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Empty Planet: The Shock of Global Population Decline Paperback – February 4, 2020


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An award-winning journalist and leading international social researcher make the provocative argument that the global population will soon begin to decline, dramatically reshaping the social, political, and economic landscape
 
For half a century, statisticians, pundits, and politicians have warned that a burgeoning population will soon overwhelm the earth's resources. But a growing number of experts are sounding a different alarm. Rather than continuing to increase exponentially, they argue, the global population is headed for a steep decline—and in many countries, that decline has already begun.
 
In
Empty Planet, John Ibbitson and Darrell Bricker find that a smaller global population will bring with it many benefits: fewer workers will command higher wages; the environment will improve; the risk of famine will wane; and falling birthrates in the developing world will bring greater affluence and autonomy for women.
 
But enormous disruption lies ahead, too. We can already see the effects in Europe and parts of Asia, as aging populations and worker shortages weaken the economy and impose crippling demands on healthcare and social security. The United States and Canada are well-positioned to successfully navigate these coming demographic shifts--that is, unless growing isolationism leads us to close ourselves off just as openness becomes more critical to our survival than ever.
 
Rigorously researched and deeply compelling,
Empty Planet offers a vision of a future that we can no longer prevent--but one that we can shape, if we choose.

Praise for Empty Planet
 
“An ambitious reimagining of our demographic future.”
The New York Times Book Review
 
“The authors combine a mastery of social-science research with enough journalistic flair to convince fair-minded readers of a simple fact: Fertility is falling faster than most experts can readily explain, driven by persistent forces.”
The Wall Street Journal
 
“The beauty of this book is that it links hard-to-grasp global trends to the easy to-understand individual choices being made all over the world today . . . a gripping narrative of a world on the cusp of profound change.”
The New Statesman

“John Ibbitson and Darrell Bricker have written a sparkling and enlightening guide to the contemporary world of fertility as small family sizes and plunging rates of child-bearing go global.”–The Globe and Mail

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Editorial Reviews

Review

“Arresting. . . lucid, trenchant and very readable, the authors' arguments upend consensus ideas about everything from the environment to immigration; the result is a stimulating challenge to conventional wisdom."Publishers Weekly (starred review)

“Warnings of catastrophic world overpopulation have filled the media since the 1960s, so this expert, well-researched explanation that it's not happening will surprise many readers…delightfully stimulating.”
Kirkus Reviews (starred review)

"
Thanks to the authors’ painstaking fact-finding and cogent analysis, [Empty Planet] offers ample and persuasive arguments for a re-evaluation of conventional wisdom."Booklist

“The ‘everything you know is wrong’ genre has become tedious, but this book is riveting and vitally important. With eye-opening data and lively writing, Bricker and Ibbitson show that the world is radically changing in a way that few people appreciate.”
—Steven Pinker, Johnstone Professor of Psychology, Harvard University, and author of The Better Angels of Our Nature and Enlightenment Now
 
“While the global population is swelling today, birth rates have nonetheless already begun dropping around the world. Past population declines have been driven by natural disasters or disease—the Toba supervolcano, Black Death or Spanish Flu—but this coming slump will be of our own making. In this fascinating and thought-provoking book, Bricker and Ibbitson compellingly argue why by the end of this century the problem won't be overpopulation but a rapidly shrinking global populace, and how we might have to adapt.”
—Lewis Dartnell, Professor of Science Communication, University of Westminster, and author of The Knowledge: How to Rebuild our World from Scratch
 
“To get the future right we must challenge our assumptions, and the biggest assumption so many of us make is that populations will keep growing. Bricker and Ibbitson deliver a mind-opening challenge that should be taken seriously by anyone who cares about the long-term future — which, I hope, is all of us.”
—Dan Gardner, author of Risk and co-author of Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
 
“A highly readable, controversial insight into a world rarely thought about—a world of depopulation under ubiquitous urbanization.”
–George Magnus, author of The Age of Aging and Red Flags: Why Xi's China is in Jeopardy

“This briskly readable book demands urgent attention."
–The Mail on Sunday
 
“A fascinating study.”–The Sunday Times

“Refreshingly clear and well balanced.”Literary Review

About the Author

Darrell Bricker is chief executive officer of Ipsos Public Affairs, the world's leading social and opinion research firm. John Ibbitson is writer at large for the Globe and Mail, Canada's national newspaper. Successful authors on their own, their first collaboration was on The Big Shift, a study of change in Canadian politics that became a #1 national bestseller.

