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No more debating, no more projecting, no more bubbling, no more guessing. The official 2023 men’s NCAA Tournament bracket is here. There are lots of methods to filling out a bracket, but for me, it starts with three simple words: Do it quickly. I don’t have much choice, because very shortly after I get handed a bracket in the CBS studio, we are presenting it to America via the Selection Show. I don’t have time to dilly-dally.
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I usually go into the show with a short list of mid-major teams I’m looking to pick for upsets. I couldn’t quite pick as many as I thought I would because I didn’t love the matchups, but I’m pretty sure I won’t get accused of being too shy with my upset specials. I like to have fun and take chances, so let the bracket pooler beware if you want to copy my selections.
Here are a couple of thoughts as you get ready to fill out your bracket(s). First, your best chances for significant upsets are in the 12 versus 5 and 13 versus 4 games. I asked CBS research guru Wayne Fidelman to run some numbers for me from the last 20 years. He reported that 35.8 percent of No. 12 seeds won their first games, and 20.9 percent of No. 13 seeds won theirs. So you’re looking at picking one to two No. 12s and at least one No. 13. Also, in the last 10 years, six No. 15 seeds have won at least a first-round game. So if you want to pick one of those guys to pull off a stunner, you’ve got math behind you.
The Final Four breakdown goes like this: 40.5 percent of No. 1 seeds have gotten there, 21.6 percent of No. 2 seeds have gotten there and 18.2 percent of teams seeded No. 5 or below have gotten there. So maybe you go with two No. 1s, one No. 2, and then a sleeper for your Final Four. (Or maybe you don’t. As you can see, I went aggressive on the early upsets and then got chalky for the Final Four.)
Finally, a little bracket strategy. Since most of you are in pools that reward picking higher seeds to win, the best strategy is to look for highly-seeded teams you don’t think will get past the Sweet 16 — and then you pick those teams to lose in the first two rounds. That way if you’re wrong, you don’t keep paying for it.
Then again, this is the NCAA Tournament. Being wrong is half the fun! So here is the way I filled out my bracket in Studio 43 in New York City on Sunday just before 6 p.m. You may follow my lead at your discretion. As Goethe said, be bold and mighty forces will come to your aid!
Here’s my region-by-region breakdown. Enjoy the Madness, everyone!
South Region
• The No. 1 overall seed usually gets the easiest path to the Final Four, but in this case, the delta between Alabama’s path and the rest of the No. 1 seeds is unusually large. Arizona played UCLA in the Pac-12 tournament final Saturday night, and even though the Bruins were without their best defender, Jaylen Clark, who is out for the season with an Achilles injury, as well as their best big man Adem Bona, who sat out with a bad shoulder, the Wildcats barely hung on to win by two. This is partly because they have an injury issue with regard to point guard Kerr Kriisa, who played through obvious shoulder pain (and it showed). Kriisa injured his ankle during last year’s NCAA Tournament, and it led the top-seeded Wildcats to be eliminated in the Sweet 16. So if you’re looking to take a flyer on a No. 15 shocker, Princeton is not a bad way to go. Regardless, Alabama is a very, very easy choice to go to Houston out of the South. Don’t overthink this one.
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• I also believe the next two seeds in this region, Baylor and Virginia, are ripe to be plucked. Baylor has had some good moments this season, but the Bears are ranked No. 104 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom, which is their lowest rank since 2009. UC Santa Barbara finished tied for first in the Big West Conference and is playing in its second NCAA Tournament in the last three years under head coach Joe Pasternack. Plus, I love older teams, and the Gauchos are ranked No. 8 in the country in experience on KenPom. Beating Creighton in the first round won’t be easy, but the Bluejays have no bench, and I think UCSB can expose that deficiency. So they’re in my Sweet 16.
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NCAA Tournament South Region analysis: Alabama, Arizona and more
• Virginia is also missing a key piece in Ben Vander Plas, the 6-foot-8 senior transfer who is the team’s fifth-leading scorer and is out with a broken hand. The Cavaliers looked really bad down the stretch, losing at Boston College and North Carolina and winning too many games over bad teams by close margins. They are going up against a giant killer in Furman, whose dynamic offense will give Tony Bennett’s pack line defense a real challenge. I love the Paladins in this one.
• Charleston over San Diego State might be an upset on the seed line, but it won’t feel like it when it happens. San Diego State’s greatest strength is its depth, but the Cougars get more from their bench than the Aztecs do. Pat Kelsey’s team also knows how to exploit that depth, playing an ultra-fast tempo and launching a ton of 3s. I’m a big believer that winning is a habit. This team has won 31 games this season and lost just three. That gives Charleston great confidence heading into this game, which it will ride into the Sweet 16.
