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Recent
Macro & The Ethereum Trade
This is a very long thread and intends to capture my iterative development around ETH from ~$3200. This is not suggesting you long or short ETH in any capacity, but rather my view on market forces & fundamental analysis underpinning flows
Today's conviction in ETH is borrowed. Most traders who are long ETH are either over-exposed and "need" it to do well given their blended cost basis or are simply taking a directional view from GCR
In June, I wrote about how I believe equities would top in Q3, with the subtlety that the ETH ETF could rally into it. You can find this in my highlights
I pivoted early July, becoming incredibly bearish on Ethereum and the ETH ETF, supported by a contrarian thesis around positioning, flows & game theory. I have shared the below with a small group, whilst iterating & refining
The last 3 weeks have been incredibly difficult to hold conviction, especially given my less than ideal management of the trade. At one point, I actually pivoted long for 8 hours on the day of the ETF launch, hoping to scalp an artificially-manufactured inflow # to push up before sustained flows bringing the trade down. That did not happen and so re-assumed short positioning after
What you must believe:
1) Germany exposed the fragility in crypto reflexivity (unprepared for significant downside move even if nominal - Germany $3B sold vs BTC $1.2T asset)
2) Massive ETH supply glut that have not organically participated in the cycle in actually determining FMV bc of interventionist protocols (LST/LRTs and then the ETH ETF bubble)
3) New money will not come in to backstop ETH to the degree it is being projected / priced in
This is a very long thread and intends to capture my iterative development around ETH from ~$3200. This is not suggesting you long or short ETH in any capacity, but rather my view on market forces & fundamental analysis underpinning flows
Today's conviction in ETH is borrowed. Most traders who are long ETH are either over-exposed and "need" it to do well given their blended cost basis or are simply taking a directional view from GCR
In June, I wrote about how I believe equities would top in Q3, with the subtlety that the ETH ETF could rally into it. You can find this in my highlights
I pivoted early July, becoming incredibly bearish on Ethereum and the ETH ETF, supported by a contrarian thesis around positioning, flows & game theory. I have shared the below with a small group, whilst iterating & refining
The last 3 weeks have been incredibly difficult to hold conviction, especially given my less than ideal management of the trade. At one point, I actually pivoted long for 8 hours on the day of the ETF launch, hoping to scalp an artificially-manufactured inflow # to push up before sustained flows bringing the trade down. That did not happen and so re-assumed short positioning after
What you must believe:
1) Germany exposed the fragility in crypto reflexivity (unprepared for significant downside move even if nominal - Germany $3B sold vs BTC $1.2T asset)
2) Massive ETH supply glut that have not organically participated in the cycle in actually determining FMV bc of interventionist protocols (LST/LRTs and then the ETH ETF bubble)
3) New money will not come in to backstop ETH to the degree it is being projected / priced in
Executive Summary (7/15)
Not calling a top, think prices can still be ~10% higher but the hotter this local rally is, the more convinced I am that it's correct to be HTF bearish
The way I see the tape of events is that election flows are now being front-run - which I expected to happen later in the quarter - given the white swan of Trump effectively confirming his house victory via the shooting (and the subsequent nod to a pro-crypto VP)
The bull case for ETH to me was/is:
1) $ETH manifests as an institutional yield bet
2) $BTC and $COIN flows push toward $ETH
3) Net-negative positioning is caught off-side on major announcements (eg. 19b4, S1)
To address each one:
1) The lack of appetite to support the mid-range for $ETH & lack of ability to de-correlate strongly from BTC has shown that it's still being viewed uniformly. Given the disconnected move in equities (NDX/S&P have retraced open) the "bet" at this point for $ETH if you are layering a long, is that appetite out the gate outperforms consensus estimates. I don't think that will be the case
2) There is not enough money to prop up equities, BTC and ETH. As equities unravel, I think crypto basis $$ becomes "first-out" and think we have categorically under-estimated just how much of this $$ supporting BTC is propped up on this trade (which I believe has confluence with why BTC.D has been so dominant this cycle & why the market has been so hot)
3) ETH OI is up 200M units from the lows (+20%) vs the original 19b4 move (+25%). The playbook is the same: underperformers have no option to but to allocate to ETH / stay in the trade but to endure the volatility, a lot of the money is being recycled/borrowed
The lack of reaction around the S1 announcement is quite telling IMO (40 bps). Funds aren't eager to bid ETH because they are either:
a) holding down from the first move (average $3400 entry where they are B/E) and/or
b) didn't deploy at the lows and want to see confirmation around trading flows to justify a bid.
