Why Macron and Scholz’s shift on Ukraine attacking Russia matters

Good morning. Today, I report on a significant taboo-shattering in favour of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and our competition correspondent hears that in the global artificial intelligence race, the EU only leads in terms of regulation.

Listen to the first two episodes of our new podcast series Untold: Power for Sale, looking into Qatargate, an alleged corruption scandal that exposed major flaws in how European democracy works. Subscribe and listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Breakthrough

Volodymyr Zelenskyy came to Europe this week seeking both more western weapons and permission to use them how he likes. He will be pleasantly satisfied with the outcome.

Context: After more than two years of war, Ukraine finds itself outgunned and outnumbered on the increasingly pressured front line as Russia brings its superior capabilities to bear. Ukrainian cities are also suffering from daily bombing raids, killing dozens of civilians every week.

After months of griping at western capitals barring Ukraine from using their weapons to strike back against targets inside Russia, last night brought a major breakthrough as French President Emmanuel Macron bowed to Zelenskyy’s request, and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz voiced his agreement.

“How can we explain to Ukraine that they need to protect their cities . . . but that they don’t have the right to attack where the missiles are coming from? It’s as if we were telling them: ‘We’re giving you arms but you cannot use them to defend yourself’,” Macron said at a press conference with his German host.

Macron — who has provided long-range SCALP missiles to Kyiv — clarified that would only apply to hitting military sites used by Russia to attack Ukraine.

Scholz, who has been one of the most reticent western leaders on this issue, said Ukraine had every right “under international law” to hit targets in Russia in order to defend itself. 

The shift in stance from the EU’s two biggest military powers could have major consequences. The bulk of the missiles and bombs hitting Ukraine are fired from launch sites in Russia, or dropped from planes in Russian airspace.

The statements came hours after Zelenskyy used a press conference in Brussels to argue it was “unfair” that Russia could attack “with artillery, long range weapons . . . and you cannot shoot back at them because you do not have permission”.

A wholesale policy change may take more time. Sat beside Zelenskyy in Brussels, Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo pledged to send 30 F-16s by 2028 but reiterated that the fighter jets are to hit targets only inside Ukraine.

“Some [EU] member states were against it, and they have changed their mind,” said the EU’s chief diplomat Josep Borrell last night. “It is a decision for each individual member state to take.”

Chart du jour: Young and disillusioned

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Polls show that the far-right, once beyond the pale for young people across Europe, is making inroads. In Germany, 22 per cent of Germans aged 14-29 backed the AfD in a recent poll, up from 12 per cent in 2023.

Left behAInd

The EU has not fulfilled its ambitions on artificial intelligence owing to unclear investment targets and a gap in funding compared with the US and China, auditors have found.

But the bloc’s landmark regulation of AI may be a silver lining, writes Javier Espinoza.

Context: In 2018, the EU committed to scaling up investment in AI with the aim to be a global leader in the development of those technologies. But its ambitions have not matched its actions, according to a report by the European Court of Auditors published today.

Instead, a fragmented single market and slow deployment of funding have shattered the bloc’s dreams of leading the AI race. Others, including China and the US, are now ahead.

“Management [in the EU] is fragmented and scattered and you cannot [see] the scale you need for AI to grow within the EU,” says Mihails Kozlovs, the top EU auditor in charge of the audit.

But the auditors also pointed out that the EU has been a leader in developing the rules that govern AI. Earlier this month, member states adopted the dedicated AI Act, the first such legislation in the world.

The auditors said regulatory certainty might incentivise AI companies to set up shop in the EU.

Auditors recommended that the EU should reassess its investment targets for AI technologies and how member states contribute to them, as well as look into more AI-focused financial support at EU level.

Meanwhile, the European Commission defended its record on AI, saying that the EU was already investing more than €1bn a year in AI under different programmes.

What to watch today

1. Sauli Niinistö, European Commission special adviser on security and defence, attends a meeting of the commission college.

2. Hungary’s foreign minister Péter Szijjártó visits Belarus.

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• Dutch PM: Former spy chief Dick Schoof has been chosen as the next prime minister of the Netherlands, heading a populist rightwing government.

• Palestinian statehood: Spain, Ireland and Norway have formally recognised Palestine, sparking a furious reaction from Israel.