Good morning. We’re covering the Democrats’ indecision on President Biden — as well as Israel, Beryl and a slap fighting league.
The status quoDemocratic politicians seemed to be falling in line behind President Biden yesterday even as more polling showed his campaign to be in trouble. In today’s newsletter, we’ll explain the latest developments and polling. We will also give you a selection of commentary — both pro-Biden and anti-Biden — that we found helpful. The view on the Hill
If Democrats are going to persuade Biden to quit the race, it will probably require a concerted effort from the party’s congressional leaders. And many of those leaders remain skeptical of Biden’s ability to win in November, given voters’ deep concerns about his age. “Behind closed doors, there was a consensus forming among the members in the toughest House seats that Democrats would have a much better shot of winning the majority with Vice President Kamala Harris at the top of the ticket,” our colleague Annie Karni reported from Capitol Hill. Representative Mikie Sherrill of New Jersey yesterday became the seventh House Democrat to call on Biden to withdraw. “The stakes are too high — and the threat is too real — to stay silent,” she said. Senator Michael Bennet of Colorado said that Biden was on a path to losing in a landslide. Yet after lunchtime meetings to discuss the situation, Democratic leaders seemed unable to agree about how to proceed. They are nervous about sticking with Biden — and nervous about the chaos and uncertainty of choosing another nominee. “There is no consensus on what to do,” Carl Hulse, The Times’s chief Washington correspondent, told us. For now, most Democrats have chosen to defer to Biden, and he has made clear that he wants to run for another term. Dozens of Congress members have publicly backed him this week. Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries — the Democratic leaders in the Senate and the House — continue to support him. “I’m with Joe,” Schumer repeatedly said yesterday. Still, Carl said that Biden’s support remained fragile. Further signs of aging — like those he showed in the debate two weeks ago — could unravel that support quickly. The public’s viewThe polls suggests that Democrats are right to be nervous. It might seem early in the presidential campaign, with Election Day four months away. But polling by July of a presidential election year usually predicts the winner. Biden led Donald Trump four years ago. Hillary Clinton led Trump eight years ago (and she won the popular vote). Barack Obama led the July polls in both 2008 and 2012. Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan both led in the summers of their re-election campaigns, and both won. There are examples of candidates who have overcome weak summer polling numbers, including George W. Bush in 2004. But Biden today looks to be in a worse position than any recent come-from-behind winner. “There are no precedents in recent memory for presidents to have approval ratings like Biden’s who then go on to win re-election,” Nate Cohn, The Times’s chief political analyst, said in a recent interview with The New Yorker. Consider the following:
Commentary
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Other Big Stories
Opinions American support and the threat from Russia have made NATO stronger, Jake Sullivan, the U.S. national security adviser, writes. Many Gen Z Iranians already see the Islamic Republic as irredeemable. The election of a moderate president is unlikely to satisfy them, Holly Dagres writes. Here are columns by Thomas Friedman on Trump and Biden and Thomas Edsall on the Supreme Court and the election.
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Dana White, the president of U.F.C., is betting on a new venture: a slap fighting league called Power Slap. White has helped to establish rules and protocols, but the Brain Injury Association of America has called for the competition to be banned. “There will be deaths from this,” one doctor said. More on culture
Serve slow-cooker BBQ chicken between buns, with pickles and slaw. Stock your freezer for summer with the best ice cream sandwiches. Buy a snorkel set for your trip.
Here is today’s Spelling Bee. Yesterday’s pangram was bronzing. And here are today’s Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku, Connections and Strands. Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. —David and Ian P.S. Does America’s largest health care company control your doctor’s office? The Times wants to hear from patients and providers about medical practices affiliated with Optum, part of UnitedHealth Group. Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. Reach our team at themorning@nytimes.com.
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