Oscar Predictions: Best Picture — Fall Festivals Kick Off Early Awards Buzz for ‘Blitz,’ ‘Joker 2’ and ‘Maria’
Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
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2025 Oscars Predictions:
Best Picture
Weekly Commentary (Updated July 27, 2024): The early buzz for possible awards contenders has begun.
Venice Film Festival revealed its lineup with a star-studded affair with the world premieres of Todd Phillips’ “Joker: Folie à Deux,” Pablo Larraín’s “Maria” and Luca Guadgnino’s “Queer,” all hoping to make a solid first impression on the international circuit.
In Toronto, the slate is headlined with films by Mike Leigh (“Hard Truths”), Ron Howard (“Eden”), and John Crowley (“We Live in Time”). In addition, Oscar-winning editor William Goldenberg is making his directorial debut with “Unstoppable” starring Jharrel Jerome and Jennifer Lopez, which could be a commercial awards play.
Read: All Primetime Emmy predictions in every category on Variety’s Awards Circuit.
Telluride doesn’t release its lineup until the day before the fest begins on Aug. 30. Still, Variety has pointed to the potential strong lineup based on the film’s classifications at other festivals. Among those, it will include the world premieres of possible contenders such as Edward Berger’s “Conclave,” RaMell Ross’ “Nickel Boys,” Morgan Neville’s “Piece by Piece,” and Joshua Oppenheimer’s “The End.” In addition, replays from Cannes could also get their bows stateside, including Jacques Audiard’s “Emilia Pérez.”
We also got a first look at James Mangold’s Bob Dylan biopic “A Complete Unknown,” with confirmation that it will be dropping in December but avoiding the fall festival circuit. Watch out for the movie to potentially crash the awards season significantly, especially with star and producer Timothée Chalamet supporting the project.
The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2. The full rankings are below. All movie listings, titles, distributors, and credited producers are not final and are subject to change.
** denotes the film is not yet dated or can open in 2025.
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Image Credit: Warner Bros. And the Predicted Nominees Are
Rank Film 1 “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Jacques Audiard, Pascal Caucheteux, Valérie Schermann, Anthony Vacarello2 “Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
Lucy Fisher, David Franzoni, Michael Pruss, Ridley Scott, Douglas Wick3 “Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
Steve McQueen, Arnon Milchan, Yariv Milchan, Eric Fellner, Tim Bevan, Michael Schaefer4 “Nickel Boys” (Amazon MGM/Orion)
Joslyn Barnes, Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, David Levine5 “A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
Fred Berger, Bob Bookman, Nina Byrne, Timothée Chalamet, Alan Gasmer, Alex Heineman, Peter Jaysen, James Mangold, Jeff Rosen6 “The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Agustín Almodóvar7 “Conclave” (Focus Features)
Alice Dawson, Robert Harris, Juliette Howell, Michael Jackman, Tessa Ross8 “Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.)
Todd Phillips, Emma Tillinger Koskoff, Joseph Garner9 “Anora” (Neon)
Sean Baker, Alex Coco, Samantha Quan10 “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
Cale Boyter, Tanya Lapointe, Mary Parent, Denis VilleneuveBest Motion Picture (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions) -
Image Credit: Courtesy of Cannes Film Festival Next in Line
Rank Film 11 “The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation) 12 “The Piano Lesson” (Netflix) 13 “SNL: 1975” (Sony Pictures) 14 “Sing Sing” (A24) 15 “Maria” (No U.S. Distribution) 16 “A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures) 17 “The End” (Neon) 18 “The Seed of the Sacred Fig” (Neon) 19 “Challengers” (Amazon MGM) 20 “Wicked” (Universal Pictures) Best Motion Picture (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions) -
Image Credit: Sam Levy/Netflix Other Contenders
Rank Film 21 “His Three Daughters” (Netflix) 22 “Memoir of a Snail” (IFC Films) 23 “Inside Out 2” (Pixar) 24 “We Live in Time” (A24) 25 “Eden” (No U.S. Distribution) 26 “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” (Warner Bros.) 27 “Better Man” (Paramount Pictures) 28 “Piece by Piece” (Focus Features) 29 “In the Summers” (Music Box Films) 30 “The Substance” (Mubi) Best Motion Picture (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions) -
Image Credit: Courtesy of Brady Corbet Also In Contention
Rank Film 31 “All We Imagine as Light” (Janus Films/Sideshow) 32 “Here” (Sony Pictures) 33 “Babygirl” (A24) 34 “The Friend” (No U.S. Distribution) 35 “Hard Truths” (Bleecker Street) 36 “The Apprentice” (No U.S. Distribution) 37 “Queer” (No U.S. Distribution) 38 “Without Blood” (No U.S. Distribution) 39 “Flow” (Janus Films/Sideshow) 40 “The Brutalist” (No U.S. Distribution) Best Motion Picture (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions) -
Eligible Titles (Best Picture)
Image Credit: Apple ** This list is incomplete and not yet finalized. Not all films have distribution or release dates. All are subject to change.
