC tournament final. Penn State’s system is heavily reliant on the 3-pointer (13 of 22 against the Aggies), but its best player, 6-4 Jalen Pickett, is not a long-range shooter. He is, however, a crafty scorer and elite facilitator. Pickett had eight assists and no turnovers against Texas A&M to go along with 19 points and seven rebounds. The good news for Texas is it has already faced a 3-happy team in Colgate, which came into Thursday’s game leading the country in 3-point percentage but went 3 of 15 against the Longhorns and lost by 20. Penn State ranks dead last in the country in both offensive rebound percentage and offensive free-throw rate, so it doesn’t have much margin for error. This feels like a game the Longhorns can win and cover with late free throws, but Penn State will not go down without a fight. The pick: Texas
No. 2 UCLA (-7 1/2) vs. No. 7 Northwestern, 8:40 p.m., TNT. Yes, the Bruins looked fantastic in routing UNC Asheville on Thursday, but it was only a week ago that this team lost in the Pac-12 tournament final to Arizona which … got bounced by No. 15 seed Princeton in the first round. Welcome to March! These things usually come down to matchups, and I think the Bruins match up well because Northwestern is so heavily reliant on two guards, Boo Buie and Chase Audige, who account for 46 percent of the scoring this season and had 44 of the Wildcats’ 75 points in the first round. Mick Cronin excels at taking away the opponent’s best one or two players. And while UCLA’s defense has suffered with the losses of 6-5 junior guard Jaylen Clark and 6-10 freshman forward Adem Bona to injury, the Bruins have become a better offensive team by relying more heavily on 6-5 freshman guard Amari Bailey and 6-4 senior guard David Singleton. The pick: UCLA
No. 1 Alabama (-8 1/2) vs. No. 8 Maryland, 9:40 p.m., TBS. It was odd, to say the least, to see Brandon Miller go scoreless during Alabama’s 96-75 first-round in over Texas A&M-Corpus Christi. Miller also shot 5 of 20 in the Crimson Tides’s win over Texas A&M in the SEC tournament final, and after the game on Thursday coach Nate Oats said that Miller has been dealing with a pulled groin. He did not participate in Alabama’s practice on Friday, but Oats said he expects Miller to be ready for this game. (Not that it would be unprecedented for a coach to be less than truthful about an injury.) As long as Miller is reasonably healthy, it’s hard to envision Maryland’s shaky offense (none of the Terrapins’ four perimeter starters shoot better than 33 percent from 3) withstanding Alabama’s withering pressure. I also like the move Oats made four games ago to promote 6-1 senior point guard Jahvon Quinerly to the starting lineup. If Alabama can get past Maryland, it will give Miller another five or six days to get healthy for the Sweet 16. The pick: Alabama
(Top photo of Kansas’ Kevin McCullar Jr.: Stacy Revere / Getty Images)