Europe must not be caught short if Trump wins again

The writer is editorial director and a columnist at Le Monde

In May 2017, after two bruising summits with the new US President Donald Trump, German Chancellor Angela Merkel famously told her peers: “We Europeans must now take our fate into our own hands. We have to know that we must fight for our future on our own.” Unfortunately, she never put those historic words into practice. When Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine last year, almost three months after Merkel had left power, the US had to intervene.

Ukrainians and Europeans were lucky enough that the man sitting in the Oval Office was not Trump but Joe Biden. Today, however, alarm bells are ringing in European capitals, where US opinion polls ahead of next year’s presidential election are being monitored with a degree of alarm. In 2016, Europeans were caught by surprise; this time, there are plenty of harbingers of the outcome they dread. Faced with the distinct possibility of Trump returning to the White House, Europeans should brace for the storm. Trump II will be even worse than Trump I, their friends in Washington warn: no more adults in the room, weakened checks and balances, hardened Republicans all around.   

Of course the road to the White House can be full of surprises. But November 5 2024 is only 11 months away. “Whatever happens, Europe must prepare,” Arancha González Laya, dean of the Paris School of International Affairs, says. A former Spanish foreign minister, she has discerned a pattern of America going its own way regardless of European interests, even under Biden. “This is very clear in the economic field,” she tells me. She favours, “as an antidote”, deepening the European single market.

The political culture in Washington is already chaotic and unpredictable enough. Even if Biden wins, he may well be the last pro-European president of a country now turned towards China and the Indo-Pacific. The challenge looming in the defence and security arena is of particular concern in Europe because of Trump’s well-known aversion to Nato; but also because war has returned to the continent. Russia’s war against Ukraine is, after all, a European war. American voters may grow tired of it, but Europeans do not have that luxury. The question inevitably arises, as Congress blocks a package of financial aid for Ukraine: can Europe step up?

It must. Camille Grand, a former Nato assistant secretary-general for defence investment now with the European Council on Foreign Relations, believes that Europe has the capacity to take its share of the burden. “What is needed”, he tells me, “is to think more strategically and to make decisions now. We have been too slow. We need to get this conversation going: what is our plan to complement the American military assistance for Ukraine? What is our plan building up conventional forces and for nuclear deterrence? This is crucial, either to be better positioned in case of a Trump win, or to help Biden sustain support to Ukraine.”  

Interestingly, this conversation is also getting traction in Berlin. In a recent interview, German defence minister Boris Pistorius pleaded with European countries to pay attention to the danger facing the Baltic states, plus Georgia and Moldova. Vladimir Putin’s threats should be taken seriously, he says. European countries must now adapt to the new geopolitical landscape, including a possible reduction of American foothold on the continent. “It will take time for our defence industry to increase its capabilities”, Pistorius warns. “We now have five to eight years to catch up, in terms of the armed forces, industry and society.”

When it comes to Ukraine, the powerful but fragmented European defence industry has underperformed. A case in point: last May, the European Commission promised to deliver 1mn badly needed munitions by March 2024. But production has not kept up; only about a third have been delivered so far, largely from existing stocks.

Czech President Petr Pavel blames the late — or failed — delivery of expected western equipment to Ukrainian armed forces for the stalling of their counteroffensive.

As Putin has placed Russia’s economy on a war footing, European political leaders should be pressing the defence industry to shift its priority from lucrative exports to the Gulf countries and back to their continent. Trump-aligned think-tanks advising the US to pivot away from Europe and promoting the concept of a “dormant Nato” have finally inspired brainstorming in Brussels about reinforcing the European pillar of the alliance.

“Dormant Nato” should be a wake-up call for Europe. There are only 11 months left.