- “The Actor” (Neon) **
- “Alien: Romulus” (20th Century Studios)
- “All We Imagine as Light” (Janus Films/Sideshow)
- “Anora” (Neon)
- “The Apprentice” (No U.S. Distribution) **
- “Babygirl” (A24)
- “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” (Warner Bros.)
- “Better Man” (Paramount Pictures)
- “Between the Temples” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- “The Bikeriders” (Focus Features)
- “Bird” (Mubi)
- “Blink Twice” (Amazon MGM)
- “Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
- “Bob Marley: One Love” (Paramount Pictures)
- “The Brutalist” (No U.S. Distribution)
- “Challengers” (Amazon MGM)
- “Civil War” (A24)
- “A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
- “Conclave” (Focus Features)
- “Daddio” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- “Daughters” (Netflix)
- “Deadpool & Wolverine” (Marvel Studios)
- “The Deb” (No U.S. Distribution) **
- “The Deliverance” (Netflix)
- “Despicable Me 4” (Illumination/Universal Pictures)
- “A Different Man” (A24)
- “Dìdi” (Focus Features)
- “Don’t Let’s Go to the Dogs Tonight” (No U.S. Distribution) **
- “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
- “Echo Valley” (Apple Original Films) **
- “Eden” (No U.S. Distribution) **
- “Elton John: Never Too Late” (Walt Disney Pictures)
- “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
- “Emmanuelle” (Neon) **
- “The End” (Neon)
- “Evil Does Not Exist” (Sideshow)
- “Fancy Dance” (Apple Original Films)
- “The Fire Inside” (Amazon MGM)
- “Firebrand” (Roadside Attractions)
- “Flow” (Janus Films/Sideshow)
- “Frida” (Amazon MGM)
- “The Friend” (No U.S. Distribution) **
- “The Front Room” (A24)
- “Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga” (Warner Bros.)
- “Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
- “Hard Truths” (Bleecker Street)
- “Hedda” (Amazon MGM) **
- “Here” (Sony Pictures)
- “Heretic” (A24)
- “His Three Daughters” (Netflix)
- “Hit Man” (Netflix)
- “Horizon: An American Saga — Chapter 1” (Warner Bros.)
- “I Am Celine Dion” (Amazon MGM)
- “I Saw the TV Glow” (A24)
- “I’m Still Here” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- “The Idea of You” (Amazon MGM)
- “IF” (Paramount Pictures)
- “The Imaginary” (Netflix)
- “In the Summers” (Music Box Films)
- “It Ends With Us” (Sony Pictures)
- “Janet Planet” (A24)
- “Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.)