Product details

  • Publisher ‏ : ‎ Crown; Reprint edition (February 4, 2020)
  • Language ‏ : ‎ English
  • Paperback ‏ : ‎ 304 pages
  • ISBN-10 ‏ : ‎ 1984823221
  • ISBN-13 ‏ : ‎ 978-1984823229
  • Item Weight ‏ : ‎ 7.6 ounces
  • Dimensions ‏ : ‎ 5.14 x 0.62 x 7.98 inches
  • Customer Reviews:

About the author

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Darrell Bricker
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Dr. Darrell Bricker is CEO, Ipsos Public Affairs. Ipsos’ Public Affairs has offices in 38 countries and a staff of 800 research professionals. It is the world's leading social and public opinion research firm.

Ipsos Public Affairs is part of Paris-based Ipsos which is the 3rd largest market research company in the world.

Prior to joining Ipsos in 1990, Dr. Bricker was Director of Research in the office of Canada's Prime Minister. He was also a research consultant with firms in Ottawa and Toronto.

Dr. Bricker holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from Carleton University (where he was a Social Science and Humanities Research Council Doctoral Fellow), and a BA and MA from Wilfrid Laurier University. He has also been awarded an Honorary Doctor of Laws Degree by Wilfrid Laurier University, which named him one of their top 100 graduates in the last 100 years.

Darrell is a prolific author. He's written five national bestselling books, Searching for Certainty: Inside the New Canadian Mindset (with Ed Greenspon - Doubleday, 2002), What Canadians Think About Almost Everything (with John Wright – Doubleday, 2005), We Know What You’re Thinking (with John Wright - Harper Collins, 2009), Canuckology (with John Wright - Harper Collins, 2011), and The Big Shift (with John Ibbitson - Harper Collins, 2013). In February 2019, Dr. Bricker will publish his sixth book, Empty Planet: The Shock of Global Population Decline (with John Ibbitson).

For Empty Planet, Bricker and Ibbitson travelled to six continents, talking with specialists and a wide assortment of women and men--from university students in Seoul to slum-dwellers in Delhi--as they explored the conviction held by a growing body of demographers that global population decline, rather than rapid growth, will define this century. The book is published by The Crown Publishing Group in the United States; Little, Brown in Great Britain and McClelland & Stewart in Canada. The work is also available around the world in English through Little, Brown, and is being published in Chinese, Spanish, Japanese and Korean.

Darrell is also a popular public speaker who regularly engages with audiences around the world. He is interviewed frequently in the media, appearing on CNN, the BBC, Bloomberg, and Al Jazeera, as well as on all of Canada's major television and radio networks. He's written articles for publications as diverse as Canada's Globe and Mail and France's Le Monde.

You can follow Darrell on Twitter at @darrellbricker

Customer reviews

4.2 out of 5 stars
655 global ratings

Customers say

Customers find the book interesting and well-written. They appreciate the message about inclusion and diversity. However, some readers feel the book is well-researched and well argued, while others say it's poorly informed and flawed.

AI-generated from the text of customer reviews

29 customers mention "Readability"26 positive3 negative

Customers find the book interesting, brilliant, and reassuring. They say it presents interesting trends and reasons for them. They also say the book is well-documented and worth a careful, considered read.

"...two people collaborating to write it, and it is an encouraging, engaging page turner that also provides realistic cautions for the path ahead. '..." Read more

"Empty Planet is a worthwhile read, though it does have its blind spots...." Read more

"...Again: Overall, the book is still very interesting and worth a read, but keep your mind open and, even though some of it is extremely interesting..." Read more

"...Bricker and Ibbitson are brilliant and at times very insightful...." Read more

11 customers mention "Writing style"11 positive0 negative

Customers find the writing style well written and solid. They also say the book lays out these changes simply.

"...This should not dissuade the reader because the book is well-written, well-argued, and well-substantiated...." Read more

"...It's superbly written. The key to our survivability as a planet is in the hands of women, namely birthrate...." Read more

"This book is well-written, not overly technical, and presents a positive view of a future with lower populations...." Read more

"Good research and not too hard to read, but is now dated and seriously needs to be updated with current data...." Read more

12 customers mention "Research"8 positive4 negative

Customers are mixed about the research. Some find it well researched and reasoned, while others say it's biased and a political hit job.

"...A great read and the authors present very plausible explanations why their population predictions make more sense than the official UN numbers...." Read more

"...Its attitude is deeply neoliberal, and some of its analysis ultimately comes across as contradictory...." Read more

"...of growth rates is for now still very tentative, but the argument is well laid out and logical...." Read more

"This book is a well-reasoned critique of the U.N. population projections from now to 2100...." Read more

9 customers mention "Informativeness"4 positive5 negative

Customers are mixed about the informativeness of the book. Some mention it's well-written, well-argued, and presents solid data. Others say it'd be better off skipping it.

