People love to forecast. 🔮 I read and aggregated 16 of the top 2024 (crypto market) Predictions so you don't have to. The TLDR? Most people are bullish. 🐂 Bullish on crypto, bullish on institutional adoption (via BTC ETF, then likely ETH ETF)... it feels “consensus” that 2024 will be a good year for crypto. Yes, this is a subset of very much crypto-native firms, but whenever everyone agrees that “it’s a bull market” the market has… a tendency to inflict pain. I’m bullish too. At times it’s easier to predict where we’re going, but it’s much harder to predict when it’ll happen. I agree we will likely be in a good spot at EOY’24 - both in terms of price and working through the backlog of building and shipping… But, maybe over we’re a bit over our skis? Is sentiment is too good relative to what has happened? BTC ETF inflows likely aren’t linear at $1B in inflows each year. What catalyst brings in retail again? People tend to OVER estimate what will happen in 2 years and UNDER estimate what will happen in 10 years. Things don’t go up in a straight line. You can scroll through the summary and the individual reports, but common trends observed in predictions would include being pretty bullish on: - Bitcoin - Bitcoin DeFi (L2s, Ordinals, etc.) - DePin - Solana - Restaking (e.g. EigenLayer) - Crypto x AI (e.g. Vitalik’s new article) - Stablecoins / CBDCs (below) Keep in mind: the consensus is normally wrong and doesn’t lead to outperformance. People don’t have a crystal ball. Read the full report here: https://lnkd.in/gGWse5nh
Great breakdown of the crypto prediction landscape! It's definitely interesting to see the bullish consensus, especially on institutional adoption like ETFs.
Great stuff, Ben. Appreciate you compiling this
Happy to sponsor this particular report. It is an invaluable tool in the web3 venture ecosystem. Well done Ben!
Partner @v3ntures I Founders & Investors at PBW
5moIt’s hard to ignore the crowd, it’s even harder to be a contrarian 🤝