Therefore, they are bidding alts in the interim to catch some of the lagging reflexivity
I acquit there is a lot of noise because it's difficult to discern how systematic weakness really is given there was such a massive crypto-specific selling event recently eg. (Germany). A lot of the selling has also been happening during Asian hours as well (GOX selling) so there is the chance that we are discounting prior "bearish" events that, if understated, have the potential to create more mean recursion
But I think a lot of the add'l "catalysts" that people are trying to sell you on are extremely overstated (eg. FTX claims - the bulk of these claims are going to distressed buyers who are not crypto-inclined; rate cuts are bullish, etc)
The lynchpin behind this view, to be clear, is that equities have topped at least over the next 6-12M creating widespread defensive positioning. This thesis is completely invalidated if that does not persist to be the case
Not calling a top, think prices can still be ~10% higher but the hotter this local rally is, the more convinced I am that it's correct to be HTF bearish
The way I see the tape of events is that election flows are now being front-run - which I expected to happen later in the quarter - given the white swan of Trump effectively confirming his house victory via the shooting (and the subsequent nod to a pro-crypto VP)
The bull case for ETH to me was/is:
1) $ETH manifests as an institutional yield bet
2) $BTC and $COIN flows push toward $ETH
3) Net-negative positioning is caught off-side on major announcements (eg. 19b4, S1)
To address each one:
1) The lack of appetite to support the mid-range for $ETH & lack of ability to de-correlate strongly from BTC has shown that it's still being viewed uniformly. Given the disconnected move in equities (NDX/S&P have retraced open) the "bet" at this point for $ETH if you are layering a long, is that appetite out the gate outperforms consensus estimates. I don't think that will be the case
2) There is not enough money to prop up equities, BTC and ETH. As equities unravel, I think crypto basis $$ becomes "first-out" and think we have categorically under-estimated just how much of this $$ supporting BTC is propped up on this trade (which I believe has confluence with why BTC.D has been so dominant this cycle & why the market has been so hot)
3) ETH OI is up 200M units from the lows (+20%) vs the original 19b4 move (+25%). The playbook is the same: underperformers have no option to but to allocate to ETH / stay in the trade but to endure the volatility, a lot of the money is being recycled/borrowed
The lack of reaction around the S1 announcement is quite telling IMO (40 bps). Funds aren't eager to bid ETH because they are either:
a) holding down from the first move (average $3400 entry where they are B/E) and/or
b) didn't deploy at the lows and want to see confirmation around trading flows to justify a bid.
Therefore, they are bidding alts in the interim to catch some of the lagging reflexivity
I acquit there is a lot of noise because it's difficult to discern how systematic weakness really is given there was such a massive crypto-specific selling event recently eg. (Germany). A lot of the selling has also been happening during Asian hours as well (GOX selling) so there is the chance that we are discounting prior "bearish" events that, if understated, have the potential to create more mean recursion
But I think a lot of the add'l "catalysts" that people are trying to sell you on are extremely overstated (eg. FTX claims - the bulk of these claims are going to distressed buyers who are not crypto-inclined; rate cuts are bullish, etc)
The lynchpin behind this view, to be clear, is that equities have topped at least over the next 6-12M creating widespread defensive positioning. This thesis is completely invalidated if that does not persist to be the case
Ethereum's Path Dependency (7/16)
On a LTF basis I think consensus around ETH is very lazy around how flows on trading actually move the marginal seller
Organic demand for ETH (relative to BTC) since the 19b4 approval has increasingly compressed. In the best instances we've had to buy ETH (post-Germany sell-off and the S1 approval today) buying has continually gotten more and more muted.