East Region
• Purdue went from unranked in the preseason to No. 1 in the AP poll faster than any team in history, and until the Boilermakers faltered in mid-February, they looked to be steamrolling their way to the national championship. They got exposed offensively down the stretch, but Matt Painter responded by making terrific moves — namely elevating Brandon Newman to the starting lineup in favor of Ethan Morton, which compromised the defense but added necessary offense. Even when Purdue was winning, there were questions about the freshman backcourt, but now this team is getting offensive pop from a variety of sources. Remember, this team has Zach Edey, so the Edeyettes don’t have to be great, they just have to be good enough. They were indeed that during the Big Ten tournament.
• That said, I went with Marquette for my Final Four pick. Besides the fact that the Golden Eagles are exactly the type of quick, skilled, scrappy team that gives Purdue trouble, they also have great chemistry and role definition, and they are extremely competitive. It would bum me out to see Purdue fall short of the Final Four (again) because I know those fans are starving to see it happen. Alas, according to my bracket, they’ll have to wait at least one more year.
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NCAA Tournament East Region analysis: Purdue, Duke, Kentucky and more
• Part of the reason to pick against Purdue is there are too many teams that can trip the Boilers up in this region. Whether Purdue plays Memphis or Florida Atlantic in Round 2, it’s going to be a tough matchup. Both of those teams are deep and quick, and they can score points in a hurry. They also both have inside players (Memphis’ DeAndre Williams, Florida Atlantic’s Vladislav Goldin) who can put a body on Edey and make him score a few feet farther away from the basket. Then there’s Duke, which has been on an incredible surge of late, having won nine straight games and holding opponents to an average of 63 points per game during that stretch. A lot of people talk about Duke’s improvement, but what really improved was the Blue Devils’ health. They are 19-1 when they have their full complement of players. Throw in the possible Elite Eight game against Marquette, and I fear Purdue just has too many points of exposure to make it to Houston.
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• I have Providence over Kentucky in the “Bryce Hopkins Game,” the Friars’ leading scorer who transferred from Kentucky last spring. If nothing else, the Friars can make things physically uncomfortable for the Wildcats. I studied Louisana last week and wasn’t overwhelmed, but I think Tennessee is vulnerable as a No. 4 seed because it is playing without its point guard and best defender, Zakai Zeigler, who unfortunately tore an ACL late in the season. So if you take Louisiana and you’re wrong, the Vols are not long for this tournament.
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Midwest Region
• I said on the Selection Show that I thought the committee made a mistake in sending Houston to the Midwest over Kansas. (I also incorrectly said that the game was being played in Kansas City, Kansas, even though it’s in Missouri. Good thing no one on Twitter noticed!) The big question with Houston, of course, is the health of Marcus Sasser, the Cougars’ All-American guard who missed Sunday’s AAC tournament final with a groin injury. (Cue the Sam Malone YouTube clip!) I’m inclined to be optimistic because Sasser went through warmups hoping he could play against Memphis, but he was unable to go. That tells us that at least he thinks he’s close. I’m sure another week of rest will help, but groins are tricky, and you never know how effective a player will be even if he’s healthy enough to be out there. It’s too bad, because with a healthy Sasser, Houston is clearly good enough to win the championship (in Houston, no less).
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NCAA Tournament Midwest Region analysis: Houston, Texas, Indiana and more
• After Drake eviscerated Bradley by 26 points in the Missouri Valley Conference tournament final, I spent time on Synergy studying the Bulldogs — and I loved what I saw. This is one of the few teams in the country that is ranked in the top 30 on KenPom in both experience and minutes continuity (which measures how many players from last year’s team are contributing again this season). The only non-senior starter, 6-7 sophomore forward Tucker DeVries, is an absolute bucket who averages 19.0 points on 38.7 percent shooting. The Bulldogs also have legit size inside with 6-10 senior Darnell Brodie, and they rank third in the country in defensive rebound percentage. I know Miami has had a great season, but the Hurricanes lost their best inside player, 6-7 sophomore Norchad Omier, to an ankle injury in the opening minutes of their loss to Duke in the ACC tournament. The team is saying Omier will be available, but we don’t yet know if he’ll be ready to play in this game, and if so, how effective he’ll be.
• My decision to put Drake into the Sweet 16 has much more to do with my belief in the Bulldogs than doubts about Indiana — but now that you mention it, I do have doubts about Indiana. The Hoosiers were cruising for a while, but now they’ve lost four of their last eight, including by 22 points at home to Iowa on Feb. 28. The Hoosiers have an All-American in Trayce Jackson-Davis, but Mike Woodson has been expressing concern for some time about this team’s lack of depth, and that deficiency is manifesting itself just as Woodson feared.
