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Nikaido’s performance in ‘Shōgun’ is not talked about enough. Sure, Hoshi gave a really cute performance, but Nikaido’s exchanges with Hira are one of the most chilling and entertaining parts of the show.
The amount of shivers ‘council will answer to me’ and ‘scratching fate’s eyes out’ scenes gave me is beyond words… 🥶
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Nikaido was sublime but i just love Hoshi stealing the scenes with her precious timing, it adds humor to a very tense story, i just love it.
Plus she had that scene on the finale with Blackthorne on the canoe that really stuck with me.
Both of them will probably be nominated though and both are really deserving.
ReplyCopy URLIt's all about the 3x Best Drama Series winner Succession!
Will stick to the order I was planning so I don’t lose track but Wolfali’s said most of it so please expect a lot of “ditto” or repetition.
DRAMA SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Elizabeth Debicki – Surprise SAG winner. Only thing that makes me hesitant is that I love the performance which always has me worried.
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2. Lesley Manville – Ditto Wolfali (and recommend reading his expert analysis above). Manville should be secure and the only thing that could really unseat her is if actors going really really in on TMS.
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3. Moeka Hoshi – I kinda dislike having her this high as I can’t pretend my gut isn’t telling me that I’m ignoring how first season dramas rarely max out with actors. And that’s what this would be, let’s be honest. I am intensely sceptical that voters will remember her but Shogun seems to be winning series and they were switched on enough to pick out the likes of Sabrina Impacciatore last year (albeit for an actually Emmy worthy performance). If I was a braver man I’d be predicting Shogun to miss this category but I’d like to save face so am sticking with one making it and Nikaido being snubbed. Could equally see them being the reverse for all the reasons Wolfali mentioned but my gamble is that being significant at the beginning of the season is better than at the end unless you have a truly huge moment.
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4. Nicole Beharie – TMS in this category feels a bit like Mrs America in that I can just tell I’m going to pick the wrong performers to get in. I’m uneasy on going overboard on the show anyway as I like it a lot but I can’t pretend that the actors haven’t backed it even in the darker times. Beharie not only has the best ballot placement of her co-stars but also has maybe the most memorable moment of the season. Even more crucially, her standout work is early on so even voters who haven’t finished yet should have seen it. As Wolfali mentioned, voters showed last time that they have they are following this show and not just sticking to the same defaults. It would be strange for Beharie to miss whilst others with less showy work pop up. The real detraction is that she is a new member of the cast and the Emmys have shown in the past that they can lean towards established characters in their nomination breakthrough pecking order.
5. Holland Taylor – Our Margo Martindale to continue the Mrs America comp. Shares the big moment with Beharie and is an industry fave. Nom for Hollywood a few years ago shows that they will check her off for being in something they watched. Only pause is that she would be in guest if the rules weren’t stupid.
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6. Christine Baranski – Having not yet watched the show, I can’t tell how much this pick makes sense vs. being a default selection. I definitely agree with wolfali’s assessment that the show only broke at SAG because of weak competition. But the competition is weak here as well so if I’m hedging my bets on Shogun and refuse to go for more than three on TMS then I kind of have to have her.
7. Karen Pittman – This is where I think the established character factor will come into play. She has laid the groundwork with voters for three seasons and now that can pay off as they struggle to fill out 7 slots. Again ditto wolfali when it comes to her campaigning but also being a performance that could so easily actually be receiving a shrug.
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8. Greta Lee – I held onto her for so long because I just think she clears the rest of her co-stars with ease and reception at the time of the show airing (apart from Beharie’s moment) seemed to reflect this. But she missed Critics Choice inexplicably when she was having a simultaneous big moment for Past Lives so should have been front of their minds. She’s also deep into the ballot which I really do believe matters in situations like this where voters may just be trying to fill out the ballot with who they like. She has neither the big moment nor has she always been in the cast, having joined in season two. Voters will need to be *really* astute and I’m just not sure I believe that.
9. Fumi Nikaido – The Emmys might be broken and Shogun may just get everything. This performance was a big Emperor’s Clothes one on the internet so maybe that can seep into enough voters’ consciousness.