There is a significant amount of "unlocked" ETH with a very low cost basis (<$2500 in my estimates) that has been "restaking" ETH since last summer-onward which came online roughly Q1-Q2 of this year (eg. EL, REZ, MANTA). This is an important consideration, because it means that ETH has not had the same opportunity to sell-off in the same vein that other coins or even BTC have had given TVL held in LSTs and LRTs (40B and 5B respectively)
The existential risk to ETH in the short-term is not ETHE outflows (which honestly I think are over-stated) but actually crypto-native ownership that has been accumulating. I believe that a significant amount of legacy ETH are:
a) still being held as BTC beta, or
b) used as collateral to create more on-chain liquidity and deposits
ETHBTC YTD paints a very clear picture on what organic demand has been relative to majors and alts. TOTAL3 is much lower than it was last cycle so ETH $$ has not exactly went toward the "top of the risk spectrum" - it has simply not gone anywhere / to BTC. Actual ETH betas have been some of the most severe underperformers. ETH-denominated such as NFTs have mostly been down-only, with incredible sell-offs vs the last cycle. The problem is so severe that new OI spun-up to speculate on ETH is happening off-campus around coins like PEPE instead. Why? Because the choice of expression for the crypto-native is to denominate in ETH.
If poor ETH ETF volumes appear on trading, that is a clear demarcation that there is no marginal Trad buyer to offset ETH supply like there has been with BTC (and what caused this tremendous run from 40K -> 70K).
And so there could possibly be a race to the bottom, with what appears to very fragile liquidity in the following chain of operations:
1) S1 longs (already underwater) exit
2) Leveraged Trump longs with a high cost basis ($3100+) don't see a "future catalyst" to bump into
3) $2800 dip buyers hold given their reasonable price entry
4) $2500 on-chain (my estimate) levels are tapped into, creating an existential cascades across DeFi
Low-$2k as the boiling point for ETH is reached
On a LTF basis I think consensus around ETH is very lazy around how flows on trading actually move the marginal seller
Organic demand for ETH (relative to BTC) since the 19b4 approval has increasingly compressed. In the best instances we've had to buy ETH (post-Germany sell-off and the S1 approval today) buying has continually gotten more and more muted.
There is a significant amount of "unlocked" ETH with a very low cost basis (<$2500 in my estimates) that has been "restaking" ETH since last summer-onward which came online roughly Q1-Q2 of this year (eg. EL, REZ, MANTA). This is an important consideration, because it means that ETH has not had the same opportunity to sell-off in the same vein that other coins or even BTC have had given TVL held in LSTs and LRTs (40B and 5B respectively)
The existential risk to ETH in the short-term is not ETHE outflows (which honestly I think are over-stated) but actually crypto-native ownership that has been accumulating. I believe that a significant amount of legacy ETH are:
a) still being held as BTC beta, or
b) used as collateral to create more on-chain liquidity and deposits
ETHBTC YTD paints a very clear picture on what organic demand has been relative to majors and alts. TOTAL3 is much lower than it was last cycle so ETH $$ has not exactly went toward the "top of the risk spectrum" - it has simply not gone anywhere / to BTC. Actual ETH betas have been some of the most severe underperformers. ETH-denominated such as NFTs have mostly been down-only, with incredible sell-offs vs the last cycle. The problem is so severe that new OI spun-up to speculate on ETH is happening off-campus around coins like PEPE instead. Why? Because the choice of expression for the crypto-native is to denominate in ETH.
If poor ETH ETF volumes appear on trading, that is a clear demarcation that there is no marginal Trad buyer to offset ETH supply like there has been with BTC (and what caused this tremendous run from 40K -> 70K).
And so there could possibly be a race to the bottom, with what appears to very fragile liquidity in the following chain of operations:
1) S1 longs (already underwater) exit
2) Leveraged Trump longs with a high cost basis ($3100+) don't see a "future catalyst" to bump into
3) $2800 dip buyers hold given their reasonable price entry
4) $2500 on-chain (my estimate) levels are tapped into, creating an existential cascades across DeFi
Low-$2k as the boiling point for ETH is reached
Kentucky baptist pastor, Dicky Tiller, has been arrested for the rape of a child who attended his church. 
