Alison King

The Long Drink Company is on fire right now... The most recent RTD alc-bev brand to break $100m in retail sales, Long Drink has been on a growth tear since entering the US market in 2018. Jay-Z has taken notice. Marcy Venture Partners (Jay's VC firm) just announced an undisclosed but 'significant' investment in Long Drink, adding the brand to its portfolio of CPGs which now includes Partake Foods, Savage x Fenty, and Maker Wine. The Marcy investment comes on the heels of a $25m funding round in 2021 featuring several high-profile backers like actor Miles Teller, DJ Kygo, and Rickie Fowler. Quite the crew of influential investment partners. So why is everyone so bullish on Long Drink? Here's what stands out: --- 1 / Unique Product The Traditional Long Drink is a gin-based cocktail blended with grapefruit and juniper berry flavors. Gin as the alcohol base separates Long Drink from the vast majority of competitors in the RTD market which leans towards vodka, tequila, and malt. 2 / Marketing Prowess Long Drink has a fascinating history dating back to the 1952 Olympics in Helsinki. The Finnish government actually commissioned the creation of the drink to satiate the millions of visitors attending the games. It was a smash hit. The brand has done an excellent job blending that nostalgic story with modern day sports marketing tactics, tapping into professional athletes like Finnish F1 driver Kimi Raikkonen and golfer Justin Thomas. 3 / Distribution Focus Now available nationwide, Long Drink started by taking a scaled approach to the US market with a focus on select markets. 2021 marked a key turning point when the brand struck a partnership with Southern Glazer's Wine & Spirits, one of the top distributors in the industry. --- $100m ✅ $200m ❓ We'll see. As a betting man I'd take the under on the timeline to $200m. Regardless, what a great success story. Congrats to the team Brady Evan Burns Sakari Manninen! h/t Numerator for the insights 🙌 #cpg #alcohol #gin #RTD #cocktail

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Chipotle Mexican Grill - Anamoly in this economy even with continued price increases and hardly any innovation (they once showed a spicy chocolate shake in one of their documents a long long time ago). Stock is +30% YTD and +60% past year....... comps +5%, transactions +3% and avg check +2% "Chipotle has become the rare restaurant chain to report rising transactions despite higher menu prices. The company once again raised its prices in October, citing inflation. Others in the restaurant industry have turned to limited-time offers and deals to appeal to customers, particularly those with lower incomes." https://lnkd.in/gXuVhgUn

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"Thanks Kaleigh Theriault, great play by play on the first half, let’s take a look at what’s going to be needed to win the year." 🏈 Halftime Report: Preparing for the second half in the Beverage Alcohol Industry! 🏆 As we take a breather at the halfway point of 2024, it's clear that the beverage alcohol industry has seen some major plays and strategic moves. Let's huddle up and look at the game plan for the rest of the year: 🍺 Beer: The price increases in 2023 are putting pressure on consumers, with long-term inflation effects and multiple drivers pointing to lower volumetrics. To stay in the game, deeper price subsidization for core Beer categories is essential. However, Imports show potential for a positive finish. Maintaining consumer loyalty will be our MVP move here. 🍷 Wine: The $15-$25 range continues to be the sweet spot, driving consumer interest. But to achieve positive trends by year-end, we need to capitalize on Q4 gifting. A big comparable period is coming up, so some price adjustments might be necessary, especially for infrequent Wine shoppers. 🥃 Spirits: We're seeing a continued shakeout as consumers transition from traditional products to RTDs. Flavor and turn-key cocktails are the winning plays, making Q4 critical for gifting and entertaining. Price discounting is already in motion to boost revenue. 🍹 RTD (Ready-to-Drink): RTDs remain a game-changer this year. With their share of total Alcohol growing, we expect more stability in growth rates as the shift from Seltzers slows. Building consumer brand loyalty for Spirits RTDs is crucial, and we need to watch out for potential flavor fatigue in the second half. Let's get ready to tackle the challenges and seize the opportunities ahead! Here's to a successful second half of 2024! 🥂 "Why did the football team go to the bank at halftime? To get their quarterback!" 🏆 #BeverageIndustry #AlcoholTrends #Beer #Wine #Spirits #RTD #MarketInsights #SecondHalf #HalftimeReport Note: This report looks at the 26 week ending period thru July 6th, 2024