"...attitude is deeply neoliberal, and some of its analysis ultimately comes across as contradictory...." Read more

"...should not dissuade the reader because the book is well-written, well-argued, and well-substantiated...." Read more

"...Nothing could be further from the truth. Research unneeded. He was the son of an immigrant and married two separate immigrants...." Read more

"...That's in a nutshell the thesis of the book, which is very well supported throughout the book...." Read more

Top reviews from the United States

Reviewed in the United States on February 10, 2019
What if, instead of a suffocatingly overcrowded world, the future of humanity is actually defined by a steep loss of population? Not a genocide, epidemic, nuclear war, or meteor strike that reduces our numbers, but rather a shift in economics and quality of life that causes us to have fewer or no children. That is what Darrell Bricker and John Ibbitson propose is already taking place in many nations around the world, including the likes of Hungary and Japan, and which they believe will become common in developed and even developing nations in the years ahead.

The authors did their homework, not only digging through census data, demographic studies, and historical records, but also going to places like Korea, India, and Brazil to speak with people — women, in particular — about their experiences and motivations with marriage and family planning decisions. They manage to weave a cohesive story around these vignettes tied in with the results of their research, one that is so engaging I could barely bring myself to put the book down until I finished.

You might think that population reduction is a great thing, and to a certain extent it can be, but Bricker and Ibbitson explain that there is a definite down side to not at least maintaining a population. With fewer producers and consumers, the economy is weakened, and without sufficient young people paying taxes, old-age benefits become unsustainable. Some nations that are already shrinking through attrition, like Hungary and Japan, also tend to be unwelcoming or even hostile to immigrants, making their situation all the more precarious. The United States and Canada are cited as examples of immigrant societies that can remain healthy long term, so long as they don't deviate from their historic acceptance of newcomers. As we know, nativist sentiment is strong in certain sectors of the US right now, despite historic lows in migration. In fact, people have been moving from the US back to their home countries in large numbers since 2008.

"Remigration will be an increasing phenomenon in the years ahead, as immigrants are tempted to return whence they came, back to their family and their people and proper food. Developed countries in need of migrants to sustain their populations should be doing everything in their power to keep them. Instead, they have become increasingly hostile to newcomers, which is a highly self-defeating attitude." (pg 149)

A moment of introspection came to me when the authors pointed out the flaw in how people on the left generally respond to such attitudes.

"But the blame for this sorry state lies not only with the populist, nativist nationalists on the right. Defenders of immigration on the left contribute too, by characterizing immigration as a test of personal compassion and tolerance. To oppose immigration, for them, is to be selfish at best and racist at worst. People do not respond well to such insults. They tend to lash out at their accusers, damning them as out-of-touch elites, and then voting for the politician they think will have their back. What sensible politicians of both the left and the right need to explain is that accepting immigrants isn't a question of compassion and tolerance. It's good for business. It grows the economy. It increases the tax base. People are much more easily moved to act in their own selfish interests than to sacrifice for the sake of others." (pg 152)

While I'm certain that racism is behind a great deal of the anti-immigrant rhetoric of our time, calling it out as such in every case is counterproductive. It is reasonable to want immigrants, because the economy isn't a static pie that people take slices from, but rather value in the form of products and services that human action generates through creativity and labor. This goes to the roots of how I have long understood economics, and I think I'd be doing myself a favor to get back into that mindset, while also making the moral case for immigration and welcoming refugees.

Honestly, yes there will be some who will hate that this book utilizes data that appear to minimize the struggles of refugees and others. That would be missing the point. Of course there are very real problems that must be addressed, something that the authors are emphatic about. Just because some things are better now doesn't mean the status quo is acceptable.

This book is surprisingly fluid for having two people collaborating to write it, and it is an encouraging, engaging page turner that also provides realistic cautions for the path ahead. 'Empty Planet' is definitely worth a careful, considered read.
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Reviewed in the United States on February 16, 2019
Empty Planet is a worthwhile read, though it does have its blind spots. Its fundamental thesis that urbanization and education are accelerating fertility declines at a much faster rate than the media and powers that be are indicating, and that that will have profound consequences, is sound. Indeed, it’s refreshing to read a book that aims to go against the grain of opinion – as so many claim to do – that’s written by bona fide professionals who have worked in the field. The complex topics of demography, large scale social changes, and politics are laid out in a digestible and enjoyable fashion. The urbanization and sexual emancipation that the developing world is currently experiencing, which will produce a much less crowded world, has for too long been underestimated. It’s nice that this belief is finally being given due consideration.

That’s not to say, however, that all of the book’s analysis is always sound. As someone who is interested in demography as a hobby, I can’t speak much to the trends taking place in Africa and South America (though I do believe the authors’ points on them), but I was bothered by their analysis of the United States.

Namely, I don’t understand how anyone who has spent so much time studying demography could have the opinion that “Spanish will supplement English as the common tongue” in the US. There are widely available studies that disprove this assertion, which is erroneously held by far too many people, ironically. Five minutes on Pew Research will tell you that Spanish in the United States is on the same trajectory that German took in early 20th century America: dead by the third generation. And if every other group on earth is going to become less religious over time, why doesn’t that apply to American Latinos? It is nice however that they (briefly) allude to Richard Alba’s belief that our social categories will simply expand, and never reach a majority-minority tipping point.