Dicky Tiller, 53, pastor at Spears Mill Baptist Church in Paris, has been charged with first-degree sexual abuse of a minor under the age of 18.
fox56news.com/news/kentucky/…
fox56news.com/news/kentucky/…
Massive escalation: hundreds of missiles and rockets have been launched in the last hour by Hezbollah terrorists in Lebanon towards Israel. The media is silent to prevent damage to the political narrative which always portrays Israel as the "aggressor" and Muslim terrorists as "victims". The UN and the European Union are also silent because no one there cares when Israelis are under attack.
Please retweet if you support Israel's defense of itself!
2.
The UN is on the side of Hezbollah!
The UN is on the side of Hezbollah!
3.
The media is on the side of Hamas and Hezbollah!
The media is on the side of Hamas and Hezbollah!
Michael Phelps does not produce half the amount of lactic acid than everyone else.
That claim is going around. So here’s the debunk…
And even if he did, it wouldn’t necessarily be a good thing.
Oh…and lactate is good, not the enemy.
That claim is going around. So here’s the debunk…
And even if he did, it wouldn’t necessarily be a good thing.
Oh…and lactate is good, not the enemy.
So first off it’s lactate, not lactic acid.
Second. It doesn’t cause fatigue. It’s good. It’s a fuel. Our muscles and brains run on it.
Lactate is the way our body shuttles fuel from one muscle to another through our body.
Second. It doesn’t cause fatigue. It’s good. It’s a fuel. Our muscles and brains run on it.
Lactate is the way our body shuttles fuel from one muscle to another through our body.
Think of lactate as a delivery truck to tissues. It gets dumped into the blood in one area and hopefully taken to another that can use it to fuel things like muscles continuing to contract.
I've already lost $100k on "fundamental" tokens this cycle.
But thanks to memecoins, which brought me over $500k.
Now, a good portfolio is a portfolio with fundamental memes in it.
It was hard, but I've found 7 memes with the best community and the biggest potential 🧵👇
But thanks to memecoins, which brought me over $500k.
Now, a good portfolio is a portfolio with fundamental memes in it.
It was hard, but I've found 7 memes with the best community and the biggest potential 🧵👇
Don't forget to like & retweet the tweet above if you enjoy the research I make. 
Now the crypto market is highly volatile and we see a big downtrend.
But the only thing that still brings millions to people is SOL memecoins.
A lot of people think that money is made by a single successful trade.
But the only thing that still brings millions to people is SOL memecoins.
A lot of people think that money is made by a single successful trade.
The range of people who are genetically XY include those who are born with an external female genital appearance and never, even at puberty, are exposed to male levels of androgen as they are either unable to respond to or synthesise potent androgens. There are no issues/
Of unfairness or XS risk in such people being allowed to participate in competitive, even combative, female sports. This is not the case with 5 alpha reductase deficiency where pubertal development of skeleton and musculature occurs in response to testosterone levels 10 to 20/
/times higher than normally seen in females. This is the condition that affected all three 800 metre women’s medalists in the 2016 Olympics. Which is why the Word Athletics Foundation made its relevant ruling. Given the additional risks involved in boxing it is unfortunate/
An insane amount of the modern progressive agenda involves gaslighting you about basic, provable things.
That man in a wig? It's a woman and you have to pretend it is.
Inflation? It's caused by, um, greed.
That thing we admitted happened in 2021? It now never happened.
That man in a wig? It's a woman and you have to pretend it is.
Inflation? It's caused by, um, greed.
That thing we admitted happened in 2021? It now never happened.
The Marxist head of Venezuela? He's right-wing.
The border crisis we said we don't have the power to fix? We're fixing it now, you're welcome.
The student loans we said we didn't have the power to forgive? Of course we have the power to forgive them, we always have.
The border crisis we said we don't have the power to fix? We're fixing it now, you're welcome.
The student loans we said we didn't have the power to forgive? Of course we have the power to forgive them, we always have.
