MNI

🇪🇺 💥 MNI ECB Preview - July Hold, September Cut: - Although the bank has previously shown that its data dependence & meeting-by-meeting approach has a degree of inbuilt flexibility, there is no need to pre-commit to a September cut at this juncture - Given the stickiness of domestic inflationary pressures (namely service prices) we continue to caution that a ‘one-and-done’ is a small, but still significant, risk for 2024 Get briefed via our preview 👇 https://lnkd.in/eaput42w #marcoeconomics #ezeconomy #inflation #globalmacro

In my interview with David Robinson MNI we review the UK inflation dynamics focusing on the supercore inflation and supercore wage measures that I introduced in "At the Core of UK inflation" (https://lnkd.in/du5y3tBp). The BOE should not be afraid to cut next week. #CPI #BOE #Inflation #UK #interestrates

❗ 🇨🇦 MNI BoC Preview, July 24: A Back-To-Back Cut But Beware Betting On Third: - The BoC is widely expected to cut rates again - but could opt for a surprise hold - Recent inflation trends have reversed the impressive progress seen earlier in '24 but remain within the target band - The unemployment rate should help see a cut through this month, however, the recent push higher in core inflation could warrant caution ahead Get briefed via our preview 👇 https://lnkd.in/eaput42w #bankofcanada #macroeconomics #globalmacro #inflation

🇬🇧 ❗ MNI UK CPI and Labour Market Data Preview: - There are generally assumed to be upside risks to inflation (from Taylor Swift concerts primarily) this month, but this could be shrugged off if ex-Swift components are slower - We think there are upside risks to private sector regular wage growth relative to consensus & in fact think an unchanged print of 5.8%Y/Y in the 3-months to May is more likely than a print in line with consensus of 5.6%Y/Y. Get briefed via our preview 👇 https://lnkd.in/eaput42w #macroeconomics #ukeconomy #inflation #globalmacro #ukcpi

"The most important part of the report is if you just take the entire CPI and take out the shelter component it's really been running at or below the Fed's target for about a year," Tilley said. Thank you Pedro da Costa and MNI. https://lnkd.in/gDRUqAB2

Platiqué con Larissa Garcia de lo que podría estar haciendo Banco de México hacia delante, principalmente ante el incremento de corto plazo en la inflación de agrícolas. Junto con la publicación de las minutas el día de hoy, me parece que Banxico cortará tasa en agosto (votación dividida 3-2) y una vez más en diciembre. Muchas gracias por la oportunidad MNI. Actinver Bursanet Reto Actinver Acelera Academy

💥 MNI US CPI Preview - Hawkish Surprise Poses Greatest Risk to Markets - Consensus sees CPI slowing at fastest pace this year - There is an unusually wide range of estimates for core & uncertainty surrounding some sub-indices - Uncertainty in the details may heighten market's caution in interpreting the release Get briefed via our preview 👇 https://lnkd.in/eaput42w #globalmacro #useconomy #uscpi #macroeconomics #inflation

❗ 🇺🇸  MNI US Payrolls Preview - Watching For Guide on Sept Cut Prospects: - Job gains are expected to moderate in June after a surprisingly strong May - However, with heightened uncertainty around what’s the genuine pace of employment growth, there could be a greater focus on the unemployment rate to assess labor market imbalances - Data volatility could see the unemployment rate lower on a rounded basis Get briefed via our preview 👇 https://lnkd.in/eaput42w #macroeconomics #useconomy #globalmacro

 🇫🇷 💥 MNI French Legislative Election Preview: - Macron's surprise election call could most consequential vote in Europe for decades - Our scenario analysis goes through the most & least-likely outcomes over the two rounds - We also include a thorough briefing on France's complex electoral system for the National Assembly Get briefed via our preview 👇 https://lnkd.in/eaput42w #macroeconomics #frenchelection #globalmacro