Burkina Faso junta struggles to contain jihadi violence

An assault that killed more than 100 Burkina Faso soldiers and tensions among military leaders have exacerbated the west African country’s dire security situation as the ruling junta struggles to contain a widening Islamist insurgency.

The attack on a military outpost near the border with Niger earlier this month was one of the worst suffered by Burkina Faso’s army in the decade since it began fighting al-Qaeda affiliate Jama’a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM), which claimed responsibility for the assault, and other militant groups.

The bloodshed puts further pressure on the junta, led by 36-year-old army captain Ibrahim Traoré, which seized power in September 2022 promising to improve security.

“There hasn’t been an improvement,” said Ulf Laessing, Sahel programme director for the Konrad Adenauer Foundation, the German think-tank. “By his own standards, Traoré has some explaining to do.”

The Sahel, the arid region south of the Sahara, has been riven by Islamist insurgencies and violence from other armed groups over the past decade. Thousands of people have been killed and millions more displaced in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger. In all three countries the military leaders who seized power have struggled to deliver on promises of restoring order.

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Traoré mounted the coup following an attack by insurgents on a military convoy in the north of the country, in which 11 soldiers were killed.

The takeover was Burkina Faso’s second coup in eight months as Traoré toppled lieutenant colonel Paul-Henri Sandaogo Damiba, who had himself ousted the democratically elected government of then-president Roch Kaboré. Traoré’s government claimed it foiled another coup attempt last year.

Security in Burkina Faso continues to deteriorate. About 2mn people — 10 per cent of the population — have been displaced from their homes. Nearly 40 towns, mostly in the country’s north and east, are being besieged by militants and are largely cut off from flows of food and aid, while insurgents control about 60 per cent of the country’s territory.

More than 40 per cent of the population are living below the poverty line, according to the World Bank, as insurgent attacks disrupt agriculture and business activity.

The crisis has led to speculation that the regime could collapse amid public discontent and rumours of infighting in the security establishment.

Colonel Major Célestin Simporé, Burkina Faso’s army chief of staff, has denied there is bad blood within the regime. In a statement last week he said allegations of discontent “aim to sow doubt, to create psychosis in public opinion and to demoralise the troops engaged in the fight for the liberation of our people”. The armed forces were “focused on operations to reconquer territory”, he added.

Will Brown, senior policy fellow with the Africa programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said Traoré was on “really shaky ground”.

“The economy is on the verge of collapse and his army is profoundly undertrained and under-equipped,” Brown said. “My sources indicate there’s a casualty rate of almost 30 per cent in the armed forces [in battles with insurgents] and the rate of post-traumatic stress is astonishing.”

Traoré has responded by shoring up his grip on power, extending his term in office until at least 2029 and jettisoning plans for an election that the junta had promised would be held in July. The government has cracked down on dissent, with high-profile critics of the junta finding themselves conscripted into the armed forces.

Amid the violence, Burkina Faso is suffering the world’s most neglected displacement crisis, according to a recently published report by the Norwegian Refugee Council, with most people moving within the country’s borders.

Mali and Niger are also in the top five, alongside Cameroon and the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Burkina Faso citizens were starving, not only because of the conflict but also because humanitarian groups were underfunded or had a minimal presence in the country, NRC secretary-general Jan Egeland told the Financial Times.

“For Europe, we have a very blunt question,” he said. “You don’t want people to throw themselves in the Mediterranean to come to Europe but you withdraw development aid to the countries in the Sahel because there have been military takeovers . . . you’re denying hope to the youth of the Sahel.”

Since the military takeovers in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, French troops have been forced to withdraw as the former colonies forge alternative alliances with other countries, most prominently Russia. Western countries have also largely cut development funding to the three countries.

“It’s a strategic mistake to throw in the towel and not find ways to invest in hope in this region,” Egeland said.