Bolivia’s socialists proclaim election victory

The socialist party of Bolivia’s former longtime leader Evo Morales has claimed a stunning victory in presidential elections, paving the way for five more years of leftwing rule and raising the prospect that Mr Morales will return from exile in Argentina.

With official results still trickling in from across the country, centrist candidate Carlos Mesa, who had stood a reasonable chance of beating the socialist Movement Towards Socialism (MAS) party, conceded defeat. “It’s a result that we accept,” he told reporters in La Paz on Monday.

Bolivia’s interim president, Jeanine Áñez, also confirmed the MAS’s victory, tweeting her congratulations to the socialist candidate, Luis Arce, and his running mate, David Choquehuanca. “[I] ask them to govern with Bolivia and democracy in mind,” she said.

Mr Arce tweeted his thanks to the Bolivian people, saying “we have recovered democracy and we will regain stability and social peace”. Speaking from Buenos Aires, where he has been in exile since an aborted election last year, Mr Morales said the MAS had “recovered the homeland”.

Internal divisions within the MAS could arise, especially on delicate economic policy issues

By Monday morning only about 15 per cent of the votes had been tallied, but two exit polls suggested the socialists had taken more than 50 per cent of the vote, enough to avoid a second round next month. The polls showed the MAS had won in five of Bolivia’s nine provinces and taken well over 60 per cent in La Paz and highland areas of Oruro and Cochabamba.

The MAS’s victory marks a stunning comeback for a movement which a year ago looked dead. To some extent, this year’s vote was a referendum on Mr Morales’s 14 years in power, which were marked by political stability and brisk economic growth but also by his increasingly authoritarian rule.

Mr Morales is now likely to return to Bolivia, although he may face court hearings, not only related to the violence after last year’s election but also over allegations of rape.

The MAS’s victory significantly reduces the threat of post-electoral violence, which hung over the bitter campaign. Mr Arce had said the only way he could lose was if the vote was rigged, while Mr Mesa claimed Mr Arce’s MAS was fundamentally undemocratic.

Leftists across Latin America hailed the MAS’s resurgence as a victory for the region. Venezuela’s president Nicolás Maduro was among many to tweet their congratulations.

Analysts said, however, that Mr Arce could face a difficult time in power.

“Bolivia is facing structural economic challenges that Arce will have to confront,” said Rodrigo Riaza, country analyst at The Economist Intelligence Unit. “Unpopular choices, like fiscal consolidation or a devaluation, could trigger mass protests and lead to a shortlived government.”

He said that once in power, Mr Arce might follow the example of other leaders in Latin American and veer away from the policies of his predecessor. That happened in Colombia, where Juan Manuel Santos broke with his mentor Álvaro Uribe, and more recently in Ecuador, where current president Lenín Moreno has fallen out in spectacular style with Rafael Correa, who ruled the country before him.

“Arce has distanced himself from Morales in recent weeks,” Mr Riaza said. “Looking ahead, internal divisions within the MAS could arise, especially on delicate economic policy issues.”

This year’s peaceful and orderly Bolivian election is in stark contrast to last year’s, when Mr Morales claimed to have won what would have been a fourth term in office. The Organization of American States later audited the results and found widespread evidence of MAS fraud.

Days later, under heavy pressure from the armed forces, Mr Morales resigned and fled into exile. Thousands of his protesters poured on to Bolivia’s streets demanding his reappointment and claiming the OAS had fixed the result. At least 30 people were killed in the post-election violence.

Since then, the country has been governed on an interim basis by Ms Áñez, a rightwing former senator. She initially said she would not stand in the election, then changed her mind before finally withdrawing from the race last month after successive opinion polls found she was trailing badly.

Sunday’s vote, which was also an election for new senators and members of congress, was initially scheduled for May but was postponed twice because of coronavirus.