Paul Hsu’s Post

A moment of reflection from one of the crew that is usually hyping tech change. His main conclusions: 1. Disruption is overrated - incumbent companies still have the most power, gobbling up disruptive technology at every opportunity. 2. Human factors are everything - or, rather, people are resistant to change, and slow to adopt new things. 3. We’re all susceptible to this one kind of tech B.S. - entrepreneurs fool themselves with rosy thinking. 4. Tech bubbles are useful even when they’re wasteful - the ideas generated persist, even when the companies pushing them are dust. 5. We’ve got more power than we think - the customer is King, which I think most people already know. Though the author turns it into a plea for people to put guardrails around new technology democratically, which tells me that he has his own rose-tinted glasses on.

Picking the #tech products that will really change our life is hard. What technology did you think would be pervasive in 2024 but isn’t? In the past 10 years, columnist Christopher Mims has written 500 “Keywords” columns for The Wall Street Journal. This weekend he wrote about what he’s gotten wrong in predicting the future of tech. While technological progress can be swift, he writes, societal adoption, regulatory environments, and practical implementation often lag behind. The columnist’s journey highlights the unpredictability of tech adoption and the importance of aligning strategies with both technological advancements and societal dynamics. Mims highlights the following lessons learned in tech prognostication: disruption is overrated, human factors are everything, tech people lie to themselves, tech bubbles are useful, and users have more power to shape technology than they think. Read the full column here: https://lnkd.in/ejumqb_n

https://lnkd.in/gsJStPk5 "After almost 500 articles in The Wall Street Journal, one thing I’ve learned from covering the tech industry is that failures are far more instructive. Especially when they’re the kind of errors made by many people." I came across this article while perusing the Saturday edition of the Wall Street Journal with my morning coffee. Beyond the 5 lessons the author has learned I think it's a great example of humility and taking stock of what he got wrong, while also showing that there is value in the process even when you don't end up at a successful outcome. In tech, and much of life, there is a bias for what's happening right now or what's the next big thing, but there is great value in stepping back and looking at your industry and yourself through a longer term lens. I also always enjoy an analysis of 'common sense' ideas that are held mostly without question or interrogation. The author has 5 main points but I want to dive into his first 3 specifically: 1. Disruption and disruptive innovation is not just exceedingly rare, but over-valued generally. Chief among the reasons are that "many tech leaders have internalized a hypercompetitive paranoia—what Amazon founder Jeff Bezos called “Day 1” thinking—that inspires them to either acquire or copy and kill every possible upstart." This consolidation, along with the sheer size and resources of these firms, mean that the biggest players in the tech space are basically the same biggest players from 10 years ago. 2. Technology is used by people, and no matter how cool something is in theory, its success is measured by people actually using and adopting it. The basic error here is the same fallacy that led me to change my college major from Economics to Cultural Studies: the assumption that people are "coldly rational utilitarians bent solely on maximizing our productivity or pleasure". Another great quote from this section: "People who study how humans interact with technology call their field “human factors,” and one of their primary insights is that we are all hot messes." 3. "Tech is, to put it bluntly, full of people lying to themselves." - While there is obviously a place for ideation, optimism, and imagining new things, there's also a reason that the status quo is the status quo. This point is tightly related to point 1 - if an idea is obvious and an incremental improvement the giant firms are probably already on it, or if an idea is so far reaching and 'disruptive' that it will change the world if successful then it's a long-shot almost by definition (and probably a longer effort than people who live quarter-by-quarter financially prefer to boot). There is a high degree of wishful thinking in the tech space, and as much as I hate to be the wet blanket sometimes you need to be the guy in the room saying that NFTs are fundamentally kind of dumb.

Water Flows Downhill, and Tech Solves the Easy Problems First. After the launch of Amazon and Google, when smartphones reached critical mass, an easy problem to solve involved bridging information with stuff. So you could use your phone to summon a car, a case of beer, a dog sitter or just about anything that someone with resources might want to get, with convenience. It took little in the way of insight, leadership or extraordinary effort for these things to unfold. If you didn’t build that app, someone else was going to. The business model existed, the funding was available, and the pattern was there to be matched. And it’s tempting to defend the easy shortcuts that technology exposes. “It’s too expensive for us to moderate…” or “the market will sort itself out” or “We need to hire the obvious person to do this work…” Sometimes, though, humans show up to bend the curve of technology. They push against the conventional wisdom, avoid the obvious paths, and take responsibility for the impact of their work. Kheyti is an example of this. Patient capital might not be as seductive as the next obvious step in tech’s evolution, but it matters.  This leads to an often-under-asked question: What is technology for? If we’re simply conduits for the evolution of tech in all its forms, bystanders and witnesses who might profit if we’re standing in the right place at the right time, that path is well-lit. People with capital and influence can make pronouncements about the utility of this approach, and how humans should merely step aside and applaud… Or perhaps we can show up to bend the curve. We can decide that technology exists to create opportunity, to help people find resilience, meaning and connection. We can realize that technology changes the status quo, and that change is up to us. Perhaps the tech industry can eagerly accept boundaries, responsibilities and obligations that match the leverage at their disposal. Peter Parker’s Uncle Ben was right. It’s possible to use this moment of power to eagerly seek out responsibility. 