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10. Julianna Marguiles – Her being dropped from season 4 makes the possibility that the industry doesn’t know she’s been cancelled less likely. But that chance is still there. And without her comments, she would be fervently in the mix as the performer with the strongest recent Emmy history.
11. Cynthia Nixon – If they are actually big Gilded Age fans, maybe she joins the party.
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12. Yuka Kouri – Ditto Wolfali but also my own comments above about Shogun. Even after googling I’m still not sure who her character is but maybe voters won’t care lol?
This category feels like it’s going one of two ways: they only nominate The Crown, TMS and Shogun performers, or they only nominate a bunch of individuals with passion which includes a bunch of randoms we had no idea they’d like. In the case of the latter, please see the predictions center. My only remaining comment is that I haven’t included Kristin Scott Thomas because I sadly do not believe the Slow Horses breakthrough is happening.
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DRAMA SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Billy Crudup – Unlike many, I’m pretty certain he’s not winning now Asano has entered the fray. But he’s locked for the nom with the field as it is.
2. Tadanobu Asano – Such a distinctive character and performance that I feel confident that voters will have bothered to discover who he is by now. But even if they haven’t and just love Shogun, he’s first from the show on the ballot for half of them. As mentioned above, once nommed I suspect he’s winning.
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3. Jon Hamm – He’s been campaigning his ass off and arguably talking about this even more than Fargo, which is strange for a supporting role. In a more competitive year he’d probs be on the bubble but as things are I’d be pretty shocked to see such a loved performer not making it for a character that played such a vital role in the latest season of a show they watch. It will take a rejection of TMS for him to miss, which I do think remains possible, but is ultimately not feasible as a prediction.
4. Khalid Abdalla – As already discussed several times, I’m predicting them to struggle to fill out these slots so will turn to shows that they like and watch even if don’t love anymore. The Crown is absolutely that and Abdalla is not just first of his co-stars on A-Z ballots but is the first of anyone and playing a memorable real life persona. The fact that it’s a guest performance might matter but part of me questions whether many even watched part two given the viewing figures. If that’s the case, he plays a huge role in what they may have only seen.
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5. Salim Daw – Just moved him higher. It’s a double BAFTA nommed performance which ultimately shows it has resonated with industry albeit across the pond. In a thin field, that alone may be enough to get him here. But he also has the show behind him for the same reasons as Abdalla. I have him lower mainly just on being slightly further into the ballot than his co-star and that betting on two Crown guest star equivalents to make it in Supporting feels risky.
6/7. Tokuma Nishioka/Takehiro Hira – In truth I think one of these at least is more likely than Daw but I can’t tell which so am sticking both in the last two slots. As with Supporting Actress it’s hard to tell where the line will be drawn. My gut instinct says that these two stood out enough to both get in alongside Asano, with Nishioka slightly ahead due to both veteran status and memorable moment.
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8. Jonathan Pryce – Is it wishful thinking to leave him out? Maybe but I don’t think it is that much as I didn’t hate him this season like I did in 5. My belief is that unless they are going to really go hard for The Crown (which is possible even if they don’t love it anymore due to the contenders available) then anyone who has watched will not be bothered by his performance. Equally he could just be name checked (both actor and persona) and even make it instead of the other two co-stars I’ve already mentioned.
9. Mark Duplass – Please God no. But also he’s made it before (albeit when he was actually good) and TMS could be set for a Handmaids Season 4 style jump back in noms.
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10. Nathan Lane – The kind of actor that actors like enough that he could even make it without them actually liking Gilded Age. They tend to namecheck shows more than people nowadays though.
11. Ke Huy Quan – I may not have watched Loki but I did hear people talking about his performance and in this field that’s got to count for something. The non-lead categories are also where the likes of Mandalorian have been able to sneak actors in.
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12. Ed McVey – Mostly just tacked him on because stopping at eleven felt stupid. They could really double down lazily on The Crown, or they could actually just go with the series regulars only. William gets a lot of focus in Part 2 and idk some voters may have found him sweet rather than grating.
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8. Jonathan Pryce – Is it wishful thinking to leave him out? Maybe but I don’t think it is that much as I didn’t hate him this season like I did in 5. My belief is that unless they are going to really go hard for The Crown (which is possible even if they don’t love it anymore due to the contenders available) then anyone who has watched will not be bothered by his performance.