But it’s in later chapters that this book’s issues really become apparent. Its attitude is deeply neoliberal, and some of its analysis ultimately comes across as contradictory. Increasing immigration is a fundamental necessity for Bricker and Ibbitson, who have little time for its critics. Yet the book’s fundamental thesis is that in the not so distant future, developing nations aren’t going to have surplus populations to send to us. The push and pull factors will lessen over time. So where will these people come from?

Increasing population is the foundation of economic growth, they say, which is of course the key to everything. Now, I understand the benefits of regarding humans as economic units, but it’s not the be all and end all. There will be some positives to a smaller population in Japan and elsewhere, alongside just a smaller ecological footprint. The glut in housing will make it more affordable again. Labor shortages will finally improve wages. The book spends zero time dwelling on these benefits to regular people. I can’t help but feel that Bricker and Ibbitson run in Toronto circles dominated by affluent business and property owning people, who are more than happy to see wages continue to stagnant, and property prices continue to rise.

In fact if you’re from Canada, perhaps you’ll know the sort of Toronto-bubble that I’m referring to. The hard capitalistic attitude hidden behind the insufferable virtue signalling. They champion multiculturalism purely because it facilitates greater immigration, which in turn creates economic growth. Economic growth is the only thing that’s important to them. They have no real love for regional or indigenous cultures of any kind in the long run. The book even bizarrely goes so far as to lament that mass immigration has doomed Indigenous populations around the world to cultural and demographic annihilation, whilst waxing romantic about Canada’s own mass immigration system that will continue that process. Oh well! It’s sad, but Canada must maintain its GDP growth! They even go so far as to admit that “the weaker the culture, the easier the task of promoting multiculturalism. The less the sense of self, the less the sense that another is the Other”. In what universe should a "weak culture" and "less sense of self" be sought after? Let alone be enriching?

So, Bricker and Ibbitson come across in these later chapters as the perfect example of naïve, sheltered cosmopolitans who speak of vast changes with an air of detachment. They will never see their own culture wiped out by globalization. They will never experience the indignity of a layoff that comes with being viewed solely as a unit of output in a global economic system. It leaves a bad tastes in one’s mouth when you appreciate their way of viewing the world.
22 people found this helpful
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Top reviews from other countries

Suzan
5.0 out of 5 stars Riveting Read
Reviewed in Canada on September 26, 2023
I read this in one sitting. I couldn't put it down. It cited many studies and publications to support the ideas presented.
I can't stop thinking about it. I recommended it to my book club and we discuss it at our next meeting.
Simon Rotelli
4.0 out of 5 stars Lettura molto interessante!
Reviewed in Italy on December 19, 2021
In effetti questa tesi apparenentemente controcorrente mi sembra molto più verosimile rispetto a quella ufficiale.

Il libro non si accanisce contro la tesi ufficiale dell'esplosione demografica, ma attraverso ragionamenti e dati delle aree a maggior crescita attesa, riesce a far prevalere il pensiero di un repentino rallentamento, seguito da un rapido calo demografico.

Il tempo dirà chi ha ragione, certo a valutazioni diametralmente opposte si dovrebbero accompagnare politiche contrarie rispetto a quelle attuate in questo momento, quindi non un errore da poco da parte delle istituzioni internazionali.
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William Jordan
5.0 out of 5 stars thought provoking book on demographic trends
Reviewed in the United Kingdom on April 27, 2021
This book was a great read. The authors have discussed with young women around the world their lives and the part that having children will play in them. They paint memorable pictures of a great diversity of societies. In all birth rates are declining. In some population numbers are already in decline. Causes include urbanisation, education of women and affluence. 'Answers' for individual countries may include immigration - but needs to be accompanied by Canada style multiculturalism. The final chapter suggests that living in towns is also the single best answer to global warming (alongside the declines in fertility discussed in the book)....Strongly recommended...
3 people found this helpful
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Arsalan
5.0 out of 5 stars Must read
Reviewed in India on February 19, 2021
A nice read for all those who love Non fiction. The world is a global village . This books tells me about how immigration helped to sustain great nations .
Edison Bittencourt
4.0 out of 5 stars Ma interpretação de autor de "Empty Planet..
Reviewed in Brazil on October 18, 2019
Um dos autores em uma matéria do YouTube (empty planet...) visitou São Paulo (a cidade) e fez observações sobre natalidade mencionando a condição de "muito pobre" com relação ao que analisava na cidade, generalizando em termos de Brasil. Acontece que São Paulo é a cidade que é a décima mais rica do planeta. Foi à cidade errada.