Letter: The ageing ‘problem’ has a climate change upside

Martin Wolf riffs nicely on a problem that affects almost every country in the world — namely ageing populations (“Longer lives mean profound social change”, Opinion, May 13).

The mystery is why he never places this problem in the context of shrinking populations and the existential threat of climate change.

The elderly bulge is a transition phenomenon, comparable to the global population explosion that began around 1900, creating a youth bulge in most countries.

The elderly bulge is expected to stop growing by 2050 and will gradually diminish over the following decades as its members die.

Wolf’s opinion piece leaves readers believing that there is nothing good about the ageing problem. He should have pointed out that the ageing problem results from the sharply declining fertility (childbearing) around the world that is causing populations to shrink. Furthermore, meeting the challenges of climate change will be much easier in a future where the global population is shrinking than it would be if the global population were doubling in the next 70 years (for example) to 16bn, as it has more than trebled from 2.5bn in 1950.

The strong point in Wolf’s piece is indisputable. “Profound social change” will be required to avoid serious social turmoil in the years ahead — from both the ageing bulge and the below-replacement-level fertility. This change will not be easy or smooth, but it has a bright side. It can make the planet more liveable for our grandchildren and their children.

Lex Rieffel
Washington, DC, US