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The US Beer industry landscape is changing fast. AB InBev's North America Normalized EBIT declined by over $1.3 B from 2022 to 2023. The volume market share decline (relative to Molson Coors Beverage Company and Constellation Brands) contributed to that EBIT decline by an amount of $400 Million. It has not helped that overall volumes between these three major players has declined by over 4%. It's a general sign of the headwinds facing the beer category as shopper and consumer preferences shift. For #ABInBev, that overall market decline cost them another $200M. A just less than 4% increase in Net Pricing contributed a +ve $560Million to the Normalized EBIT change, but was insufficient to mitigate the increased inflationary unit costs associated with Cost of Sales and the de-leveraging of other SG&A operating expenses. It will be interesting to track how these components of EBIT will change for 2024, given growth constraints associated with market share gains and price increase ceilings. Looks like some drastic OPEX cuts might be the only short-term remedy for now as AB InBev looks to rebuild brand equity and volume share. Send me a DM or write "send" in the comments section and I will forward you the document that also contains the related MVA operating breakdown for #MolsonCoors and #ConstellationBrands. It's interesting to see how and to what extent Molson Coors and Constellation Brands benefited from AB InBev's headwinds. You will also see why Constellation Brands might be the longer term winner here. #Beerindustry #beercategory #beerdistribution #Heineken #BeverageAlcohol #Asahi #Carlsberg #BostonBeer #beer #beverages #BudLight #MillerLite #CoorsLight #Corona #ModeloEspecial

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PRIME DAY LIVE TAKES: DAY 2 We’re wrapping up the second and final day of Prime Day. It’s looking like Amazon has accomplished its goal of beating last year’s Prime Day performance… by a healthy margin. Not only that, but participation from CPG brands this year felt like the highest it’s ever been! Here are some hot takes from Day 2 (maybe a bit less rosy!): 💹 Are the deals fake? - I got questions about price increases ahead of Prime Day, which has the impression of making the deals seem “fake”. (I think this is trending on Tiktok) - This definitely exists, though it’s not so simple to pull off: requires months of planning. “Reference price” is closely monitored and if it moves ahead of Prime Day, you often have to recreate your deals or restructure - In our categories we actually worried about June or July deals or price matching which would make your reference price too *low*, requiring too deep of a discount brands couldn’t afford. On that topic… 🏷️ Price matching from other platforms is getting worse: - Chewy and Target have started price-matching promos or sales prices which can jeopardize Prime Day deals. - Because of this, it’s becoming almost table-stakes to have unique assortments for different retailers. ♻️ Amazon is emphasizing repurchase behavior: - This year, Amazon showcased deals from brands on “Buy It Again” list (appearing high on the homepage) - S&S coupons were everywhere - a 50% coupon was a great follow-on to a deep discount - The mega brands you know were some of the biggest deals - Apple, Dyson, etc. Best Buy now operates as a 3rd party seller - Paired with less prominent badging of deals, feels like Amazon focused on driving sales a bit more than new product discovery 🛠️ Prime Day also had lots of technical issues: - The Amazon advertising console was down for over an hour last night - Brands experienced several strange, new suppressions that prevented them from running coupons or promos. - Prime Day badging displayed somewhat inconsistently, causing confusion for shoppers (and frustration for brands!) The next 2 weeks is critical. The purpose of Prime Day is—and always has been—new customer acquisition. Brands should specifically target new people who visited their pages. Follow-on promos for people still in cart, emails about the follow-on promos (”Did you miss it?” FOMO is strong!), retargeting ads, and repurchase campaigns should all be launched in the coming days. Finally, want to know if your Prime Day was good? My advice: look at your Best Seller Ranking compared to your direct competitors. It’s the simplest measure of relative performance! You can use a tool like Keepa or Helium10 to track both this and price (to see if any brands pulled price increase tricks!). - - - - - Next week, we’ll be aggregating all of Cartograph’s Prime Day performance data and writing a deeper list of learnings from this year.

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The moderation trend is continuing to accelerate! The NA segment of on-premise beer sales in the U.S. jumped 33.7% over the last 52 weeks with broad-based gains in all 50 states! 💪 📈 🍻 At Partake Brewing we are seeing on-premise operators move from offering 1 NA beer option to now several with macros and craft represented in addition to house mocktails. 🍺 🍷 🍹 This is an exciting time for the non-drinker and moderator alike! Gone are the days of water, juice, milk, and soda as the non-alcoholic options. 🤩 https://lnkd.in/gibbdbPB

