U.S. Bank’s Post

"The main challenge for investors in 2024 is to confirm these hopes as trends. The first problem is believing that inflation will drop magically without any significant impact on growth and ignoring monetary aggregates. Inflation is falling due to the significant decline in money growth, and this means an abrupt slump in liquidity, a weaker economy, and financial conditions worsening. (...) The United States will need to refinance $7 trillion of maturities in a declining broad money economy, and this means a massive vacuum effect. A giant liquidity drain that hardly justifies multiple expansions and bullish sentiment." Market Euphoria is Based on Three Dangerous Myths by #DanielLacalle #liquiditydrain #inflation #debtmaturities #marketeuphoria #monetaryaggregates

📈 2024 Capital Markets Outlook: A Mix of Caution and Resilience As we move into 2024, the global capital markets are navigating a landscape shaped by economic resilience and caution. After a tumultuous period in 2023 marked by a liquidity crunch in US banks, there's a sense of stabilization. In the debt markets, we've seen healthy issuance activity with tightening credit spreads, despite a notable increase in interest rates over the last 18 months. However, the global equity market tells a different story, with a more subdued level of new equity issuances, as investors await clearer signs of economic stability. The bear steepening of the US yield curve, where long-term rates rise faster than short-term rates, indicates that high interest rates might persist. This, coupled with rising geopolitical tensions, could dampen risk appetites in the equity markets. Yet, there are glimmers of optimism. The US economy, the backbone of the world’s largest capital markets, has shown strength with a robust jobs report and nearly 5% GDP growth in Q3 of 2023. Should this stability continue and the Federal Reserve conclude its monetary tightening, we could see a renewed vigor in capital markets. As we look ahead, the question remains: Will the resilience in economic growth and potential easing of monetary policies rejuvenate the capital markets in 2024? #CapitalMarkets #EconomicOutlook #InvestmentTrends #FinanceNews 𝘋𝘪𝘴𝘤𝘭𝘢𝘪𝘮𝘦𝘳 : 𝘊𝘰𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘴𝘩𝘢𝘳𝘦𝘥 𝘩𝘦𝘳𝘦 𝘪𝘴 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘪𝘯𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘱𝘶𝘳𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘦𝘴 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘢 𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘮𝘰𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘰𝘳 𝘦𝘯𝘥𝘰𝘳𝘴𝘦𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘰𝘧 𝘢𝘯𝘺 𝘧𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘪𝘢𝘭 𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘪𝘵𝘪𝘦𝘴 𝘰𝘳 𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘥𝘶𝘤𝘵𝘴.

“(...) the global economy showed surprising resilience through the turbulence. Despite inflation peaking above 9% in Europe and 8% in the United States, growth remained positive.”   You can find the Q1 #Outlook prepared by Stefano Torti, CAIA, CFA, our Group Head of Asset Management and Advisory, on our website: https://lnkd.in/eRVPR6Mb   #BanqueHavilland #AssetManagement #Outlook

🌟 Excited to share insights into our investment strategy for 2024! 📈 We're anticipating moderate economic growth, declining inflation, and looser central bank policy, setting the stage for a pro-risk stance in our portfolios. 💼 Here's a snapshot of our key positions: - Overweight on equities and credit to express our pro-risk stance. - Neutral on duration due to potential range-bound trading. - Underweight on cash due to expectations for easier policy, mitigating reinvestment risk. - Favoring U.S. cyclical sectors, Japan, and emerging markets (excluding China) for alpha opportunities in equity markets. - Preferring shorter-dated U.S. high yield, non-agency mortgages, and securitized credit within fixed income. Despite potential short-term stock consolidations, the Federal Reserve's pivot towards easier policy reinforces our positive outlook for risk assets. We anticipate U.S. GDP growth around 2%, with inflation cooling gradually and the Fed likely to deliver two or three rate cuts in 2024. Our multi-asset portfolios reflect this environment with overweight positions in credit and equity, neutral duration, and an underweight on cash. Stay tuned for more updates as we navigate through 2024! 💼📈 #InvestmentStrategy #MarketInsights #EconomicOutlook More Contents: Woongsik Dr. Su, MBA

