You have to be ‘brave and courageous’ to jump on the UK semiconductor scaleup bandwagon - unless you’re fond of rollercoaster rides.
I refer in particular to Berkshire-based 'fabless' #asic (Application-Specific Integrated Circuit) design scaleups EnSilica and Sondrel. They both IPO’d on AIM within a few months of each other in 2022, at 50p and 55p respectively.
I have said before that they were far too previous in hitting public markets. Recent announcements from both companies – and subsequent share price movements – rather make my point.
EnSilica – whose CEO, Ian Lankshear, I have only the greatest regard for – had already surprised the market (well, me at least) just before Xmas with a previously unheralded £1.56m ‘dash for cash’, ostensibly to scale up. EnSilica’s shares were then in steep decline after reaching a delirious 118p peak in Jan. 2023, hitting a nadir of 31p almost exactly a year later.
News of the release of a range of Post-Quantum Cryptography accelerators (cryptographic algorithms that can withstand cyber-attacks from quantum computers), and licences granted to 'a major semiconductor supplier', sent EnSilica’s shares soaring again, reaching a more modest 71p at the end of last month.
Then came two more surprises.
The first, which came on 26th Feb. with EnSilica’s half-term results, was news of a ‘dash for borrowed cash’ to the tune of £1m to tide them over short-term cash flow concerns. This was followed a day later with another surprise dash for (equity) cash via a £1.1m placing, also, ostensibly, to scale up even faster.
Then the following day, with perfect timing, EnSilica announced another major (US$20m) contract. However, in keeping with typical ‘order-to-cash’ timelines in this industry, revenues won’t start to flow till 2025.
EnSilica’s shares closed last Friday (1st March) at 67.5p.
Meanwhile, Sondrel, had been going through all sorts of trauma resulting in a profit warning in January this year, by which time its shares were trading below 6p. But a Daily Mail report in early February that Sondrel’s ASICs were at the heart (so to speak) of Elon Musk’s Neuralink ‘brain chips’ saw its share price more than double.
However, at the end of the month, a cash crunch heavily disguised as a new contract announcement heralded an even more desperate dash for cash at 10p a share. No prizes for guessing where the share price ended last Friday.
The evidence seems clear to me.
The very nature of the #semiconductorindustry involves long sell cycles, irregular order flow, and even longer time to cash.
Management at both EnSilica and Sondrel are struggling to arbitrate the conflict between going for growth and managing cost. And they’re having to do this under the harsh scrutiny of public market investors – and indeed the whole wide world.
These are not teething problems. There is a real risk, in my opinion, that things may not end well. I do truly hope I’m wrong.
#asicdesign
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