Why Meloni is keeping Europe guessing over her post-election allies

Good morning. French President Emmanuel Macron and German chancellor Olaf Scholz have written a joint op-ed for the FT, calling for “more innovation, more single market, more investment, more level playing field and less bureaucracy” to strengthen European sovereignty.

Today, our Rome bureau chief assesses the options for Italy’s in-demand Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni ahead of the European parliament elections, and I reveal the behind-the-scenes scramble to bypass Hungary’s block on EU military support to Ukraine.

Dangerous liaisons

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is continuing to hedge her bets amid wooing from Europe’s centrist and hard-right factions. But her call for “a different majority” to lead Europe after next month’s elections has raised eyebrows in Brussels, writes Amy Kazmin.

Context: Meloni and her hard-right Brothers of Italy (FdI) party are set to be critical kingmakers after the June 6-9 elections. She has been courted by both centre-right European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen and French far-right leader Marine Le Pen.

Von der Leyen, who is seeking a second five-year term, may need outside support from Meloni to bolster her centrist coalition and win a majority in the new parliament.

Meanwhile, Le Pen called for Meloni to “unite” with her far-right political grouping in an interview with Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera over the weekend. Such a move could drastically recalibrate the parliamentary maths by ruling out any deal with mainstream parties.

Meloni has been careful to stick to a strategically ambiguous pre-election script, flirting with both sides.

“Today there are opportunities to change the European picture that have never existed before. We owe it to ourselves to take advantage of them,” Meloni told Rai Radio 1 yesterday.

“There are the margins to build a different majority in the European parliament and therefore a different Europe with different policies,” she said.

She has previously ruled out any imminent merger with Le Pen’s group.

“There is no form of unification in sight right now,” she said on Friday. “That doesn’t preclude that on some issues we can collaborate as we have already collaborated.”

Meloni has also refused to nail down her support for von der Leyen. In a speech last month, she refused to address speculation on the issue, calling it “a surreal debate” that she would “not indulge in”.

Meanwhile, von der Leyen’s traditional allies, the Socialists and the liberal Renew group, are watching. Last week, Germany’s social democrat Chancellor Olaf Scholz warned that the next commission “must not rest on the support of a parliamentary majority that also needs the support of right-wing extremists”.

Chart du jour: Diversion

Western European ports are feeling the strain of resurgent disruption, congestion and other problems for global shipping following a sudden, forced rejigging of the world’s maritime trade networks to avoid conflict areas.

Check the small print

EU officials are investigating legal workarounds to bypass Hungary’s refusal to sign off on more military aid to Ukraine, despite the country’s own prime minister agreeing to a dedicated fund for the purpose.

Context: Seven different legal acts linked to EU military support to Ukraine are currently being held up by Hungary. Together, they would unlock €6.5bn worth of weapons. Delays in supplying western arms have over the past six months contributed to Russia gaining territory, and facilitated more frequent bombing attacks on Ukrainian cities.

At yesterday’s meeting of foreign affairs ministers, Hungary’s Péter Szijjártó did not have a single defender among his colleagues as they lined up to berate him for his intransigence. “It was more personal than I have ever witnessed in a ministerial meeting,” said one observer of the pile-on.

But if group-shaming won’t work, others are hoping for a more clinical solution.

EU officials are assessing whether Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s previous formal endorsement of the dedicated €5bn Ukraine Assistance Fund (UAF) would provide enough legal wriggle room for at least some money to be paid out.

EU officials are keen to avoid that €3bn in proceeds from immobilised Russian assets — which were recently agreed by all EU countries including Hungary — won’t get stuck in the same process. The cash is due to be paid into the UAF before disbursement to Ukraine.

Essentially, the officials argue that Hungary cannot agree to both set up a fund and provide cash for it, and then subsequently block outgoing payments.

“We cannot let the European Union’s military support for Ukraine be taken hostage,” EU chief diplomat Josep Borrell said after yesterday’s meeting. “This delay can be measured in terms of human lives. It’s not a financial problem. It’s a problem of human lives.”

What to watch today

1. Belgian Prime Minister Alexander de Croo hosts Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, press conference at 10.30am.

2. EU defence ministers meet, arrivals from 8.00am.

3. Europol hosts “EU versus Crime” conference.

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• ‘Too soft’: The EU and US should set a deadline for Serbia to adopt sanctions against Russia, Kosovo’s Prime Minister Albin Kurti told the FT.

• Anti-social media: Female politicians face an unchecked torrent of online abuse. That has to stop, writes European commissioner Věra Jourová.