Allow me to don my Tom Clancy hat.
The October surprise will be World War III. Russia's war with Ukraine will expand into a war with NATO. Iran will formally enter the field against Israel. China will make a play for Taiwan. North Korea invades South Korea. The US can beat the shit out of all four. On paper. But, to an extent, these four countries have one thing in common: a geographical ability to turtle. Russia is arguably the weakest link (the weakest link here is the power that will resort to nukes first), with NATO forces ready to cross the border in a moment's notice. That's why we should be wary of Chinese movement in that direction; they will be crucial to shoring up the European front.
Trump will promise to get us out of a suicidal world war we have no business being involved in, day one. If he wins, he wins. If he loses, there will be a full blown coup funded and prepped by our enemies. That's where World War III will be fought. First in the voting booth. Then as a civil war on our soil. All of the external conflicts: in Ukraine, Poland, Israel, Korea, Taiwan -- they can hold in stasis indefinitely ... every dollar, every ruble, every yen, every flying bag of poop will be dedicated to winning here, in the US, where things matter. We'll probably figure out what all them Chinamens have been up to with our real estate. Every other McMansion in our suburbs is probably wall-to-wall Chinamen waiting for go time. It's gonna be War of the Worlds but instead of Martians it's Chinamen. Trump will call them good upstanding American patriots, born and raised in Des Moines and other some such places, and it goes without saying that any liberal who has to face down a swarm of meat-cleaver armed Chinamens all infected with lab-grown bird flu would prefer to spontaneously combust than to make any assumptions about their intentions.
(I'm not racist. It's the hat.)
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