• I don’t have too many strong opinions about the bottom half of this region other than Texas is the best team in the octet. The Longhorns won the Big 12 tournament even though their heart and soul, senior forward Timmy Allen, did not play because of a calf strain. Allen is expected to play in the NCAA Tournament, which means the Longhorns will have a large margin for error. This is an old and mature team that has a knack for figuring out ways to win. If Texas loses, it will be because it plays a lousy offensive game (which would be especially problematic against a team like Xavier that can score in a hurry). But no team, not even Houston, is going to beat Texas by being more physical. If those two teams play, I think the Longhorns could negate Houston’s primary strength, which would leave them well-positioned to advance to the Final Four.
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West Region
• First and foremost, I was relieved to hear that Bill Self was released from the hospital and plans to coach in the NCAA Tournament. The team sure missed him at the Big 12 tournament, but it also missed Kevin McCullar, my All-Glue captain who sat out the game because of back spasms. Back spasms can also be very dicey, so the longer Self can hold McCullar out, the better. Maybe McCullar can sit out the first-round game against Howard, but after that, the Jayhawks are going to need him against Illinois or Arkansas. A win there would buy McCullar another week of rest and treatment. It’s not an ideal situation to say the least, but let’s not forget that heading into the last weekend of the regular season, Kansas was the clear favorite to be the tournament’s No. 1 overall seed. The Jayhawks fell back a couple of spots with those two losses to Texas, but it won’t take much for them to get their groove back. If McCullar gets healthy again, I love their chances to make it to Houston.
• VCU and Iona were two other mid-major teams I was looking to pick heading into the Selection Show. I’ve been tracking the Rams for a while, and they showed me a lot of competitive spirit in rallying in the second half Sunday to beat a physical Dayton team in the Atlantic 10 tournament final. Saint Mary’s has been succeeding this season by grinding a slow tempo, but the Gaels showed in getting blitzed by Gonzaga that they have a rather low ceiling for a No 5 seed. Given the frequency of 12-over-5 upsets, this one was easy for me.
• Iona can beat UConn. It really can. Yes, this team has Rick Pitino, but more importantly, it has the talent to execute Rick Pitino basketball. The Gaels pick up fullcourt on the defensive end, they have high-major size in the frontcourt with 6-9 Nelly Junior Joseph and 7-foot Osborn Shema, and they have nine players who average double-digit minutes. Give Pitino five days to prepare for a team, and good things usually happen. I chickened out and went with UConn in the end, but given the Huskies’ ballhandling vulnerabilities this season (234th in the country in turnover percentage, per KenPom), they better take care of the ball, or their stay in the tournament will be a short one.
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NCAA Tournament West Region analysis: Kansas, UCLA, Gonzaga and more
• UCLA has long struck me as a team that was built for postseason success. Winning ugly is a highly valued skill in March, and the Bruins have that capacity in spades. Unfortunately, a big reason for that, junior guard Jaylen Clark, arguably the best defensive player in the country, has been lost to an Achilles injury. UCLA also has a big question mark in the status of 6-10 freshman forward Adem Bona, an elite rim protector and rebounder who did not play in the Pac-12 tournament final because of a shoulder injury. UCLA coach Mick Cronin said he expects Bona to be ready, but I still believe Clark’s injury means the Bruins’ season will end short of Houston. I’ve got the Bruins losing in the Sweet 16 to Gonzaga, but if you want to take a flyer and pick them to get eliminated before that, I won’t talk you out of it.
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• In retrospect, the criticism of Gonzaga this season (including from me) was overdone. Aside from the team’s home loss to Loyola Marymount in January, all of the Zags’ losses were of the utmost quality (at Texas, Purdue and Baylor on a neutral court, and at Saint Mary’s in overtime). This team suffered in comparison to previous Gonzaga squads, but it showed down the stretch just how high its ceiling can be when it plays mad. Gonzaga avenged its loss to Saint Mary’s by beating the Gaels at home by nine and then dominated the Gaels by 26 in the final of the WCC tournament. Gonzaga still has championship DNA as well as one of the most dominant post scorers in 6-10 junior forward Drew Timme. Timme loves nothing more than to take over a close, high-pressure game in the final minutes. A Gonzaga-UCLA Sweet 16 game would be a rematch of their epic Final Four game in 2021. At full strength, I’d go with UCLA, but sans Clark, I’ll take the Zags.
(Top photo: Carly Mackler / Getty Images)