The Athletic has live coverage of the finale of March Madness and the National Championship game.
The new phone books are here! The new phone books are here!
And the men’s NCAA Tournament starts in earnest on Thursday. Here are my picks against the spread for all 16 games. All lines are via Bet MGM.
Advertisement
No. 8 Maryland vs. No. 9 West Virginia (-2 1/2), 12:15 p.m. ET, CBS
Kevin Willard deserves tons of credit for getting the Terps back to the NCAA Tournament in his first season, but his team had a major flaw this season: It played lousy on the road. Maryland had just two road wins this season, at Louisville and Minnesota. The Terps have an older team populated by transfers, so they don’t have much NCAA Tournament experience. Maryland will have to show up on the defensive end against a West Virginia squad that is ranked 15th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, per KenPom. The Mountaineers were ranked just one week this season in the AP Top 25 (No. 24 on Dec. 26), but their metrics have been consistently strong. They’ve drawn 21.5 fouls per game this season, second-most in the country, and have an elite bucket-getter in Erik Stevenson, the 6-foot-4 senior guard who has averaged 18.5 points per game since Feb. 1. The pick: West Virginia
No. 4 Virginia (-5 1/2) vs. No. 13 Furman, 12:40 p.m., truTV
The Cavaliers lost their mojo down the stretch. They barely beat Louisville and Notre Dame at home lost to Boston College and North Carolina on the road, and then shot 33.3 percent from the field in the ACC Tournament final loss to Duke. To make matters worse, one of their best offensive players, 6-8 senior forward Ben Vander Plas, broke his hand on March 4. Tony Bennett’s vaunted pack-line defense always makes this team a tough out in the NCAA Tournament (aside from one very memorable exception), but this Furman team is well-equipped to handle it. The Paladins rank eighth in the country in scoring at 82.1 points per game, and they’re first in the country in 2-point field goal percentage (59.1). Their starting lineup consists of two fifth-year seniors and two juniors, and they have most of their team back from the squad that won 22 games last season and lost by a point in overtime to Chattanooga in the SoCon Tournament final. The Paladins move the ball, shoot it well, and don’t make many mistakes. I spy an upset. The pick: Furman
No. 7 Missouri vs. No. 10 Utah State (-1 1/2), 1:40 p.m., TNT
If you like buckets (and I do!), this is the game for you. Utah State ranks fifth in the country in 3-point percentage (39.3), they’re 10th in assists per game (16.9), and their best player, 6-1 junior guard Steven Ashworth, ranks third in the country in 3-point percentage (44.3) and 14th in made 3s per game (3.2). The Aggies’ defense isn’t bad (68th in efficiency) and they’re 36th in the country in defensive rebound percentage. That’s a good profile to bring against a Missouri squad that loves to press, push the tempo, and take chances defensively (10.3 steals per game, third-most in the country). The Tigers are also 178th in the county in defensive efficiency, so the Aggies should have plenty of clean looks at the rim. The pick: Utah State
No. 1 Kansas (-20 1/2) vs. No. 16 Howard, 2 p.m., TBS
All signs are good for Kansas senior guard Kevin McCullar, who did not play in the Jayhawks’ loss to Texas in the Big 12 Tournament final because of back spasms. Coach Bill Self is also expected to return after missing the conference tourney because he was in the hospital recovering from a heart procedure. The best way to beat a No. 1 seed like Kansas is to slow the tempo, but that is not Howard’s style. It’s fantastic that the Bison are back in the NCAA Tournament for the first time in 31 years. Coach Kenny Blakeney deploys a 10-man rotation and likes to substitute five at a time. He also has a terrific point guard in 5-11 sophomore Elijah Hawkins, who ranks 11th in the country in assists at 5.9 per game. But Howard also ranks 356th nationally in turnover percentage, so it will give Kansas too many possessions to stay competitive. The pick: Kansas
Update on Bill Self. Had two stents placed. “Expected to make a full recovery.” pic.twitter.com/OET70xJ3Lc
— CJ Moore (@CJMooreHoops) March 12, 2023
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi vs. Alabama (-21 1/2), 2:45 p.m., CBS
The book on Alabama used to read that if the Tide weren’t hitting 3s, they could lose to just about anyone. That script has changed this season. Yes, Alabama still launches a ton of 3s (29.8 per game, fourth-most in the country), but this team also plays lockdown defense (No. 3 nationally in efficiency), pounds the offensive glass (No. 30 in percentage) and utilizes the free-throw line (50th in free throw rate). And of course, if Alabama is caught in a close game, it can hand the ball to the best pure scorer in the country, Brandon Miller. This will not be a close game given that Alabama only knows one way to play, and that’s fast. All of this is bad news for an Islanders squad that outscored Southeast Missouri State 27-9 from the foul line on Tuesday night, owned a 45-30 advantage on the boards, and still only won by four points. The pick: Alabama
Advertisement
No. 5 San Diego State (-5 1/2) vs. No. 12 Charleston, 3:10 p.m., truTV