I don’t think so. My opinion of him in this season is benign so he could go either way I think.
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Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
1. Billy Crudup, The Morning Show — Unfortunately I don’t think he’s winning but as the most nominated drama male performance of this cycle and the only returning nominee he will almost certainly be nominated regardless.
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2. Tadanabu Asano, Shōgun — Only a peg lower simply because Shōgun is still untested and it did seem like he peaked right towards the end of the season’s run. Still it’s not like this isn’t a performance that wasn’t already at the forefront of people’s minds when the show started and he’s one of the first viable candidates on the ballot.
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3. Khalid Abdalla, The Crown — Things begin to get really murky here and yet oddly, barring Shōgun moving, my predictions haven’t really changed that much since the centre opened. I feel like it’s easy (and understandably so) to forget they’re essentially guest performances and how much of a rollercoaster the reception of The Crown season 6 was that actually Abdalla’s and Daw’s performances were quite well received and both were recognised with Critics Choice and BAFTA nominations for it. I’m not neccessarily using the former as a reason for predicting him but at the same time I think his out of nowhere nomination there last year could speak to how much of a fixture he has been on the circuit (he’s the only cast member who has been campaigning as actively as Debicki has and was the only who attended the Emmys in January). He is also the first viable contender alphabetically on half of these ballots with a performance tied directly to a derby sweeping one and we’ve seen people coattail for much less.4. Salim Daw, The Crown — I have wondered how much we’ve been predicting him because we’ve assumed they’ll just go heavy on The Crown in this weak field but at the same time it feels hard to see how Abdalla would get nominated without him (I do not believe this is a case where one could be 7th and the other could be 8th because this is simply not that deep a field) and he’s the only one out of the three supporting men from The Crown who gave a performance that generated passion in the preceding season (which we’ve seen help when voters have caught up in the past).
5. Jon Hamm, The Morning Show — I actually recently had a brief period of time where I had him out of my predictions because I wondered if we were ultimately just predicting him simply because he was Jon Hamm in a show we know voters are watching in a field where they don’t have many other options. After all his name recognition didn’t help him to land anywhere at the winter awards (although I suppose given the Succession spamming who can fault him for that) and the Emmys have been less prone to name-checking people in shows they like. I think the question for me is whether this is ultimately a Sterling K. Brown in Maisel situation or a Jane Lynch in Maisel situation. I suppose what makes me lean more towards the former is that, just like Brown, Hamm is being tipped to get nominated for a show that will almost certainly be a contender elsewhere and another show that he is a proven contender in his own right for. And whilst I do think we could be counting out Mark Duplass too soon I don’t think he is the Marin Hinkle of The Morning Show.
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6. Jonathan Pryce, The Crown — It feels odd to have him this low (or rather substantially lower than his co-stars) when every single actor who has been nominated at the Globes for The Crown has made it in one way or another but I’m just not entirely sure many people feel passionate about this performance even if they do feel passionate about Pryce as a performer. Although I suppose on the other hand that could be something that has helped the initial feelings of him being miscast from the previous season die down a bit and make him a more compelling choice on the ballot for voters struggling to pad out.7. Takehiro Hira, Shōgun — It’s quite possible that this is simply too subdued a performance for voters to even care but he’s the most narratively prominent supporting actor after Asano and he still has a high enough ballot placement for voters scrambling for options to notice him. Would feel more confident on an unlimited ballot.
8. Tokuma Nishioka, Shōgun — Had more of a moment than Hira but is less established to English speaking audiences and a disadvantaged ballot placement. Likewise I’m not entirely sure his moment translated quite so much into one where people started to clamour for him to get nominated like with his co-stars. Could get swept up by the Shōgun wave nonetheless.
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9. Mark Duplass, The Morning Show — The fact that voters have been selective about who they choose from this show makes me think that he will be left out on nominations morning but at the same time he’s a previous nominee in a perennial acting contender and randomly got a Golden Globe nomination for a more polarising performance over Evan Peters and Murray Bartlett for season 2.10. Benny Safdie, The Curse — Auteurs are usually the first from their shows to get nominated and this is both a performance that has shown itself to be well received and Safdie has shown himself to be someone with growing respect in the industry. It’s hard to see how he would get in without a big breakthrough for the show though (which seems ever less likely) and even then it was only last year we see Christina Ricci miss out for a low tier Showtime series contender because voters liked the ensembles of the top three contenders that much more.
