Marvin Liao’s Post

There is a strategic imperative and a moral obligation to assist Ukraine to win this war as rapidly as possible. The deliberate Russian attack, using precision missiles against the children at the Okhmatdyt hospital, provides us with more evidence for why this is so. Let’s hope that those attending the NATO summit decide that a shift in strategy for the war is necessary. My latest at Futura Doctrina. #Ukraine #military #strategy #leadership https://lnkd.in/gkNZNE7R

#Russia is handling #defectors today similarly to how the #Sovietunion did during the #Coldwar. https://lnkd.in/eUYEsMdw The Soviet Union often used tightly scripted, televised press conferences and interviews of Western defectors/redefectors soon after they arrived to take advantage of quick propaganda opportunities. Whether the defector’s story was true or not was not the primary criterion. The main goal was to portray a person from the West who actually agreed with the Soviet Union’s political line. Western defectors often came to regret their choice of going to the Soviet Union, but their later disenchantment was obviously not publicized. The West sometimes did the same in reverse, but there were many fewer defectors TO the Soviet Union than there were FROM it. The West could be more selective in how it used their stories, and defectors to the West were more likely to publish their stories in books and articles. The Soviet Union had less material to work with, as Russia does today. See my article from a couple of years ago in which I discuss the different handling of defectors in each direction. https://lnkd.in/es_p744c

No end in sight... US estimates almost 500,000 Russian and Ukrainian military casualties in fighting in the conflict so far. This data has been "estimated" using satellite imagery, communication intercepts, social media and news media dispatches from reporters in the country, as well as official reporting from both governments. Moscow is believed to routinely undercount its war dead and injured, and Kyiv does not disclose official figures. #Ukraine was said to have close to 70,000 killed and 100,000-120,000 wounded. Russia’s standing army is between two to three times larger than Ukraine’s, and the country has a larger population from which to replenish its frontline soldiers. The reports of 120,000 Russian soldiers killed is considerably higher than the numbers confirmed by Russian journalists monitoring the conflict. Using open-source data, Meduza and BBC Russian have confirmed the deaths of 30,000 Russian soldiers with social media posts from relatives, reports in local media, or local government statements. A leaked assessment from the Defence Intelligence Agency in April that said Russia had sustained as many as 223,000 casualties but just 43,000 killed in action. Similarly, Ukrainian casualties could have reached 131,000 soldiers, the document said, including a maximum 17,500 killed on the battlefield. The UN’s Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (HRMMU) confirmed that 9,000 civilians had been killed so far in the conflict. The mission warned that the actual toll is likely to be far higher than the number of officially confirmed deaths. Russia cannot give up, it can't lose, because of the desperate consequences for the Russian regime, and Ukraine has not run out of the will to fight and isn't prepared to give up the territory that's been occupied, it just wants more help to take it back. And that will take us into 2024 and possibly into 2025. Uktaine will need about $100 billion a year in total from all its supporters, at least, in 2024 and 2025. Any supposed draw in the conflict would be a win for #Russia. The long-term consequences of a Ukrainian defeat are often understated. Only the #West, rather than either warring party, can decide the victor. #ukrainewar https://lnkd.in/dd45v4qZ

Espionage Drama: Russian Disinformation Digest Recent arrests in Europe, including Germany and Poland, have revealed alleged Russian espionage operations and plans to commit violent acts on European soil. The arrests have sparked concerns about the extent of Russian espionage and infiltration in the West, with suspects accused of spying on military sites, planning attacks on military infrastructure, and targeting high-profile individuals, such as the president of Ukraine. ✅ Read our verified analysis here: https://lnkd.in/eDthqmam

#HWAGmonitoring - RUSSIAN TG channels attempt to show Israel’s no response as weak ❌Narrative: Russian propaganda TG channels are amplifying tensions between Iran and Israel, aiming to depict Israel as the aggressor attacking an “innocent” Iran. Simultaneously, they criticize Israel for (so far) not retaliating, calling Netanyahu weak and shameful to his people. ✅Explanation/Debunk: Propaganda aims to provoke Israel into retaliation, diverting attention from Ukraine and feeding the propagandists' fascination with conflict and war. Iran's statements post-attack, indicating an intent to de-escalate and refrain from further attacks, don't suggest goodwill as propaganda is pushing. Instead, they signal Iran's acknowledgment that its extensive attack failed to yield any operational success, highlighting a limitation in its military capabilities against Israel and its allies.

