What Prabowo Subianto’s presidential election win means for Indonesia

Prabowo Subianto used to run polarising presidential campaigns that demonised his opponents and projected a bombastic, nationalistic persona. At one rally in 2014, the former general arrived by helicopter and inspected a red beret-wearing honour guard from horseback.

But now Prabowo, 72, appears to have won Indonesia’s presidency by adopting a more grandfatherly image, dancing and blowing kisses to adoring crowds.

His presidency could be just as unpredictable, said political observers and economists.

“If you extrapolate from any part of his history to imagine what he might be like as president, I think on any given day he might be any one of those Prabowos,” said Aaron Connelly, a senior fellow with the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

Official results are due in March but private ballot sampling, which has proved reliable in the past, showed Prabowo winning Wednesday’s election decisively with no need for a second round of voting. He is projected to become Indonesia’s next president on October 20, putting him at the helm of an economy that is south-east Asia’s biggest and a critical player in the global green energy transition.

But he is also expected to pursue more populist policies that could test Indonesia’s fiscal strength.

Prabowo’s victory came thanks not only to the rebranding, which relied heavily on social media to draw younger voters, but also to the backing of Joko Widodo. The outgoing president remains extremely popular for transforming Indonesia into an emerging economic power by spending record amounts on infrastructure and attracting foreign investment. 

Analysts said the relationship between Prabowo and Widodo — former electoral foes turned allies — would be critical to the direction of the incoming administration.

Sidelining Widodo, who continues to enjoy approval ratings as high as 80 per cent, would be politically risky, said Connelly. The incumbent is barred from seeking a third term, but some political analysts have raised concerns that he is attempting to retain influence after he leaves office.

Widodo’s son, 36-year-old Gibran Rakabuming Raka will be Prabowo’s vice-president, and some Widodo-era cabinet ministers, who have been campaigning for Prabowo, are expected to take roles in the new government.

Prabowo has also spent little time in government after a long military career. He has only served as defence minister since 2019 under Widodo, who is widely known as Jokowi.

“While Prabowo will owe his win to the unofficial but clear support of Widodo, he will not be Jokowi’s puppet,” said Peter Mumford at the consultancy Eurasia Group, adding that Prabowo’s term would not be “Jokowi 3.0”. 

Prabowo has promised to stick with Widodo’s policies, including a focus on developing the exports-oriented commodities sector and plans to build a $32bn new capital in Kalimantan. This promise of continuity helped push Indonesia’s stock index close to an all-time high on Wednesday.

He has also pledged to spend 460tn rupiah ($29.4bn) to provide free meals and milk to schoolchildren across the country. In previous years he has vowed to slash taxes.

Such policies would weigh on Indonesia’s fiscal position, economists said.

“We believe medium-term fiscal risks have risen, given some of Prabowo’s costly campaign pledges,” Fitch Ratings said on Thursday, citing in part the meals scheme — which it said could cost the equivalent of 2 per cent of Indonesia’s gross domestic product.

But the credit rating agency said its “baseline scenario” was still for government debt to remain on a “gradually declining path”.

“There is also a risk that Prabowo’s nationalism could turn off Chinese investors and undermine attempts to boost investment into Indonesia’s metals sector,” said Gareth Leather, an economist at Capital Economics.

Chinese companies have poured billions of dollars into Indonesia’s metals and mining industry, particularly nickel, which is vital to electric vehicle batteries. The investments came after Widodo’s 2019 ban on exports of nickel ore, which forced foreign companies to set up smelters and processing plants onshore.

Prabowo has promised to maintain the “downstreaming” policy, which some foreign groups have called protectionist but which alongside investor-friendly reforms helped revitalise Indonesia’s economy.

But Prabowo will not be able to realise his agenda alone, and he has promised to form a coalition government, as Widodo did. Prabowo’s party came third in voting for national and regional legislators on Wednesday, according to pollsters’ estimates, and is expected to lead the coalition.

The ex-general’s commitment to Indonesia’s young and hard-fought democracy will also be closely watched. Prabowo spent decades in the military until he was ousted in 1998 over his alleged involvement in the kidnappings of pro-democracy activists.

Prabowo has also been accused of being involved in killings in East Timor as a young officer in the 1980s. He has always denied the allegations.

He complained in 2014 about elections being too expensive and hinted at scrapping direct polls for the presidency.

Critics have also accused Widodo of weakening Indonesia’s democracy. Gibran was allowed to run alongside Prabowo last year by the constitutional court, then led by Widodo’s brother-in-law, despite an age threshold of 40.

Any threat to democratic principles “would dent Indonesia’s reputation and its ability to attract foreign investment”, said Laura Schwartz, senior south-east Asia analyst at risk intelligence company Verisk Maplecroft.