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- Elizabeth Debicki ("The Crown")
- Hacks in all categories
- Juno Temple ("Fargo")
Her being dropped from season 4 makes the possibility that the industry doesn’t know she’s been cancelled less likely. But that chance is still there.
Part of me actually wonders if she really has been cancelled any more than the outrage around her comments has been more visible than one would think and that has just made people sour on her (wasn’t the “reason” they gave for her exiting season 4 that she was doing a play on Broadway)? After all she still is on the ballot. I think I’m expecting at this point more that she’ll be left by voters who are conscious (which I do get the sense you see signs of here and there — Brunson noticeably didn’t mention her when she was raving about the cast to Aniston in their actors on actors and Joel Kim Booster who was passionately live-tweeting the show laat Summer was rather critical of her actions on social media) rather than the voting body being conscious.
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- Elizabeth Debicki ("The Crown")
- Hacks in all categories
- Juno Temple ("Fargo")
Part of me actually wonders if she really has been cancelled any more than the outrage around her comments has been more visible than one would think and that has just made people sour on her (wasn’t the “reason” they gave for her exiting season 4 that she was doing a play on Broadway)? After all she still is on the ballot.
I will say though it’s been about 7 or 8 years since she’s been nominated anyway so industry opinions on her could have changed over time hence her not making it for the prior season, and certainly the voting body has.
Also I do think TMS is a big test of the bias towards establishing actors (with otherwise ongoing casts) because it has so many that are later season additions.
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Lead Actress in a Drama Series
1. Anna Sawai, Shōgun — This year’s Sarah Snook even if she somehow doesn’t wind up winning in the end.
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2. Jennifer Aniston, The Morning Show — I understand that she missed last time round in spite of getting in at SAG and who is to say she won’t do the same in spite of getting in there this time round but I think the make-up of the fields is key here. When Aniston missed for season 2 she was already ostensibly starting off third after Zendaya and Linney without anyone really mentioning the rise of Yellowjackets, Witherspoon’s material being much better received by audiences or the fact that the Killing Eve women were back in their prime Spring slot. This time round she’s arguably starting off in first (or at least was until Sawai moved here) as the only person in this category who has shown any sort of industry pulse with her SAG nomination (something she managed to achieve over Witherspoon in spite of potentially having vote-splitted at the Globes). When the chances of you winning are slim no one is really safe but there’s only so much one can fall in a barren category.
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3. Maya Erskine, Mr. and Mrs. Smith — It feels odd to have her this high when she’s someone who hasn’t been nominated before and her show is so untested but at the same time Mr. and Mrs. Smith stands out as a show they’d both likely have watched and is likely to be down their street and it’s hard to see why they would nominate one Smith and not the other with how even both categories are in competition at this point.
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4. Imelda Staunton, The Crown — I tend to think that period drama leads either are very strong and always get in (see Brosnahan for Maisel or Colman and Foy themselves for The Crown) or appeal to a smaller group of people and only get in when the field allows them to (see Fanning and Hoult or the Downton leads). Staunton firmly belongs in the latter camp and I’ve never felt like she was a lock to be nominated even though this field is ridiculously slim simply because I thought there was no reason why she shouldn’t have been able to get in over Aniston at SAG given how close part 2 had aired to voting taking place and the TMS women facing a more obvious vote-split. I think whether she gets in depends on how much people like this season of The Crown. I don’t think that its overperformance at the winter awards compared to last season is neccessarily because people like season 6 more any more than it is facing less competition and the negative discourse leading up to it was much quieter (and so in that case I do think Staunton is quite vulnerable to missing out for people in shows with more passion). But in the case that they do actually like The Crown season 6 more than they did season 5 I think she should be able to get swept up in that love simply because the consensus was, amongst people who both loved and loathed the season, that her performance was a key improved aspect of it.5. Carrie Preston, Elsbeth — I feel ridiculous even predicting her in the first place because it could be that they’re just over network television and The Good Wife universe altogether but something that I’m really keeping an eye on after last year is how people who are the stars of their shows (Preston IS Elsbeth) fare compared to those who are simply the male/female leads of big ensembles. Of course whether they have seen this show in the first place is a question but I think it’s very clear simply from airing on network television alone (never mind the fact that it seems to have reached a certain demographic that network shows never usually do and I’m not sure many shows in these categories overall this year have done) that it is more broadly seen than The Good Fight was (something that I do think has helped from CBS marketing it as a new series as opposed to a spin-off). And whilst Baranski never got nominated for an Emmy for that show (and likewise Preston hasn’t quite reached the same level of critical adoration that she did) there were signs with how she kept turning up at places like the Globes randomly that perhaps she may not have ever been that far off. Also worth mentioning that unlike Baranski voters held on to Preston until the final season of The Good Wife (albeit in different categories of course). Until last year she was also the only person from The Good Fight to ever get nominated at our awards.