Pat Kelsey has done an amazing job in just his second year at Charleston. The Cougars have put together two huge win streaks. The first lasted 20 games, the current one stands at 10. They’ve got a good chance to go to 11. Nine players on this team average 15 or more minutes, and Kelsey exploits that depth by playing the 29th fastest pace in the country. San Diego State is one of the few teams that can match Charleston’s depth, but the Aztecs prefer to play slow, grinding games that lean into their defense, which holds opponents to 29.2 percent from 3 (seventh in the country) and ranks 10th in efficiency. I think the Aztecs will get this game to move at their tempo, but this team has the tendency to go dark on offense for long stretches, and Charleston has shown that it can win in lots of different ways. The pick: Charleston
No. 2 Arizona (-14 1/2) vs. No. 15 Princeton, 4:10 p.m., TNT
Arizona is one banged-up basketball team right now. Junior point guard Kerr Kriisa injured his shoulder against Stanford in the Pac-12 Tournament, and it was obviously bothering him as he scored 11 points on 2 of 20 shooting in the next two games. And junior center Oumar Ballo broke his left (non-shooting hand) in the semifinal win over Arizona State. Given all that, I’m surprised to see the Wildcats favored by this much over a Princeton squad that shared the Ivy League regular season crown, plays a patient offensive style, presents quality size across its starting lineup and has five players who have made 20 or more 3-pointers this season. Arizona will win, but it’s going to have to sweat a little. The pick: Princeton
No. 8 Arkansas (-2 1/2) vs. No. 9 Illinois, 4:30 p.m., TBS
This is a fitting match-up considering these were two of the more maddening teams in the country. Arkansas’ volatility resulted mostly from injuries to 6-10 sophomore forward Trevon Brazile, who was lost in early December to a torn ACL, and 6-5 freshman guard Nick Smith Jr., who missed 19 games because of knee inflammation. Smith has played in the last nine games and averaged 19.5 points on 41.7 percent 3-point shooting in the last six. The Razorbacks also have an elite point guard in 6-7 freshman Anthony Black, and they take 71.8 percent of their shots inside the 3-point line, which is the third-highest rate in the country. That means they’re less vulnerable to a bad shooting night. Illinois’ inconsistencies came largely because Brad Underwood had to undergo a massive rebuild by bringing in transfers like Terrence Shannon Jr. (from Texas Tech) and Matthew Mayer (Baylor). Playing at their best, these teams are evenly matched, but I think it’s more likely that the Razorbacks will play at their best. The pick: Arkansas
No. 8 Iowa vs. No. 9 Auburn (-1 1/2), 6:50 p.m., TNT
We usually think of Iowa as a team that both scores and allows a ton of points, and this team is no different. The Hawkeyes led the Big Ten in scoring for the fifth straight year. They rank No. 3 on KenPom in adjusted offensive efficiency, but they are 167th on defense. Auburn has the opposite profile — 48th on offense, 29th on the defense — but when the Tigers are bad on offense, they’re stupendously bad. They rank 322nd in the country in 3-point shooting (31.4 percent), and though 5-11 junior Wendell Green Jr. can be hard to guard, he has a knack for taking terrible shots down the stretch in close games. Plus, Iowa is third in the nation in assist-to-turnover ratio (1.74), so the Tigers will have a hard time scoring off their defense. Auburn really depends on that defense (they’re 1-8 in games when the opponent shoots 45 percent or better), but Iowa’s offense is better than Auburn’s D. The pick: Iowa
No. 5 Duke (-6 1/2) vs. No. 12 Oral Roberts, 7:10 p.m., CBS
Oral Roberts is a verrry dangerous team. They were the only team to have a perfect conference record, and they won the Summit League tournament championship game by 34 points over North Dakota State. Senior guard Max Abmas, who ranks seventh nationally in scoring at 22.2 points per game, is one of four Golden Eagles who were part of the 2021 squad that came within a possession of reaching the Elite Eight. They’ve also added Connor Vanover, a 7-5 transfer from Arkansas who ranks second in the nation in blocks (3.3) and shoots 33.1 percent from 3-point range. Duke is the tallest team in the country and it ranks sixth nationally in offensive rebound percentage, so it does have a couple of players (particularly 7-1 freshman forward Dereck Lively II) who can mitigate Vanover at both ends. The Blue Devils are also playing outstanding defense, and they are now 19-1 this season with their full complement of players. So I’ll go with the Blue Devils because it’s a good matchup for them. The game will be close throughout, and then Duke will cover the spread in the final minute at the foul line. The pick: Duke
Advertisement
No. 2 Texas (-13 1/2) vs. No. 15 Colgate, 7:25 p.m., TBS
Colgate is exactly the kind of mid-major darling that is capable of pulling off magical moments in March. The Raiders run a dynamic, intricately patterned offense designed to produce open 3-pointers — and they make a lot of those, leading the nation at 40.8 percent. They’re second in the country in assist-to-turnover ratio (1.82), and given that this is their third straight NCAA Tournament, they will not be overwhelmed by the circumstances. It is not easy playing these games as the favorite, and if Texas feels game pressure late in the second half as I expect, things could get dicey. The best thing the Longhorns have going for them is their experience and chemistry, and though they rank 11th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, they are 97th in 3-point defense (32.7). This spread is simply way too big. Saddle up, Texas fans, you’re going for a tense ride. The pick: Colgate
