One of the more interesting headlines that recently caught my eye was this one from Circana, as reported by Victoria Kennedy of Eurogamer. They attributed a 40% year-over-year drop in U.S. games hardware sales for May, in part, to the success of a single title: "The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom." This highlights how a game as monumental as Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom can still dominate the market to such an extent that it affects broader sales metrics. This phenomenon supports a trend we’ve extensively discussed: a small number of blockbuster games often capture an increasingly significant portion of players' time and attention. Despite the total number of releases each year, just on Steam, reaching the tens of thousands, the top 10 PC/console titles can easily consume 50% or more of all playtime. Furthermore, several studies, including one from Newzoo in November 2023, suggest that the top 66 games can account for 80% of playtime.
Sterling R.
2w
I'm not sure I believe this at all. Zelda is certainly huge, but those numbers make no sense. Nintendo doesn't even have 30% total market share of the console market, and that doesn't even include mobile or PC! Last year had a lot of hits, so that's probably more of the reason sales are down.
Sam Nouri
2w
You're spot on, Amir Satvat! Your insights into the market dynamics are always profound. Thanks for continuously shedding light on these critical trends. What does the crystal ball tell you about Blizzard Entertainment, Activision ? 😉
Zach Bogatz
2w
If I could have returned tears I would have, I played less then an hour. Most of my friends I know are playing 8+ year old games over modern ones. We’re still playing AoE2 as an example. For me there just hasn’t been much I want to buy. I find myself waiting for friends or colleagues to tell me if something is good instead of looking at reviews etc. I just think the way we consume the market has shifted as a community and people aren’t as willing to buy things without community support. But on the other hand I have seen games have fast success because of how quickly people were talking about it. Helldivers 2 wasn’t on my radar at all until people I knew started talking about it.
The old saying "Correlation does not equate to causation." comes to mind. I can think of multiple economic factors which would be much more likely to impact sales of entertainment than Zelda, and if you look at the titles available, you will find a lot of imitation and duplication as every game company tries to get the crumbs left by the established games. If a player already has a game they like to play, why buy another one like it? The real answer is probably a whole lot more nuanced than just pent up demand for a new Zelda game.
2023 was a juggernaut of a year, of course this year was going to be down. Let us countdown the reasons why: Diablo 4, Tears of the Kingdom, Baulders Gate, Resident Evil 4, Hogwarts, I could go on. Point is, last year was the best year in gaming in a long long time, and the next few years will be down.
I bought and played the heck out of ToK, but only for a few weeks. Once I'd gotten all the temples solved and all of the armor pieces, and more money than I could ever spend, I went over and whacked Gannon and called it a day. Great game, one of the best I've played in years, but to claim that one game alone killed 40% of yoy sales in games? Absolutely ludicrous and I don't think they could have any real numbers to back that claim legitimately.
Ben C.
2w
Just wait till GTA6 comes out. Pretty certain that will lock up a significant portion of gamers attention.
Here's the thing, people want to play games. They want to relax, They want to have fun! However with many games today, they are heavily infiltrated with gatcha and volatile monetization that disrupts gameplay. So when people finds a Good game that doesn't implies that items must be bought, they will stay for a longer period of time. Man I really want to try find some statistics and write an essay on bad monetization design and how it impacts the entire industry!
Dom Spallino
2w
This game and series has replayability and doesn't have any DEI bs/Sweet Baby Inc hasn't touched it lol
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2wHeavy, heavy doubt and some definite grasping at straws. So a 40% drop in hardware sales, not inferred total sales like the article headline suggests. The article does point out that Zelda launched with a special edition console which presumably would have buoyed sales immensely if it was the specific reason. Console lifecycle perhaps a better but not as sensational reason?