6. Reese Witherspoon, The Morning Show — I firmly believe that either she’s safely third after Aniston and Sawai or is fighting for one of those last slots and is just going to miss. For months I had her out after months of thinking that The Morning Show being a series nominee would result in both women finally making it in like both Dead to Me women did and both Killing Eve women did. I think it’s not necessarily the fact she got ignored by the Globes and SAG in spite of them having previously nominated her that makes me shaky about her chances but more that in The Morning Show‘s forward march this year it feels like she’s been left behind a bit and in some ways has fallen a bit backward in support (perhaps unsurprising given the reception to Bradley’s storyline this season). Alas I don’t know whether voters have really watched enough shows this year for her to fall out. At least when Staunton missed last year she was competing against incumbent nominees like Moss and Lynskey. This year Witherspoon is the only incumbent in this category.
7. Emma Stone, The Curse — Would be a very big test of how much the Television Academy membership has shifted since Maniac got rejected and the Twin Peaks actors got shut out simply because their shows were too weird and inaccessible. The fact she’s had such a big year could help but we’ve seen recently how people who are seasoned TV vets tend to get name-checked more easily than those who have come directly from the film circuit (see Hahn getting in over Weisz last year). I think what concerns me here more is that it feels like even the critics seem quite divided over this show when they’re the ones who you’d hope would be supporting it the most (like with Twin Peaks).
8. Carrie Coon, The Gilded Age — I do think people are counting her out too quickly (it has been years since we’ve gone without a HBO lead nominated in this category) and that this feels like a performance that will be much more respected by actors than it is by the internet. At the same time though per my comments about the supporting women I feel like The Gilded Age‘s breakthrough has been much more due to the lack of other options in this field and Coon is disadvantaged by competing against four performers from stronger shows (who have more of a command of the demographics her show is targetting) and being the closest thing to the female lead of a big ensemble there is in this category.
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9. Ella Purnell, Fallout — There are some very valid arguments that have been made about the strength of her show and this category skewing older than it usually does but I just don’t see it. Hard genre shows are struggling more and more when it comes to acting nominations nowadays and whilst I think this show is going to have a good day next week I don’t neccessarily think it has captured the zeitgeist in a way that makes a nomination undeniable for someone who isn’t even being campaigned so actively along with their show. Still visibility is on her side so it would be foolish for me to count her out.
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10. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Justified : City Primeval — We’ve underestimated her twice before and she’s only become more revered since but does anyone care about City Primeval?ReplyCopy URLFYC:
- Elizabeth Debicki ("The Crown")
- Hacks in all categories
- Juno Temple ("Fargo")
Trying to lock in my predictions and something just feels very off about predicting all of those MAMA guest actresses when even here, with stans of Horgan, Coel or Paulson, no one seems to care about their performances in that show. It doesn’t help that I keep thinking this might be a surprise underperformer in main categories like Erskine missing (I did just put her back in tho lol).
So I’m wondering if I might not just do some longshot contenders like Jones for Silo or Krakowski for Elsbeth. The latter actually reminds me of Bernadette Peters getting in for Zoey’s Extraordinary Playlist even if Jane Levy did not.
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