Market Highlights and Outlook (2nd – 5th January 2024) The first week of 2024 brought some notable news and events that could affect the global markets and the portfolios of wealthy investors. Here are some of the highlights and insights from various sources: • The US national debt reached a record $34 trillion, raising concerns about the long-term fiscal sustainability and the risk of a debt crisis1. • Tesla lagged behind China’s BYD in Q4 EV sales, as the latter faced geopolitical challenges and regulatory uncertainties in its home market2. The outlook for 2024 is cautiously optimistic, as the market expects central banks to achieve a soft landing and avoid a recession. However, geopolitical risks, inflation, and interest rates remain key sources of uncertainty and volatility. Investors are advised to diversify their portfolios, maintain flexibility, and be ready to take advantage of any opportunities that may arise. Some of the favored markets and sectors for 2024 include high-quality tech, Japan, India, Mexico, and US healthcare. These areas are expected to benefit from innovation, growth, and resilience. Emerging markets, however, require careful evaluation, as they face divergent challenges and opportunities. Climate resilience is a key theme for 2024, as the energy transition creates new possibilities for investors. REITs also offer potential in a volatile interest rate environment, as long as they are high quality. The second week of 2024 will bring some critical data releases that could impact the markets, such as: • Balance of Trade reports from Germany, Canada, Australia, and China • US inflation data for December and China’s YoY inflation data • The UK’s monthly GDP figures and Germany’s Full Year GDP Growth stats Investors should keep an eye on these data points, as well as their watchlist is up-to-date with desired stocks and prices, anticipating potential opportunities.

In the intricate dance of global finance, interest rate hikes hold profound implications for investors, shaping the trajectory of portfolios and influencing strategic decision-making. As we navigate the dynamic economic landscape, understanding the ripple effects of interest rate hikes becomes paramount. Interest rate hikes, often orchestrated by central banks to curb inflation or stabilize economies, have far-reaching consequences. In the fixed-income market, rising interest rates can lead to lower bond prices, impacting investors holding existing bonds. Equities, on the other hand, may face headwinds as borrowing costs increase, affecting corporate profitability and valuations. For savvy investors, the key lies in adaptability and foresight. Diversification becomes a shield against the impact of interest rate hikes, with a judicious mix of equities, fixed-income assets, and alternative investments. Sectors less sensitive to interest rate movements, such as technology and healthcare, may emerge as resilient pillars in a rising rate environment. Moreover, monitoring economic indicators and central bank communications becomes essential. Anticipating the timing and extent of interest rate hikes allows investors to position themselves strategically, adjusting portfolios to align with the evolving market dynamics. In this era of financial complexity, staying informed and agile is the key to navigating interest rate hikes. Investors who embrace a dynamic approach and leverage insights to adapt to changing interest rate environments position themselves not just as spectators but as architects of resilient and adaptive investment strategies. #InterestRateHikes #InvestmentStrategy #FinancialSuccess #EconomicChanges #MarketAdaptation #InvestorInsights #FinancialPlanning #InterestRateImpact #StrategicInvesting #MarketWatch #FinancialFreedom

In our December market update, we commented that it was clear interest rates would shift lower in coming months, but as always, there were other factors to consider. The disruption to shipping lanes and the number of high-profile elections in 2023 could lead to supply side shocks or geopolitical surprises, which could in theory keep inflation higher, disrupting the path to disinflation. As such, we continue to favour quality companies, which have resilient business models, low debt levels and positive cash flows. Find out more, and discover what it could mean for your business, at the link below.

LinkedIn Post: 🔴 Market Bloodbath Ahead: Nouriel Roubini warns of a stagflation era that will impact both fixed-income and equities over the next decade. The "Dr. Doom" predicts losses in the tens of trillions as inflation remains high and economies face major headwinds. Brace yourself for a turbulent financial landscape. #MarketBloodbath #StagflationEra #Inflation #FinancialHeadwinds Note: The above summary is based on the news article shared. Please ensure to verify the information and tailor the post to your specific audience and style before posting on LinkedIn.

Will the market get comfortable with the direction of inflation in the face of weaker growth? And will it push interest rates lower? Portfolio manager Pramod Atluri explains why he believes it may happen and how investors could potentially set themselves up for even greater total returns if yields do fall. Important disclosures: https://bit.ly/2JzEDWl .

Markets pulled back in April as traders grappled with changing expectations for interest rate cuts in 2024, but strong corporate earnings helped provide some offset to the rising negativity in markets. In our latest newsletter, we cover all the latest economic developments, what they mean, and what advice we’re offering to investors during this time.