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Why do Duopolies tend to dominate in so many aspects of modern business and what does this mean for emerging CPG? The news last week was that The Walt Disney Company and HBO are teaming up to offer a massive streaming bundle to complete with Netflix. It seems like a very predictable cycle unfolded here…After a few years of disruptive innovation, investors started to lose patience with negative EBITDA, which results in waves of consolidation until we have a De Facto Duopoly in streaming media. Nilesh Sharma wrote an interesting article on how this is common across many industries(link in comments)…there are so many examples: Coke/Pepsi, Apple/Android, and in national retail grocery distribution UNFI/KeHE is obvious. If not for antitrust regulations, these duopolies would more often than not eventually merge into monopolies until some disruptive force comes along to change the paradigm. 👉CPG brands: take a look at national market share in the subcategory you operate in. There is a good chance that it is dominated by two brands, and if not, there is at least trend toward this outcome. 👉Is your product different ENOUGH, to break this cycle? 👉Retailers, in any given metro market, who are the dominant two mainline grocery chains in your market by total share? 👉Are you differentiated ENOUGH from them to compel consumers to change their habits? We all have one thing in common as innovators: we’re trying to break the cycle and acquire market share from what tends to be the natural order of things. In order for us to disrupt, we need to think outside the box. Slightly better versions of what already exists won’t get it done. Pod Foods has been able to take so much national share in the past few years, BECAUSE it is so radically different from the inbumbent model…the same thing is true for ANY disruptive brand. I’ll be at Sweets & Snacks Expo this week and looking forward to seeing a lot of you there. What I’ll be looking for is the product that is the MOST different from the status quo and how we can reach early adopters with it. #disruptiveinnovation #Disneymaxbundle #emergingcpg #podfoods Flowspace Total Quality Logistics Green Spoon Sales Melissa Pashko Caroline Grace https://lnkd.in/d7dYis2C

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I'm beyond HYPED to announce that Wild Bill's has rocketed into the top 5 fastest-growing products on RangeMe, sharing the spotlight with stellar brands like poppi (Mother Beverage), OLIPOP PBC, Perfy, and The Coca-Cola Company. It's thrilling to be recognized among such iconic names! Rocket Pop’s spot on this list transcends mere seasonal trendiness—it’s a testament to its year-round appeal and our commitment to authentically enhancing experiences wherever people gather. I might be a bit biased, but honestly, no one nails experiential, occasion-based selling quite like Wild Bill's. We're not just showing up; we're a major hit across an insane variety of events. I kid you not, we do over 400 events a year—everything from comic and anime conventions to e-sports competitions, county and state fairs, motorcycle rallies, air shows, military reunions, renaissance faires, civil war reenactments, regattas, car shows, steampunk festivals, Scottish and Highland games, Celtic festivals, Italian feasts, food truck festivals and more. At Wild Bill's, we don't just attend these events; we transform them, enhancing every experience with our unique flavors, one sip at a time! To discover more about the Wild Bill's event experience, please check out this video: https://lnkd.in/ewwDA96U NielsenIQ Byzzer powered by NielsenIQ ECRM Allison Ellsworth Vasa Martinez #CPG #Beverage #Retail #Grocery #Foodservice #Events #VeteranOwned

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In-store retail media is expected to grow significantly by 2028, with U.S. spending expected to triple to $1 billion. Leaders in the industry, including Paul Brenner from Vibenomics, a Mood Media company, Wovenmedia CEO Susie Opare-Abetia, and Grocery TV CEO Marlow Nickell, highlight the rise in interest due to the advantages of first-party data as well as the decline in traditional media reach. Despite current challenges like organizational silos and measurement inconsistencies, the potential for targeted advertising at the point of purchase is driving investment. As the industry evolves, standardization and technological advancements will further enhance in-store retail media's impact on sales and brand experience. #RetailMedia #InStoreAdvertising #DigitalTransformation Path to Purchase Institute

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After two decades as the top-selling beer in America, Bud light lost its title last year. Modelo Especial … … took over as the most popular beer tracked in retail channels. The truth is, Bud Light’s downfall has less to do with Bud Light and more with profound changes in the US beer market — especially within the import category — which has disrupted the beer categories. Incidentally, what constitutes ‘Import Beer’ in 2024? Ask Toyota execs about its Camry, — made in Georgetown, Kentucky — for nearly 35 years … “It’s just beer.” — Stephen Carter King Source: Brauwelt [ International Report > The Americas ] #Beer #CraftBeer #NonAlcoholicBeer #Cider #Microbreweries #Taprooms #Brewpubs #ConsumerBehavior #BrandAwareness #EmergingTrends #BusinessIntelligence Slàinte☘️! ✦✦✦ Stephen Carter King Chief of Growth and Marketing and Strategy + CEO of Beerconomy 🍻 Beer Market Analyst with beer market trends, insights, data and forecasts • Thought Catalyst • Sherpa • Advisor • Speaker • Publisher of The Beerconomist

