Ebrahim Raisi avoids blame as Iran’s pro-democracy forces direct anger elsewhere

Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi should be a man under intense pressure as his nation is gripped by crisis.

The country has been rocked by one of the most significant outbreaks of civil unrest in years and the rial has fallen by more than a third since he took office in August 2021 after winning an election many believed lacked legitimacy. Inflation in an economy strangled by US sanctions is running at about 45 per cent.

But to the surprise of many, Raisi, a hardline cleric, has avoided the worst of the protesters’ rage, even as their calls for regime change have grown louder. Instead, he has been largely ignored, unlike predecessors Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad and Hassan Rouhani, who faced the full wrath of demonstrators during previous bouts of unrest in 2009 and 2019 respectively.

Analysts say it is not that Raisi is any less unpopular among regime critics, but more a sign that many Iranians believe he has no agenda of his own and is simply doing the bidding of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader, and other hardline centres of power.

“Raisi, in the real sense of the word, is being ignored by people because he shows no signs of having his own thinking and actions in times of crisis, unlike previous presidents,” said Saeed Laylaz, a reformist analyst of Iran’s political economy.

Raisi was considered to have been handpicked by Khamenei, with his path to the presidency cleared when top reformist and moderate candidates were prevented from standing. Many Iranians did not bother to cast their ballots as the election recorded the lowest voter turnout in any presidential poll in Iran’s history.

But Raisi’s victory was celebrated by hardliners who were able to regain control of the key branches of the state for the first time in almost a decade. Hardliners in the judiciary, the Guardian Council constitutional watchdog, and Revolutionary Guards believed the election would put an end to bitter clashes between rival camps within the regime, analysts said.

These rivalries were particularly evident during Rouhani’s two terms, when he pursued a more centrist policy and was backed by reformists within the regime.

By contrast, Raisi’s lower profile has suited the leadership, even as it has meant Khamenei has been the target of protesters’ anger, analysts said. They added that it was a price the regime appeared willing to pay, rather than having a president who pursued a different path or made concessions to the pro-democracy movement.

“Those who brought Raisi to power have no regrets because anyone stronger than him would have meant clashes between the president and higher authorities which hardliners don’t want to see ever again,” Laylaz said.

Reformists, however, consider Raisi’s election to be a turning point that put an end to people’s hopes that reforms could come through the ballot box.

“The election [of Rouhani] in 2017 was the last [meaningful] election in this country,” Abbas Abdi, a reformist analyst, told local media. “After that people have had no more hope in the economy and realised the political establishment will never heed their demands.”

The latest unrest erupted in September following the death in custody of Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old Kurdish woman. While the authorities insisted she died of a heart attack, the lack of trust in the regime is such that many Iranians, including Amini’s family, accused the state of lying and that she died after being beaten.

More than 300 people, including 44 children, have been killed in the unrest since, according to Amnesty International. Iran has confirmed about 200 deaths, including security forces.

The killings have plunged Iran into a period of mourning, with the grim mood exacerbated in recent weeks by the execution of four of the protesters.

Throughout the unrest, Raisi, 62, has largely sought to maintain a business-as-usual approach, focusing on the struggling economy and efforts to ensure a stable supply of basic goods such as food and fuel. The speeches he has delivered in travels across the country have reflected Khamenei’s views that foreign forces, rather than domestic factors, are to blame for the protests.

Reformist politicians say such rhetoric and the fact that almost no concessions have been made, other than to no longer strictly enforce women to wear the hijab, indicated that the protests had not yet convinced the regime to change course.

Abbas Nilforoushan, a deputy to the head of the elite Revolutionary Guards, said this month: “This is Iran, the country of martyrs. To overthrow [the system] you have to pass through a sea of blood.”

Hardliners believe that if Raisi’s government can succeed in improving the economy it would thwart what they deem to be foreign conspiracies and ensure stability. 

“Raisi still enjoys a good social status and people hope they can achieve their rights through him because he’s not corrupt and there are no signs of corruption in his cabinet,” said a business executive close to hardline forces. “It was bad luck these protests happened during his tenure, but they’ve not weakened Raisi.”

His economic team have managed to meet projected tax revenues for the financial year while oil and gas continues to be exported despite US sanctions. Public sector wages and pensions have also been lifted, which has discouraged civil servants from joining the protests.

The opposition has called for a general strike to increase the pressure on the regime. However, a senior manager at a large state-affiliated company said his workers were unwilling to join after being paid on time and given raises in recent months. “We’re not yet near general strikes,” he said.

The ebbing of the protests and absence of widespread labour unrest have encouraged hardliners that they can curb the crisis. This would allow them to pursue military and nuclear advances as well as the process of determining the successor to Khamenei, 83, without interference.

One analyst said the president’s position had effectively “turned into that of a prime minister even if no constitutional change has happened”. He added: “Raisi doesn’t seem to have any intention of disrupting the unspoken new order.”