2024 Las Vegas Raiders Fantasy Preview

2023 Stats

Points per game: 19.5 (23rd)
Total yards per game: 289.5 (27th)
Plays per game: 59.4 (30th)
Pass Attempts + Sacks per game: 35.1 (23rd)
Dropback EPA per play: -0.05 (23rd)
Rush attempts per game: 24.3 (27th)
Rush EPA per play: -0.15 (23rd)

Coaching Staff

The Raiders and several players on their roster got their wish when the team removed the "interim" tag from Antonio Pierce and named him their head coach for the 2024 season. For those who forget, star pass rusher Maxx Crosby threatened to request a trade if the team didn't bring back Pierce, proving the former linebacker's impact on the locker room during his nine-game stretch as head coach.

Under the leadership of former head coach Josh McDaniels, the Raiders struggled, going 3-5 and averaging a mere 15.8 points per game, ranking 26th in EPA/play (-0.086). However, the team's performance took a significant turn for the better under Pierce. They immediately scored 30 points in their first game under him and averaged 22.9 points per game for the rest of the season, with rookie fourth-rounder Aidan O'Connell starting all nine of those games.

The Raiders excelled under Pierce on the defensive front, ranking second in EPA/play (-0.141) while allowing 16.0 PPG. To put this into perspective, the Ravens' defense, which was the best in the league, allowed 16.5 PPG in 2023. However, it should be noted that this inspired version of Raiders football was also aided by them facing a quarterback group that included Tommy DeVito, Zach Wilson, Nick Mullens, Easton Stick, and Jarrett Stidham.

Pierce's Raiders put forth an inspiring effort during the second half of last season, but will it be enough to translate to real/fantasy success in 2024?

Passing Game

QB: Aidan O'Connell, Gardner Minshew
WR: Davante Adams, Michael Gallup
WR: Jakobi Meyers, Jalen Guyton
WR: Tre Tucker, DJ Turner
TE: Brock Bowers, Michael Mayer

The legendary John Madden, who coached the Raiders from 1969 to 1978, once said, "If you have two quarterbacks, you actually have none." Ironically, this quote perfectly sums up the Raiders' quarterback situation heading into this season.

As previously mentioned, Aidan O'Connell led the team to a 5-4 record in nine starts under Pierce and threw for 2,218-12-7 in his rookie campaign. The former Purdue Boilermaker saw four of those touchdown passes come in a 63-21 drubbing of the Chargers in Week 15. O'Connell did a nice job limiting mistakes while playing turnover-free football in his final four games, but amongst 29 quarterbacks who attempted 300-plus passes, he ranked 25th in completion percent (62.1 percent) and 19th in adjCOMP% (74.0 percent). His 6.5 YPA ranked 22nd. O'Connell averaged 14.5 fantasy points per game during his nine weeks as a starter, turning in just two QB1 finishes. As the incumbent, O'Connell is expected to get the first crack at the starting role in camp. Still, barring a massive second-year leap under new offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, O'Connell's fantasy ceiling is likely that of a mid-QB2. The same can also be said of the man challenging him for the starting job.

Gardner Minshew joined the Colts as a backup in 2023 after spending the previous two seasons with Eagles offensive coordinator turned Colts head coach Shane Steichen. Minshew's familiarity with the system proved more valuable than expected, as the veteran signal-caller wound up starting a career-high 13 games while throwing for 3,305-15-9. Minshew had the Colts on the cusp of a playoff berth but moved on from the Colts after one season in hopes of landing a starting gig with the Raiders this season.

Whether or not he opens the season as the starter is to be determined, but Minshew will undoubtedly make starts for the Raiders at some point this season. Minshew's fantasy ceiling is similar to that of O'Connell. He's averaged just 16.5 fantasy points per game in his career while finishing as a top-12 QB in 31 percent of his games. Neither O'Connell nor Minshew instills much confidence in traditional 1QB leagues, but both could have some viability in superflex leagues in the weeks where they start.

