Letter: Longevity forecast should not get ahead of itself

Although Martin Wolf presents substantive evidence on increases in life expectancy at birth globally (“Longer lives mean profound social change”, Opinion, May 13), his conclusions regarding the need for reorganising the education and retirement systems are premature.

First, “healthy” life expectancy remains low even in countries such as Japan where more than half the population over 70 suffers from chronic diseases such as cancers and cardiovascular disease. Thus, there are unlikely to be significant benefits from retraining the elderly for performing productive tasks.

Second, Wolf overlooks the likely effects of climate change on future longevity. With higher ambient temperatures and poor sanitation and waste disposal methods — especially in developing countries — deadly pathogens are likely to emerge in the coming decades. The problems are exacerbated by groundwater depletion that in turn increases unsanitary conditions.

Lastly, poor dietary patterns and low physical activity are fuelling the global obesity epidemic. With higher inflammation levels among the overweight and the impending infectious outbreaks, adult survival rates are likely to start declining so that policymakers need to focus on supporting sustainable population levels with reasonable living standards.

Professor Alok Bhargava
School of Public Policy, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, US