The Turkish opposition’s stunning turnround

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan cut an unusually deflated figure when he emerged following last weekend’s local elections in Turkey. After towering over the country for more than two decades, the Turkish president has become used to celebratory victory speeches. But when he addressed supporters in Ankara last week, he was forced to acknowledge that his Justice and Development (AKP) party had taken its worst beating since it came to power in 2002.

In a remarkable turnaround in its fortunes, the opposition Republican People’s party (CHP) captured 38 per cent of the national vote, while support for the AKP fell to 35 per cent. Not only did the CHP retain the mayorships of Turkey’s key cities — Istanbul and Ankara — it won in towns and cities across Anatolia, the AKP’s heartland.

In an era where strongmen have been on the rise, the poll provided a healthy example of the importance of elections even in illiberal democracies. Importantly, Erdoğan broadly respected the results. In 2019, when the CHP’s Ekrem İmamoğlu first won the mayorship of Istanbul his party called for a revote. For years, Erdoğan has steered Turkey down an increasingly autocratic path, whittling away the independence of state institutions and becoming ever more intolerant of dissent. Voting is relatively free in Turkey, but it takes place on a decidedly unlevel playing field.

Erdoğan unabashedly uses state machinery to support his election campaigns. After he crushed opposition optimism at general elections last May by defeating a six-party alliance united in its quest to topple the president, extending his 22-year rule, there appeared to be few checks on his powers. This was despite a deep economic malaise for which Erdoğan’s disastrous policies — notably his insistence on low interest rates even as living costs soared — were largely to blame.

But the local elections proved that millions of Turks have retained their faith in the power of the ballot box, and a willingness to use it to voice their displeasure at the president and his AKP’s rule. It does not mean there has been a dramatic shift in the balance of power. Erdoğan controls virtually all levers of the state after replacing the parliamentary system with an executive presidency through a contentious constitutional referendum in 2017. It is, however, a wake-up call for the president.

At the heart of many voters’ frustrations was soaring inflation, which is close to 70 per cent. That is in part due to Erdoğan’s pre-election giveaways ahead of last May’s vote, including raising the minimum wage, and the weakness of the lira. Erdoğan did change tack after the general election, appointing a new, credible economic team. Under finance minister Mehmet Şimşek’s guidance, Turkey has returned to a more orthodox path. The central bank has raised interest rates by 41.5 percentage points since May.

In the wake of the local elections, it is now critical that Erdoğan stay the course on the economy and resists any urge to revert to his damaging earlier policies. That would spell disaster for Turkey. There should also be no attempt to use the tools of the state to neuter the opposition’s successes.

Both İmamoğlu and Mansur Yavaş, Ankara’s popular mayor, have court cases hanging over them, which the CHP claims are politically motivated. İmamoğlu, a charismatic leader who has shown a rare ability to bridge Turkey’s social divides, has clearly emerged as the most credible opposition figure to challenge Erdoğan. The president must not be tempted to use nefarious means to muzzle the opposition.

There are also lessons for the opposition. Before last May’s presidential vote, many in its ranks believed the CHP chose the wrong candidate to challenge Erdoğan. Instead of selecting İmamoğlu, the party went with its then leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu. After last weekend’s results, opposition supporters must be wondering, what if?