Apple Without AI Looks More Like The Coca-Cola Company Than High-Growth Tech. The emergence of AI as a pivotal factor in technological advancement has placed Apple in a challenging position. Once celebrated for its revolutionary innovations, Apple now faces uncertainties as investors scrutinize its future prospects. Despite its substantial cash reserves, Apple's ability to effectively compete in the AI arena remains uncertain. Investors are evaluating the company's potential for adaptation amidst evolving market dynamics. “It’s become more of a value stock, a bit like Coca-Cola,” said Philip S. Blancato, chief executive officer at Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management  and chief market strategist at Osaic. “All the things you want that’s going to offer you a defensive profile and market rate returns for the foreseeable future until they have a new catalyst.” #HighGrowth #Transformation #Innovation #AI #GenAI #Business #Opportunity #Tech #Magnificent7 I Bloomberg I Jeran Wittenstein

🌟 Let's talk about technology! 🌟 - Technology is like a magic wand that can transform our lives with just a tap or a click. It's the tool that connects us, empowers us, and drives us towards a brighter future. - From smartphones to AI, technology surrounds us in every aspect of our lives. It's not just about fancy gadgets; it's about innovation, progress, and endless possibilities. - Embracing technology means stepping into a world where the only limit is our imagination. It's about pushing boundaries, disrupting norms, and shaping the world we want to live in. - Whether you're a tech enthusiast or a casual user, there's no denying the impact technology has on our daily routines, work environments, and even our social interactions. - In this fast-paced digital age, staying updated with the latest tech trends is crucial. It's not just about keeping up; it's about staying ahead of the curve and leveraging technology to elevate our personal and professional growth. - Remember, technology is a tool, not a replacement. It's up to us to wield it responsibly, ethically, and with a mindset focused on creating positive change in the world. - So, let's keep exploring, innovating, and pushing the boundaries of what technology can do. The future is in our hands, and with technology by our side, the possibilities are truly limitless. 💡🚀 #technology #innovation #digitaltransformation #futuretech #techrevolution #staycurious #embracechange #poweroftechnology

In the labyrinth of the tech world, I've witnessed some interesting patterns. Companies that truly harness their IT investments don't just buy the latest gadgets or software. They have a clear vision: Exactly what purpose does this technology serve? They learn to use this tech to its full potential, enlightening their teams, daily. And they ensure it's seamlessly integrated and functional for their workforce. Nothing flashy. Simply meaningful. #TechStrategy #MaximizedInvestments

🚀 The Economist just served up some food for thought: Once upon a time, moving fast and breaking things was the startup way. Regulators? Slow and steady, waiting for the dust to settle. But guess what? Times have changed! Now, it's the trustbusters who are sprinting and smashing 💥 Here's the scoop on U.S. regulatory moves: 1️⃣ Big Tech is getting called out for monopolizing by tying businesses to their ecosystem, creating scarcity, and jacking up prices. 2️⃣ They're also under fire for market control through competitor buyouts disguised as "investments." Nvidia is playing the monopoly game 🕹, while Microsoft is leading the acquisition charge—but they’re not alone. Regulators aren't just eyeing AI models; they’re also focused on apps and essential hardware (looking at you, Nvidia). But here's the kicker: tech today is cash-intensive. Without Big Tech's resources, innovation might stall 🛑 Plus, over-regulating could give China a leg up 🇨🇳 So regulators have to move fast but try not to wreck everything in their path. Let's see if they can pull it off! 🔍 👉 [Read more here](https://lnkd.in/e6EP88AQ)

technology especially digititization enables seamless flow of data and AI is a potent tool for data analytics an essential input for policy making. At the same time there are concerns regarding data privacy, data piracy and cyber security. Technology is like fire given to man by Prometheous .

Technology affects us not just as consumers but as citizens. In the twenty-first century, the digital is political. It can be hard to see the political significance of inventions that, at first glance, seem to have nothing to do with politics. When confronted with a new gadget or app, we tend not to think first of all about its implications for the political system. Instead we want to know: what does it do? How much does it cost? Where can I get one? This isn’t surprising. In general, technology is something we encounter most often as consumers.