French election: FT experts answer your questions

The future of France hangs in the balance, with the National Assembly fractured and no clear path to a majority for any of the major political blocs.

The Financial Times convened a panel of experts to answer your questions about what the leftwing Nouveau Front Populaire’s surprise victory means for the country, the future of the far-right and the wider European project.

Tony Barber, the FT’s European comment editor and writer of the Europe Express Weekend newsletter, joined Andy Bounds, EU correspondent, and Anne-Sylvaine Chassany, the FT’s companies editor and former Paris bureau chief, to answer your queries live.

These journalists have all been closely following France in Europe Express, the FT’s premium European politics and policy newsletter, which has been publishing in English and French since the election was announced (premium subscribers can sign up here).

The Q&A is now closed, but here are the highlights:

FT reader, Fabrice from France: Marine Le Pen has spent the past dozen years bolstering her party’s strategy of “dédiabolisation” to widen its electoral appeal and to seem less radical to voters. My question is as follows: Do you believe the RN has transitioned from the far-right to a more moderate position on the right side of the political spectrum, thus positioning itself as a broad right-wing party aiming to supplant the traditional right (UMP/LR)? Or is the “dédiabolisation” only a strategy to access to power, with the RN likely to radicalize towards the far-right once in power, posing a risk of veering towards a form of modern fascism?

Tony Barber: The RN’s strategy is a) to maximise its appeal to voters and b) to appear as a credible party of government. Both goals involve a departure from the extreme nationalist xenophobia of the Jean-Marie Le Pen era. But they have also led, over time, to the adoption of policies on salaries, pensions, welfare and public services that have a certain left-of-centre flavour. Despite that, the party’s emphasis on national sovereignty and its hard line on issues of Islam and national identity make it a distinctively hard-right movement. Fascism is too strong a word but it is certainly not a simple replacement for the traditional centre-right.

FT reader, Mister mister: What majority coalitions are mathematically possible and politically feasible?

Anne-Sylvaine Chassany: Hi Mister mister - Given the centre-right LR has so far said they would not enter any coalition and given centrists have excluded working with the far-left LFI, the only mathematical majority is a group comprising Macron’s centrist allies, the Socialists, the greens and the communists (yes they are now in the ‘more reasonable’ category). Every other combination falls short of a majority.

FT reader, D54: For an outsider, in a nutshell how is French politics different from British? For example, why is there a not a tendency to moderation on the left? Or a stable coalition of the right (as the conservatives have been historically in Britain)? Thank you

Andy Bounds: Hi. There used to be before Macron. France has a powerful president which means the parliament and prime minister are less significant than in the UK. And that president is to some extent above the parties rather than at the head of one, as the PM is. Macron set out to smash the party system and succeeded creating a new liberal centre, which has in turn proved brittle. That is much harder in the UK because you need to stack up votes fighting three or more parties in individual constituencies. When Labour and Conservative defectors formed the centrist Change UK it failed to get a single seat.

FT reader, CatoS: So Macron seems to cooperate with the new left front against the Rassemblement for the election (urging his candidates to withdraw where the left stands a better chance against the RN), however he currently stands to loose the parliament with his party being third place. In that regard seeing the current cooperation, would there be any chance for him for a limited cooperation with the left to gain a majority in questions that require parliamentary approval or is there an unbridgable rift since the retirement reform? As a second question the left coalition has formed adhoc and seems to be a pretty mixed bag, how coherent is it in terms of where france should head in the future, is the coalition generally eurosceptic or is it just Mélenchon and La France insoumise?

Anne-Sylvaine Chassany: Bonjour from Paris: French voters have defied pollsters’ predictions by making the leftwing Nouveau Front Populaire alliance the largest force in parliament, so your question on the ability of Macron’s centrists to work with leftwing MPs - and vice versa - is really at the heart of the coalition discussions.

Now the centrists led by prime minister Gabriel Attal will lead talks in parliament to see whether they can get the more moderate parties in the NFP - i.e. the Socialists, Greens and Communists - to agree some sort of pact, excluding the far-left La France Insoumise. They would in theory be able form a majority government, with more than 289 seats.

But as you rightly point out, there will be hard negotiations over the contentious pension reform. The more moderate elements on the left are still requesting the reform be simply repealed, which is probably a no go for the centrists. Will the rift be unbridgeable? Maybe not: they could perhaps agree to review some of the most contentious clauses. They could find a language that suits everyone. I think it will be hard not to get some sort of compromise on pensions. Taxes will be a contentious topic too, as Attal has pledged not to raise them and the NFP wants to massively hike them.

On your second question: the NFP has rushed to cobble together a manifesto in two days despite their wide differences. These differences will come back to the fore - on European integration, foreign policy and the economy. However the most radical elements of the NFP, LFI, are a minority within the alliance and French political history teaches us that whenever the left has reached power the more moderate, market-oriented forces - the realists - have eventually taken over.

FT reader, Man about town: Circa 10% of French debt matures over the next 12 months. With this Political deadlock, how big a premium -over German bunds- will France have to pay to refinance /roll over this debt? Will Germany stump up or will there be a Euro crisis?

Andy Bounds: The spread is heading towards 1 percentage point. The prospect of a leftwing government could make it harder to cut spending and the French budget deficit is already above 5 per cent of GDP. But interest rates are unlikely to rise as inflation is coming under control. So there should not be a euro crisis. Germany does not have any firepower as it is having to make cuts itself.

Want more? The conversation continued in the comments below, so please read on: