Iran’s reformists try fear tactics to mobilise vote

Reformist politicians have turned to fear tactics ahead of Iran’s presidential election run-off, warning of the consequences of a hardline victory in a bid to sway a silent majority who boycotted the first round.

Iranians will choose between two contrasting figures on Friday in the Islamic republic’s first presidential run-off in two-decades: Masoud Pezeshkian, a reformist former health minister, and Saeed Jalili, an ideologically hardline regime stalwart.

Pezeshkian surprised many by securing the most ballots in last week’s first round, beating three hardline rivals. But turnout was just 40 per cent — the lowest in the republic’s history.

Now with Jalili hoping to unite the conservative base around his candidacy, the 69-year-old Pezeshkian and his backers have sought to mobilise reformists by highlighting the stark choice for voters — at least within the political limits of Iranian regime politics. Analysts say the race is too close to call.

The vote comes at a critical juncture for Iran as it grapples with simmering domestic pressures and heightened tensions with the west, while preparing for the eventual succession to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the 85-year-old supreme leader.

This week, Mohammad Javad Azari Jahromi, a former minister and Pezeshkian backer, said Iran would not be allowed to “fall into the hands of the Taliban”, likening Jalili’s candidacy to the Islamists controlling Afghanistan.

Pezeshkian, who if elected would be Iran’s first reformist president since Mohammad Khatami two decades ago, warned last week that “untrustworthy, inexperienced and dangerous individuals” could turn Iran into “a giant laboratory for their bizarre ideas”.

“Join us this week in the second round . . . so we can keep the calamity at bay,” he said in a social media post.

The 58-year-old Jalili responded to the reformists’ criticisms in a televised debate, saying: “Will it help to tell 10mn [who voted for the hardliner] that you are the Taliban?”

A Jalili victory would cement conservatives’ hold over all levers of the state, which has been the case since hardline cleric Ebrahim Raisi won the 2021 poll. The election was called after Raisi died in a helicopter crash seven weeks ago.

Pezeshkian suggests he would take a more relaxed approach to social restrictions and pledges to engage with the west over Iran’s nuclear programme to secure sanctions relief. But he has also reiterated his religiosity and his loyalty to Khamenei.

His challenge is to convince millions of disillusioned Iranians that he would make a difference in a system where Khamenei has ultimate authority and hardline centres of power, including the elite Revolutionary Guards, have significant sway over foreign and domestic policy.

The scale of the challenge is underscored by Roya, a 38-year-old accountant who last voted in 2017 when Hassan Rouhani was elected for a second term.

At the time, the Tehran resident was hopeful that Rouhani’s pledge to use the 2015 nuclear accord to end the nation’s isolation and boost the beleaguered economy would pay off. Instead, then US president Donald Trump abandoned the accord in 2018 and imposed hundreds of sanctions.

Iran has since slid into a deeper social and economic malaise, fuelling bouts of protests. When Raisi was elected in 2021, leading reformists were barred from running and turnout was 48.8 per cent — then a record low for a presidential vote.

Roya, like many others reformist candidates would typically hope to attract, now views elections as an opportunity for civil disobedience.

“I have to show I’m unhappy in some way,” said Roya, who asked that her real name not be used. Asked what fuels the discontent, she rolled off a list: “Injustice, the lack of security we feel . . . the lack of transparency and lies”.

That sense of injustice was exacerbated by the death of Mahsa Amini in police custody two years ago after she was arrested for not wearing her hijab properly. The 22-year-old’s death sparked nationwide protests, a brutal government crackdown and hardened anti-regime sentiment.

Analysts say it is one of the crucial factors, along with economic grievances, behind the low turnout, particularly among urban women. In Tehran, a city of 10mn, turnout was just 23 per cent.

Mohammad Ali Abtahi, a reformist former vice-president, acknowledged that attracting “disengaged voters is a tough job”.

“Changing the atmosphere is very difficult for reformists, and also relatively tough for the hardliners because it was not easy for them to defend the policies of Raisi in the past few years,” Abtahi said.

Indeed, in the first round hardliners also appeared to struggle to mobilise their traditionally reliable base. Pezeshkian won the first round with 10.5mn votes, or 42.5 per cent. But the combined total of votes for Jalili, who garnered 38 per cent, and Mohammad Baqer Ghalibaf, the other leading hardliner, was 12.9mn — 5mn fewer than Raisi secured in 2021.

After coming third, Ghalibaf has thrown his support behind Jalili, but reformists expect some his voters to switch to Pezeshkian.

Fariba Nazari, a sociologist, believes the legacy of Amini protests also affected turnout among conservative voters “who typically refrain from engaging in any opposition”.

“Many people have lost their trust in power structures to resolve their problems, and it may be too late for the candidates to rebuild that trust,” Nazari said. “I suspect a large number will sit out Friday’s election.”

Roya said Amini’s death and subsequent protests “awakened people and made them more aware than before”.

“My family are religious people and only one of my brothers voted out of six,” said Roya. The one who did vote was “brainwashed”, the family concluded.

“It’s a dirty game, just preordained. I don’t believe in any of it. Voting will not make any difference.”