Will the pandemic make first class a thing of the past?
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In a 1992 episode of Seinfeld, Jerry argues with Elaine about why he should get the one first-class ticket on offer. “You won’t know what you’re missing,” he says. “I’ve flown first class, Elaine, I can’t go back to coach.”
That piece of cod psychology still holds true, even if times have changed. In that episode Seinfeld gets a bigger seat, more legroom and free cookies, but these days first class offers much more, especially on long-haul international flights. While lie-flat beds are a minimum, some of the big global carriers offer hotel-style suites with showers, double beds and menus by famous chefs. Singapore Airlines’ A380 Suites, for example, were created by luxury yacht designer Jean-Jacques Coste, and come with Ferragamo amenity kits and hand-stitched leather armchairs by Italian furniture makers Poltrona Frau.
But while first class has improved, demand for it has been in marked decline. According to figures from aviation consultancy OAG, there were a total of 8.46m seats in first-class cabins on scheduled flights in 2019 (excluding US and Chinese domestic flights, where the term first applies to what would be called business elsewhere). That was a 45 per cent drop since 2010 while, over the same period, the number of business-class seats grew 42 per cent to 184.48m. Carriers such as Air New Zealand, KLM and Turkish Airlines had ditched first well before the pandemic, but the disruption of the past year has further reduced the number of first-class seats in the air. Currently first is unavailable on airlines including Qatar Airways, Singapore Airlines and Qantas.
Ever since British Airways introduced lie-flat seats in business class in 2000, first has increasingly come to seem like an expensive gimmick, often costing twice as much for what in effect amounts to better champagne and more caviar. Covid-induced hygiene changes, such as using disposable packaging instead of Wedgwood ceramics and crystal, are likely to further reduce the veneer of luxury, even if some passengers are likely to want the extra privacy.
At the same time, airlines have been moving away from larger planes, the 747s and A380s, that house the really flash offerings. Etihad is just one of the airlines indefinitely parking its A380 fleet — in effect meaning the end of its much-hyped Residences, three-room suites with butler service that cost upwards of $30,000 for a round trip. Instead, airlines are moving towards smaller Airbus 350s and Boeing 787s on long-haul flights, with reduced fuel burn meaning a 20 per cent cost saving per passenger. These smaller planes are easier to fill, especially in an uncertain market, but not designed to accommodate bulky first-class suites with showers.
“Airlines like Emirates, with lots of reliable connecting long-haul routes, will still use larger planes and have a focus on first class,” says John Grant of OAG. “But the likes of Lufthansa and British Airways were already moving towards a model of more flexible routes with smaller passenger numbers, like BA’s flights to Austin and New Orleans, where it’s harder to justify the space for a first-class seat. I can see them getting rid of first class altogether.”
But how will the bigwigs fly now? They’ve certainly not disappeared, with Forbes magazine listing 2,755 billionaires in its 2021 list, 660 more than a year ago. One possible answer is that today’s top executives are getting over qualms about sustainability and flying private — not just as a convenient replacement for suspended commercial routes, but for health reasons. Austrian private jet charter company GlobeAir, for example, claims there are only 20 touch points when you fly private, compared to 700 on a commercial airline.
Flexjet, an Ohio-based private jet company offering leasing and fractional ownership, increased its flight volume in Europe by 7 per cent last year, despite March and April 2020 seeing almost all planes grounded. “By May last year, we were seeing a spike in interest from people who’d never flown private,” says Marine Eugene, Flexjet’s European managing director. “Whereas a lot of our existing customers used to fly privately within Europe, but first class for longer journeys, we’ve seen more of them using our planes to go to the Maldives or cross the Atlantic.”
In the US, which makes up more than 70 per cent of the private jet market, volumes are back near pre-Covid levels. According to Richard Koe, managing director at business aviation consultancy WingX, routes such as New York to Florida are at all-time highs, partly the result of Florida’s relatively light Covid restrictions. In Europe, he points to significant growth on routes ill-served by airlines, including Istanbul to Tirana and Munich to Baden-Baden. “This could be the biggest year ever for the industry,” he says.
This growth could die down when commercial airlines resume something like normal service. Then again, Seinfeld was surely right that once you upgrade, it’s hard to go back. For many of the new private flyers, the prospect of longer wait times and fiddly restrictions at airports might have become entirely unpalatable. More than ever, flying first class may seem like yesterday’s idea of luxury.
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