- “K-Pops” (No U.S. Distribution) **
- “Kinds of Kindness” (Searchlight Pictures)
- “Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes” (20th Century Studios)
- “Klara and the Sun” (Sony Pictures) **
- “Kneecap” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- “The Last Showgirl” (No U.S. Distribution) **
- “Lee” (Roadside Attractions)
- “The Life of Chuck” (No U.S. Distribution) **
- “Longlegs” (Neon)
- “Love Lies Bleeding” (A24)
- “Maria” (No U.S. Distribution) **
- “Meet the Barbarians” (No U.S. Distribution) **
- “Megalopolis” (Lionsgate)
- “Memoir of a Snail” (IFC Films)
- “Millers in Marriage” (No U.S. Distribution) **
- “Misericordia” (Janus Films) **
- “Moana 2” (Walt Disney Pictures)
- “Monkey Man” (Universal Pictures)
- “The Most Precious of Cargoes” (StudioCanal)
- “Mothers’ Instinct” (Neon)
- “Mufasa: The Lion King” (Walt Disney Pictures)
- “My Old Ass” (Amazon MGM)
- “Nickel Boys” (Amazon MGM/Orion)
- “Nightbitch” (Searchlight Pictures)
- “Nosferatu” (Focus Features)
- “Oh, Canada” (No U.S. Distribution) **
- “On Becoming a Guinea Fowl” (A24)
- “On Swift Horses” (No U.S. Distribution) **
- “The Order” (Vertical Entertainment)
- “The Outrun” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- “Parthenope” (A24)
- “The Penguin Lessons” (No U.S. Distribution) **
- “The Piano Lesson” (Netflix)
- “Piece by Piece” (Focus Features)
- “Polaris” (No U.S. Distribution) **
- “Queer” (No U.S. Distribution) **
- “Quisling – The Final Days” (No U.S. Distribution) **
- “A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures)
- “Relay” (No U.S. Distribution) **
- “The Return” (No U.S. Distribution) **
- “Rez Ball” (Netflix)
- “Riff Raff” (No U.S. Distribution) **
- “The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- “Rumours” (Bleecker Street)
- “Sasquatch Sunset” (Bleecker Street)
- “The Seed of the Sacred Fig” (Neon)
- “Shirley” (Netflix)
- “The Shrouds” (No U.S. Distribution) **
- “Sing Sing” (A24)
- “Six Triple Eight” (Netflix)
- “Small Things Like These” (Lionsgate)
- “SNL: 1975” (Sony Pictures)
- “Sonic the Hedgehog 3” (Paramount Pictures)
- “Spellbound” (Netflix)
- “Stopmotion” (IFC/Shudder)
- “The Substance” (Mubi)
- “Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story” (Warner Bros.)
- “That Christmas” (Netflix)
- “Thelma” (Magnolia Pictures)
- “Transformers One” (Paramount Pictures)
- “Tuesday” (A24)
- “Twisters” (Universal Pictures)
- “Ultraman: Rising” (Netflix)
- “Unstoppable” (Amazon MGM)
- “Venom: The Last Dance” (Sony Pictures)
- “Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl” (Netflix)
- “We Grown Now” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- “We Live in Time” (A24)
- “Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
- “The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation)
- “Wildcat” (Oscilloscope Laboratories)
- “Without Blood” (No U.S. Distribution) **
- “Woman of the Hour” (Netflix)
- “Young Werther” (No U.S. Distribution) **
- “Young Woman and the Sea” (Walt Disney Pictures)
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More Information (Oscars: Best Picture)
Image Credit: Getty 2024 category winner: “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures) — Emma Thomas, Charles Roven and Christopher Nolan
2024-2025 Oscars Calendar and Timeline (all dates are subject to change)
- Eligibility period: Jan. 1, 2024 – Dec. 31, 2024
- General entry, best picture, RAISE submission deadline: Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024
- Governors Awards: Sunday, Nov. 17, 2024
- Preliminary voting begins Monday, Dec. 9, 2024, at 9 a.m. PT.
- Preliminary voting ends Friday, Dec. 13, 2024, at 5 p.m. PT.
- Oscar Shortlists Announcement: Tuesday, Dec. 17, 2024
- Eligibility period ends: Tuesday, Dec. 31, 2024
- Nominations voting begins Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025, at 9 a.m. PT.
- Nominations voting ends Sunday, Jan. 12, 2025, at 5 p.m. PT.
- Oscar Nominations Announcement: Friday, Jan. 17, 2025
- Oscar Nominees Luncheon: Monday, Feb. 10, 2025
- Final voting begins Tuesday, Feb. 11, 2025, at 9 a.m. PT
- Final voting ends: Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025, at 5 p.m. PT
- Scientific and Technical Awards: Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025
- 97th Oscars: Sunday, March 2, 2025
Oscars Prediction Categories
— — Best Picture Director Actor in a Leading Role Actress in a Leading Role Actor in a Supporting Role Actress in a Supporting Role Original Screenplay Adapted Screenplay Animated Feature Production Design Cinematography Costume Design Film Editing Makeup and Hairstyling Sound Visual Effects Original Score Original Song Documentary Feature International Feature Animated Short Documentary Short Live Action Short Casting (coming in 2026) 2024 Oscar Predictions (Variety Awards Circuit) About the Academy Awards
The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.