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‘Retail media has changed completely’: The Mars Agency’s Katrina Smart on self-serve, off-site and what’s next >> Smart is Commerce Media Director, Europe, at The Mars Agency, and has a decade of experience in retail strategy and media planning. We caught up to get an insider’s view on just how much commerce media has changed in the last two years, and to get the lowdown on how advertisers should approach self-serve retail media platforms, off-site media, and rising complexity.

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Coke vs. Pepsi? Not so fast.   For the first time, Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. has now claimed the #2 soda spot in America, surpassing PepsiCo, who had held the position for over two decades. Their innovative marketing initiatives and unique blend of flavors have truly set them apart from the competition. I had the chance to discuss Dr. Pepper's remarkable rise with The Food Institute, emphasizing their strategy and how they have particularly resonated with the younger demographic, who crave diverse flavors beyond traditional cola.   In the article, I mentioned: "Dr. Pepper has distinguished itself through effective marketing campaigns that emphasize its unique flavor and individuality. This strategy resonates particularly well with younger demographics seeking alternatives to traditional cola drinks."   With Dr. Pepper's leap to the #2 position, do you think they have a shot at dethroning The Coca-Cola Company from the #1 spot? In which other categories do you think a shift like this is possible? Read the full article here: https://lnkd.in/g572y5jv   #MarketingStrategy #BeverageIndustry #Innovation #DrPepper

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The non-alcoholic spirits category is building amazing momentum in the US. In fact, over Easter the non-alc spirits became the fastest growing category within alcohol. Sales were up a huge 101% YoY and growth was 3x faster than any other category! It's great to see non-alc spirits continue to gain traction amongst consumers, and what's even more impressive is that CleanCo continue to outperform the category so far in 2024! --- Source: NIQ Measured Off Premise Channels (Easter = 2 weeks ending 04/06/24) #nonalcoholic #nonalc #nonalcoholicspirits #drinksindustry

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Less ‘Pomp And Circumstance.' Reebok CEO Todd Krinsky, is both sensitive to the narrative that there is a consumer protest movement afoot — and is not dismissive of it. Reebok consumers are crucial for Krinsky and Authentic Brand Group in 2024, especially given how important swing consumers are to winning the fourth place ( footwear) position. “Reebok world should do, in my opinion, everything they can to get them,” As a consumer strategist who supported Reebok's bid. Krinsky and his team are not “denialists” and are doing everything to earn consumer support. Spokesperson ABG said in a statement that the Reebok campaign is “building a historic and unified holistic movement to make Reebok number one again,” noting ABG’s (other brands) high approval rating among consumers and gains with “longtime Nike constituencies" Reebok’s looking to poach Nike consumers  as the summer heat's up provide a last look at the protest consumers. While the Nike camp downplays any challenges with Nike consumers, the Reebok campaign will be engaged in a on-going effort to bring these consumers into its camp. #Reebok #footwear #sports #basketball #culture #consumers #growthreebok #toddkrinsky #sportsbusness #shaquilleoneal #communities #bokkids #reebokfam #reebokkids

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"The warehouse club space is dominated by three major players—Costco Wholesale, Sam’s Clubs, and BJ’s Wholesale Club. Costco Wholesale Corporation is headquartered in Issaquah, WA and leads the category. The company is a descendent of Price Club, founded in 1976 in San Diego, and a second chain called Costco, whose first location debuted in Seattle in 1983. The two merged in 1993 as PriceCostco and transitioned to simply Costco in 1997. Near the end of last year, Costco had over 870 locations globally, including 600 in 47 U.S. states and Puerto Rico and another 180 in 9 Canadian provinces. As of the end of its latest fiscal year in September 2023, Costco had revenues of $237.7 billion. It ranked third in the National Retail Federation’s 2023 ranking of the top 100 U.S. retailers, behind Walmart and Amazon. Costco garners 8 percent of U.S. grocery sales, translating to a strong $1,746 in sales per square foot, according to analyst dunnhumby, and it accounts for 25 percent of its customers’ grocery wallet. More than two-thirds (67 percent) of its customers feel a strong emotional connection to the brand." Full article by Produce Blue Book #futureoffood #futureofretail