The debate Trump agreed to with Biden and we extensively reported he agreed to with Biden? He actually agreed to debate Kamala and now he's running away.
For decades, conservative evangelical power brokers defined "truth" in terms of what advanced their idea of Truth--which neatly aligned w/ their own agenda.
They founded institutions, organizations, publishers, & media platforms to advance, defend, and perpetuate this Truth. 🧵
They founded institutions, organizations, publishers, & media platforms to advance, defend, and perpetuate this Truth. 🧵
They platformed writers who amplified pre-determined narratives. They shunned, de-platformed, and cast out those who questioned these Truths. They educated kids to debate, feeding them pre-established talking points. They replaced disciplinary expertise w/ in-house apologetics.
They denounced "postmodernism," "situational ethics," & relativism of all types while advancing "presuppositionalism" & its derivatives & contrasting the "Christian worldview" w/ "secular" error. Since all Truth was God's Truth, only Chrs* had access to that Truth. To all Truth.
Water & disease, disease & water, they are the alpha and omega of warfare in Crimea.
The Russian bill for destroying the Nova Kakhovka dam has come due.🧵
From the link:
"Earlier, media reports said since mid-June, a cholera epidemic...
1/
ukrinform.net/rubric-society…
The Russian bill for destroying the Nova Kakhovka dam has come due.🧵
From the link:
"Earlier, media reports said since mid-June, a cholera epidemic...
1/
ukrinform.net/rubric-society…
...has been in place in Crimea, something the occupation authorities have been concealing. It was noted that the healthcare watchdog received a collective letter of complaint from medics in one of the Simferopol hospitals. ...
2/
2/
...They demand proper supplies of PPE and medicines for hospital staff amid the "epidemic spread of cholera since June 2024".
Water is heavy and 2 liters of clean water a day is the minimum needed for survival.
Soldiers fighting need more.
3/
Water is heavy and 2 liters of clean water a day is the minimum needed for survival.
Soldiers fighting need more.
3/
Nearly 2,900 Hawaii public school students will not receive bus transportation when classes begin for the new school year on Monday because, instead of taxing the rich to fund our basic needs, our elected state leaders decided to pass a massive tax cut mainly for the rich: HB2404
In the midst of the Great Recession, Hawaii’s then-Republican governor, Linda Lingle, cut a wide range of educational and health and human services programs as reactive austerity. We are STILL feeling the effects of those cuts today, as 3 successive Democratic administrations…
Have failed to adequately re-fund those services. This is especially true of mental health, but also services like the school bus services. Lingle privatized our school bus services, and neither Abercrombie, nor Ige, nor (so far) Green have undone that neoliberal fuckery…
Kyiver Rus: Part 3
"For at this time the Russes were ignorant pagans. The devil rejoiced thereat, for he did not know that his ruin was approaching." - Povest vremenykh let, 83
- Excursus: written medieval sources
- Kyiv: The baptism of Voldomir/Valdemar
"For at this time the Russes were ignorant pagans. The devil rejoiced thereat, for he did not know that his ruin was approaching." - Povest vremenykh let, 83
- Excursus: written medieval sources
- Kyiv: The baptism of Voldomir/Valdemar
In the last thread I briefly talked about medieval sources and the problems that arise in dealing with them. Here are a few additions: 2/
In addition to the use of historical topoi, merciless copying of ancient sources, errors and falsifications by copyists, (many) medieval sources are one thing above all: tendentious. 3/
If anyone doubts the fate of those about to be arrested, I represented clients during the 2011 London riots. The CJS was brutal. Bail refused prior to court. People remanded in custody however minor their involvement pending trial at the Crown Court for heavier sentencing. 1/
The police told me no one was getting bail that night. I asked the duty inspector how was it that between leaving my car and arriving at the custody the presumption of bail under the bail act had been suspended? Not true I was told but no one got bail that night. All RIC 2/
In the riot courts, there was a judicial bloodbath the next day. Duty solicitors overwhelmed huge delays and ultimately bail refused whilst many were sent to the Crown Court. And who was in charge of the CPS? Keir Starmer. Expect more of the same over the next few days. 3/
