First Trust Global Portfolios

"There are signs US economic growth is slowing down. In particular, jobless claims, perhaps the best high-frequency economic indicator, have averaged 235,000 per week in the last four weeks versus 211,000 in the first quarter. Meanwhile, continuing jobless claims are creeping up while overall retail sales are up a meager 0.2% in the past six months, slower than the pace of inflation. The US is not in a recession at this point but higher claims and soft sales, along with a renewed deceleration in inflation, suggest that the drop in the M2 measure of the money supply from early 2022 through late 2023 is finally gaining traction." Read more in the latest Wesbury Weekly Outlook here > https://lnkd.in/e-7QUeSp Brian Wesbury #economicanalysis #recession #useconomics #economicgrowth

"The resulting spike in inflation in 2021-22 certainly didn’t surprise us, and it should not have surprised anyone else. Yet it did. Many went out of their way to find other things to blame for inflation. They ignored M2, and blamed “Putin” or “supply chains” and called inflation “transitory.” Sure, some prices were boosted by the lockdowns and war, but that was only a small fraction of the problem." Read more in the latest Wesbury Weekly Outlook here > https://lnkd.in/eZTFxA7k Brian Wesbury #useconomics #inflation #economicanalysis #supplychains

"We aren’t naturally cynical about economic data, but there are things that don’t add up about the job market. On the surface, Friday’s report was solid, with nonfarm payrolls up more than 200,000 in June, another good month. However, downward revisions to the prior two months reduced the net gain in total payrolls to just 95,000, with a net gain of only 50,000 for the private sector. Now for the strange parts..." Read more in the latest Wesbury Weekly Outlook here > https://lnkd.in/emHipjvW Brian Wesbury #economicoutlook #labormarket #useconomics #employment

Just wrapped up our roadshow on the 2024 U.S. Election with Stuart J. Sweet from Capitol Analysts Network. Across Lyon, Paris, London, Zurich, Geneva, Amsterdam, Milan and Luxembourg, we uncovered key insights: a close, volatile race with several "wild cards," the chance of a party sweep, and potentially major market implications. Thanks to all who joined us! #Election2024 #MarketOutlook #USCommentary 

"We believe FOMO (fear of missing out) is again a big component of the narrow rally in the last two months. Investors with too little exposure to the Magnificent 7, AI stocks or the technology sector are tempted to enter the space. They worry about missing out on future gains and falling even further behind their friends. And investors with huge gains in those areas are concerned about selling their winners in case they continue to climb. They don’t want to leave the party too soon. If you haven’t seen this before, you would think it could go on forever. The problem with FOMO in the financial markets, in our view, is it doesn’t go on forever." Read the latest Market Minute with McGarel here > https://lnkd.in/etQUTZUv

"In 1852, Karl Marx said “Men make their own history, but they do not make it as they please; they do not make it under circumstances chosen by themselves, but under circumstances directly encountered and transmitted from the past.” America has proved that men and women not only can make their own history, but they can make it as they please, with circumstances chosen by themselves. It’s important to take a step back and realize that a Red, White and Blue Swan really did allow people to make their own history and truly change the world! Happy 4th of July to you all." Read more in the latest Wesbury Weekly Outlook here > https://lnkd.in/etNXBZaa Brian Wesbury #economicanalysis #useconomy

Thank you to everyone who joined us in Luxembourg today and Geneva on Wednesday for Stuart J. Sweet's compelling analysis of the upcoming 2024 U.S. presidential election. Stuart discussed Trump's chances of winning, potential impacts on trade, foreign policy, and NATO, congressional control scenarios, impacted sectors, and election tracking strategies. We're excited to continue the tour next week in Amsterdam, London, and Paris! Anis Benatmane Alexandre Pouteau Ghada Rammah #USElection2024 #EconomicOutlook #USCommentary #GlobalMarkets

Thanks to everyone who joined us in Zurich today for our roadshow with Stuart J. Sweet. It was insightful hearing a Washington insider’s view on the upcoming US elections and managing the election year power struggle. Looking forward to the next stop on the tour – Geneva!

"Back in the early days of COVID, there was one key indicator that signaled or predicted the high inflation ahead: the M2 measure of the money supply. Unlike in the aftermath of the Financial Panic and Great Recession of 2008-09, M2 surged at an unprecedented pace in 2020-21. So, while others looked back and said “QE doesn’t cause inflation” we didn’t. While many said that inflation was “transitory,” we warned about inflation going higher and being more persistent. And here we are more than four years past the onset of COVID and inflation is still lingering above the pre-COVID trend." Read more in the latest Wesbury Weekly Outlook here > https://lnkd.in/ecTiGtMD Brian Wesbury #useconomy #inflation #economicanalysis #recession

Thank you to everyone who attended our thematic event in Brussels today, with Gregg Guerin and Carl-Henry Villessaint Cacique. We discussed potential investment opportunities and the latest innovations in AI, Cybersecurity, and Infrastructure.