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Freedom Friday: The Underlying Truth Behind Closed Doors Over the last 5 years, I have learned many guiding truths within the successes and failures of CPG. This one hits home the most, and is a no-brainer. However, it is the one that if you miss, you will lose. Guaranteed. It almost took us out of the race in 2022. Truth: Product Quality 1. If your product sucks, fix it immediately. 2. If your product is not great, fix it immediately. 3. If your product is not best in category, fix it immediately. Get the point? You cannot outspend poor product quality on a product that is not best in class, thinking you will somehow, someway, find a way. You are burning money. And that is a cardinal sin. From 2020-2022, I wanted to chuck our business overboard. Because I knew, we were not a great product. 1. Our ice cream was hard out of the freezer and crumbled quickly 2. The product was not 'sweet enough' nor 'flavorful' 3. The chocolate coating on our ice cream bars cracked and fell off the bar too easily. As a team and external vendor partners, I internalized the thought that if we cannot figure this out, I do not want to be a part of it anymore. Why? Because it did not meet a standard of excellence that I knew was necessary, and the solution was outside of my scope of expertise and experience. In 2022, I spent ALL OF MY TIME in R&D labs and facilities, working with the 'Best of the Best' in the ice cream industry, putting together formulations that may improve product quality. We did things differently. We did not listen to the 'Science Jargon' of 'How to make ice cream right.' No. We did things differently. We strayed far from the rules. We invested tons of money piloting these formulations on our equipment. Some formulas worked, some did not. Fast forward to today, I sleep well. Because I go to bed and wake up in the morning, knowing that we finally cracked the code. We have the best in class products. And without that passion pursued in 2022, we would not be here today. Ever since we launched our new products formulations in the club channel, our sales have been TAKING OFF. We have only received 5-STAR REVIEWS. And my joy for the business has never been greater, as I feel I am finally adding value to people's life in a way I had not experienced before. My advice to fellow brands: Stop everything, and fix your product. You will live happily ever after. Onwards!

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Still strong results for NARTD (Soft Drinks) players with top & bottom line beat for both PepsiCo and Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. Yet, that's not to say all is rosy, with all the growth being exclusively price driven with negative volumes across all the main categories. Trend that is driven by a weaker demand from lower-income consumers and that we do not expect to revert in the upcoming quarters To be monitored carefully at a time consumption patterns are increasingly diverging in most of the developed economies (US, Europe and beyond...) between lower-income consumers & the rest Specifically: Pepsico Q1 FY24 results summary: • NR: $18.3bn • OSG: 2.7%; Volume: -2%; Price/ mix: 5% • GM%: 54.8%; -43 bps vs Q1 FY23 • OP%: 16.1%; +40 bps vs Q1 FY23 • Beat analysts’ consensus for revenue as well as EPS Keurig Dr Pepper Q1 FY24 results summary: • NR: $ 3.47bn • OSG: 2.8%; Volume: -0.3%; Price/ mix: 3.1% • GM%: 56%; +393 bps vs Q1 FY23 • Adj. OP%: 23.8%; +300 bps vs Q1 FY23 Results by Division: • U.S. Refreshment Beverages o NR: $ 2,093m o OSG: 4.3% (Volume: -1.3%, Price/mix: 5.6%) o Adj.OP%: 29.7 %; +440bps vs Q1 2023 • U.S. Coffee o NR: $ 911m o OSG: -2.1% (Volume: -0.3%, Price/mix: -1.8%) o Adj.OP%: 31.7%; +110bps vs Q1 2023 • International o NR: $ 464m o OSG: 7.0% (Volume: 4.8%, Price/mix:2.2.6%) o Adj.OP%: 23.5%; +330bps vs Q1 2023 𝗧𝗼 𝗴𝗲𝘁 𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗶𝗻𝘀𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁𝘀, 𝗳𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗼𝘄 𝘂𝘀/ 𝘀𝘂𝗯𝘀𝗰𝗿𝗶𝗯𝗲 𝘁𝗼 𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗙𝗠𝗖𝗚 𝗖𝗘𝗢𝘀 𝗜𝗻𝘀𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁𝘀 𝗻𝗲𝘄𝘀𝗹𝗲𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿: 𝗵𝘁𝘁𝗽𝘀://𝗹𝗻𝗸𝗱.𝗶𝗻/𝗲𝗥𝟴𝘃𝗗𝗽𝘃𝗘 #strategy #cpg #fmcg Frederic Fernandez & Associates

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