Russian authorities have been preparing the Russian population 10 years for the Ukraine war by a systematic propaganda operation. Novaya Gazeta Europe and Dekoder have conducted a special project to analyze the propaganda that has made millions of Russians believe war is the surest route to peace. They analyzed 3.5 million articles by RIA Novosti — Russia’s chief propaganda vehicle — to understand how Russia propaganda works to produce support for the war effort. The propaganda plan was to use identical ideologically loaded phrases in tens of thousands of its news pieces. The repeated scripts told Russians "how to view what was happening around them — and what would happen after 24 February 2022." "Are we fighting Ukraine? That’s because they are killing civilians. Is the West imposing sanctions? That is because it supports “the Kiev regime”. Is Ukraine shelling the civilian population? They have been doing it for eight years. Is Russia mobilising? Yes, to protect civilians. These propaganda narratives have helped millions of Russians accept a state of cognitive dissonance, resolve moral dilemmas, and come up with rational arguments to justify Russia’s war with Ukraine." The message is clear War against Ukraine will bring Peace! This study helps explains how this war has been supported by at least half the Russian population for almost-two-years. #RussianPropaganda #RIANovosti  #RussianDomesticSupport #UkraineWar

Why don't we talk more about the failed Russian offensives? After almost 10 years of war, and almost 2 years of full-scale war, the so-called Russian Federation, which used to have the second-largest army in the world, has only managed to occupy 19% of Ukrainian territory and has taken insane losses of equipment and soldiers since the beginning of the full-scale invasion. Instead, media these days are full of reports on the "failed Ukrainian counteroffensive." Of course, Ukrainians wished more than anyone else to have taken back more of its territory by now, and probably expectations were inflated this summer. But to call it failed is not exactly fair either. Huge results have been achieved in the Black Sea, and Ukraine is constantly increasing its capacity to hit further and further into the Russian logistics chains, etc. When support has constantly been too little, too late, and Ukraine is not even allowed to use the advanced weapons supplied to hit Russian territory - from where the rockets are flying, what more could be expected? Russia is now working hard on spreading its narratives in Western media through intermediaries, useful idiots, and an army of trolls, that: "Ukraine can't win this war," or "Russia is ready for negotiations." This should be interpreted as "we can't do this much longer, and we need a break to regroup and try again." So it's a signal to double down on the support to Ukraine, and then double down again. Because if we do: Russia can't win this war. It's up to us. After centuries of Russian suppression, doesn't Ukraine deserve a sustainable peace when there is a real chance to achieve it? That is by defeating the so-called Russian Federation in Ukraine and by that also reestablishing respect for borders and international law. Слава Україні! Dagens Nyheter Svenska Dagbladet, Sveriges Radio, SVT

My latest article: Since its successful offensive in the summer of 2022, Ukraine’s military has suffered a string of increasingly painful defeats, the latest of which is the loss of the strategically important city of Avdiivka. There is not now, nor has there ever been, a realistic prospect of Ukraine achieving its stated objectives in this devastating war. The humane thing to do is to end the war now by means of negotiation and compromise, but when it comes to peace, NATO never misses an opportunity to miss an opportunity. https://lnkd.in/e2HZman7

No matter how hard the leaders of Europe tries to put it near front and center, most people in their populations will eventually see this as nice to have vs must have - because this is not their war. (And because they are democracies what they vote for is the priority). Strategically, this is the best war for US-NATO. But strategically is long-term, in the short term votes matter. Now the war will continue if the US is in it, even if the rest of NATO is not (they will be albeit reluctantly) - but the political and fiscal costs of supporting Ukraine adds up. US-NATO has to prepare for a long war - not for Ukraine; but last year's of combat has shown that their stockpiles are insufficient for a long drawn out war. Imagine US-NATO, Quad having to respond to 2 large conflicts at the same time. Imagine an adversary is working on a long-term low intensity conflict that drains stockpiles. Or one that uses cannon fodder to take the first blows for 2 years, and shows their hand in the 3rd. But Zelensky and the rest of Ukraine are aware that if they cannot craft a massive victory in 2024, they will have to depend on the whims of the voting publics across all of US-NATO. They will fight where they can when General Mud arrives, and fight where they want when General Winter comes. Wagner did demonstrate it can be done.