Majority of south-east Asians favour China over US, survey finds
Roula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favourite stories in this weekly newsletter.
More than half of south-east Asians would now prefer to align with China over the US if Asean were forced to choose between the rival superpowers, according to a regional survey by a Singapore-based think-tank, reflecting Beijing’s growing influence in the region.
According to the State of Southeast Asia 2024 survey compiled by the Iseas-Yusof Ishak Institute, 50.5 per cent of respondents opted for China and 49.5 per cent preferred the US if the Association of Southeast Asian Nations had to pick sides — the first time Beijing edged past Washington since the annual survey started asking the question in 2020.
Last year’s survey showed 38.9 per cent preferred China and 61.1 per cent chose the US.
The think-tank’s flagship survey polls people from the private and public sectors, as well as academics and researchers in south-east Asia to present prevailing attitudes among those in a position to inform or influence policy on regional issues.
“It seems like this is the beginning of a trend as . . . this is the first time China has actually [edged past the US],” said Danny Quah, dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore. “But if we look at the underlying data, it is actually more like a see-saw pattern than a trend.”
Among the 10 Asean countries, the possible alignment to China was most evident among respondents from Malaysia, at 75.1 per cent, followed by Indonesia and Laos at 73.2 per cent and 70.6 per cent. They have all benefited significantly from China’s Belt and Road infrastructure initiative and robust trade relations.
China has been Malaysia’s top trading partner for more than a decade and invested billions of dollars across several sectors. Last year the Malaysian government said the Chinese carmaker Geely, which holds a 49.9 per cent stake in local partner Proton, would invest about $10bn in Malaysia’s carmaking hub in the north-western state of Perak.
Reflecting Indonesia’s strong economic ties, president-elect and defence minister Prabowo Subianto on April 1 met Chinese President Xi Jinping in his first overseas visit after winning the election. Last year south-east Asia’s largest economy opened the region’s first high-speed railway, which was jointly built with China.
Meanwhile, Chinese state-owned companies are stepping up their involvement in power infrastructure in Laos, which counts Beijing as its top investor.
This article is from Nikkei Asia, a global publication with a uniquely Asian perspective on politics, the economy, business and international affairs. Our own correspondents and outside commentators from around the world share their views on Asia, while our Asia300 section provides in-depth coverage of 300 of the biggest and fastest-growing listed companies from 11 economies outside Japan.
Conversely, the US has seen a decline in its popularity as the preferred superpower.
Washington gained strong support from the Philippines and Vietnam at 83.3 per cent and 79 per cent, which in part reflects tensions the two have with China due to overlapping claims in the South China Sea.
However, a separate question regarding Washington’s south-east Asia policy revealed that 38.2 per cent felt the level of US engagement with south-east Asia had decreased under President Joe Biden, topping the 25.2 per cent who said it had increased.
Bonnie Glaser, managing director of the Indo-Pacific Program at the German Marshall Fund, a US-based think-tank, said the decline in trust and perception of decreased engagement from the US was notable, adding that its performance had been disappointing.
“There is a high level of expectation in south-east Asia and desire for US engagement, particularly different kinds of engagement than the US is actually offering,” Glaser said. As an example, she raised the Biden administration’s Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, which lacks the concept of market access, including the reduction or elimination tariffs.
Yet the survey showed south-east Asians did not want to choose sides at all. Asked how Asean should respond to the intensifying US-China rivalry, just 8 per cent said the bloc had to choose between them because remaining neutral was impractical, while 46.8 per cent said it should prioritise bolstering its resilience and unity to counter pressure from the US and China.
Other findings of the survey include 59.5 per cent of respondents seeing China as the most influential economic power in south-east Asia, far ahead of the US at 14.3 per cent. Meanwhile, 43.9 per cent said China was the most influential political power in the region, versus America’s 25.8 per cent.
“[The report] is a statement of the fact that people think China has become the most influential economic power,” said Quah at NUS. “But at the same time . . . levels of concern about the degree of influence are actually extremely high. The fact that China is acknowledged as most influential does not mean acceptance of them, similarly if it were the US.”
The survey was conducted between January 3 and February 23, collecting answers from 1,994 people. Among the respondents, 33.7 per cent were from the private sector; 24.5 per cent from the government; 23.6 per cent from academia, think-tanks and research institutions; 12.7 per cent from non-government organisations and media; and the remaining 5.6 per cent from regional or international organisations.
A version of this article was first published by Nikkei Asia on April 2 2024. ©2024 Nikkei Inc. All rights reserved.
Comments