No. 7 Northwestern (-1 1/2) vs. No. 10 Boise State, 7:35 p.m., truTV
Northwestern finished 7-13 in the Big Ten last season (15-16 overall) and then their best two frontcourt players transferred. Yet, here they are, playing in the NCAA Tournament for just the second time in their history. They did it not through the transfer portal but by relying on a roster of players that have been there for several years, chief among them their senior backcourt of Boo Buie and Chase Audige. The problem now is that the Wildcats lost steam down the stretch with four losses in their last five games, and they are facing a Boise State squad that is playing in its second straight NCAA Tournament and ranks 14th on KenPom in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Broncos have two of the top long-range marksmen in the country in 6-5 senior Max Rice (41.5 percent from 3) and 6-7 junior Chibuzo Agbo (40.8), and Northwestern allowed opponents to make 14.2 3-pointers per game this season, the most in the Big Ten. Northwestern is a good team, but this is a bad match-up. The pick: Boise State
No. 1 Houston (-19 1/2) vs. No. 16 Northern Kentucky, 9:20 p.m., TNT
The big question, of course, is the health of Marcus Sasser, Houston’s All-American guard who sat out the AAC tourney final loss to Memphis because of a groin injury. The Cougars won’t need Sasser to win this game, but they might need him to cover the spread. Even with Sasser healthy, they prefer to play at a slower pace (343rd nationally in tempo), which could also keep the final score respectable. The Norse play even slower (358th in tempo), and they managed to hold 12 opponents below 60 points this season and won each time. Despite the slow pace, Northern Kentucky also ranks ninth in the country in steals (9.4 per game), so this team is able to apply some legitimate ball pressure. The pick: Northern Kentucky
No. 4 Tennessee (-10 1/2) vs. No. 13 Louisiana, 9:40 p.m., CBS
Even before losing its starting point guard and best defender, Zakai Zeigler, to a torn ACL in the regular season finale, Tennessee was playing shaky basketball. The Vols were ranked No. 1 in defensive efficiency on KenPom for much of the season (they’re now No. 2), but their offensive shortcomings led them to lose seven of their final 12 games, including to Missouri in the quarterfinals of the SEC Tournament. Tennessee allowed the Tigers to shoot 52.6 percent in that game. They need to rediscover their mojo against a Louisiana squad that finished one game out of first place in the Sun Belt Conference and is led by a former McDonald’s All-American in Jordan Brown, a 6-11 junior forward who averaged 19.4 points, 8.7 assists and 1.8 points per game. The Ragin’ Cajuns also have two starters, Greg Williams and Kentrell Garnett, who shoot better than 40 percent from 3. Louisiana should keep this thing close and has a legit chance of pulling off the upset. The pick: Louisiana
No. 7 Texas A&M (-3 1/2) vs. No. 10 Penn State, 9:55 p.m., TBS
These were two of the hottest teams in the country coming into the tournament. After a 6-5 start, Texas A&M finished alone in second place in the SEC with a 15-3 record. The Aggies play solid defense (37th in efficiency), and they’re good at both getting to the foul line (third in offensive free throw rate) and converting their attempts (75.9 percent). They’re also sixth in the country in offensive rebound percentage, which means they can survive a bad shooting night. Penn State won eight of its last 10 games and reached the Big Ten Tournament final, but this team is quirky. It takes 47.4 percent of its shots from 3 (the 10th highest percentage in the country) and ranks ninth nationally in 3-point percentage (38.5), but it’s dead last in the country in offensive rebound percentage and next to last in free-throw rate. So the Nittany Lions basically only have one way to win this game (make a lot of 3s), while the Aggies have many. I picked Penn State to win this game when I filled out my bracket, but having looked at this game more closely, I’m switching it up. I’d rather be right than consistent. The pick: Texas A&M
No. 2 UCLA (-17 1/2) vs. No. 15 UNC Asheville, 10:05 p.m., truTV
UCLA has benefited tremendously from the leadership of its two stone-cold winners, Jaime Jaquez and Tyger Campbell. But the Bruins’ calling card all season long has been their defense, so to lose Jaylen Clark, a national defensive player of the year candidate, to a torn Achilles is truly a devastating blow. The Bruins’ top rim protector, 6-10 freshman forward Adem Bona, missed the Pac-12 Tournament final with a shoulder injury, but it looks like he’ll be available for the NCAA Tournament. Even when it was fully healthy, UCLA had to grind out a few games against lesser teams, so I expect the Bulldogs to keep this thing competitive. Their 18-1 record since Jan. 1 is tied with Oral Roberts for the best in the nation during that span, and they have a bona fide NBA prospect in Drew Pember, a 6-11 senior transfer from Tennessee who averaged 21.2 points per game on 37.3 percent 3-point shooting to go along with 9.4 rebounds, 2.3 blocks and 2.3 assists. The pick: UNC Asheville.
(Top photo of Duke’s Tyrese Proctor: Grant Halverson / Getty Images)