Davante Adams remains the alpha receiver in Vegas. In his second season with the Silver and Black, Adams totaled 103 receptions for 1,144 yards and eight touchdowns while averaging 11.1 YPR. Adams' YPR and his 3.3 YAC/REC were his lowest marks since 2015, while his 1.97 YPRR was his lowest since 2017. Adams saw a down year in 2023 by several metrics. His WR17 in fantasy points per game was his lowest finish since 2016 and his first time outside the top 15 since 2015. While he still demands targets, Adams will be 31 to start the year and is staring down the barrel of a season that may feature the worst quarterback play of his career. Another mid-to-high-end WR2 finish feels more probable than the elite seasons we've grown accustomed to over the years.

In his first season with the Raiders, Jakobi Meyers played a career-low 28 percent of his snaps from the slot while turning in a 71-807-8 campaign opposite Adams. After playing 64.8 percent of his snaps from the slot during his time with the Patriots, Meyers excelled in his first year playing on the outside. Per ESPN Analytics, Meyers played like one of the league's top receivers in several facets, as shown below.

Like Adams, Meyers' upside will likely be capped by his quarterback play. While his eight receiving touchdowns tied for fifth-most amongst receivers, he found the end zone three times from Weeks 9-18 and was targeted just 10 times in the red zone over that span. Overall, Meyers ranked 30th in expected fantasy points and was the WR25 in fantasy points per game. He finished as a top-24 PPR receiver in 56.3 percent of his games but saw that production drop with O'Connell under center. Meyers likely profiles more as a fringe WR3/WR4 whose spike weeks could prove hard to predict in traditional start/sit leagues.

Rookie tight end Brock Bowers enters the season with lofty expectations. The former Georgia Bulldog was selected No. 13 overall by the team in this year's draft, immediately squashing any fantasy value second-year tight end Michael Mayer managers were hoping for. Bowers had the looks of a top tight end after his true freshman season, in which he caught 56 passes for 882 yards and 13 touchdowns. Bowers posted a career receiving line of 175-2,538-26 over three collegiate seasons, was a First-team All-American in 2022, and is the only tight end to earn two Mackey Awards, which is given annually to college football's most outstanding tight end.

Bowers played 52.2 percent of his snaps from the slot in college and has a chance to fill a big slot role for the Raiders this season. Unsurprisingly, tight ends playing in the slot can bode nicely for fantasy. Last season, 12 tight ends played 50 percent or more snaps from the slot. Four of that group finished as TE1s in 2023 while averaging 11.9 fantasy points per game. Young tight ends often face a steep learning curve when making the leap from college to the pros, but Bowers' success as a true freshman, coupled with the recent success of Sam LaPorta and Dalton Kincaid, should provide plenty of optimism for managers taking a shot on the rookie this upcoming season.

In addition to the expected core group of playmakers at receiver, the Raiders also signed former Cowboys receiver Michael Gallup. Gallup totaled 34-418-2 last season and had 445 yards or less in his previous three seasons. Gallup was brought in on a one-year deal but isn't expected to serve as anything more than added depth on the outside.

A wild card is second-year receiver Tre Tucker. Tucker totaled 19 catches for 331 yards and two touchdowns last season, with most of his production coming in the final four weeks of the season when he totaled 11-170-2 on 15 targets. Tucker is rumored to have the inside edge as the team’s starting slot receiver, but he's probably no better than fourth in the target pecking order.

Running Game

RB: Zamir White, Alexander Mattison, Ameer Abdullah, Dylan Laube
OL (L-R): Kolton Miller, Dylan Parham, Andre James, Jackson Powers-Johnson, Thayer Munford Jr.

After Josh Jacobs was shut down in Week 15, Zamir White emerged to lead the Raiders backfield for the season's final four games. Over that span, White totaled 84-397-1 on the ground while catching 9-of-13 targets for 60 scoreless yards. The former Georgia product also handled 41 percent of the team's opportunities, which tied for third with Kyren Williams and trailed only Jonathan Taylor and Breece Hall.

In addition to his heavy workload, White also ranked among the most efficient backs in the league, averaging 4.3 YPC while ranking ninth in YCO/ATT (3.21) amongst backs who saw 100 or more carries. While he excelled at creating yards after contact, White ranked outside the top 30 in missed tackles forced rate (14.4 percent) and was 29th in PFF's Elusiveness Rating (48.6).

White isn't expected to provide much in the passing game, which will limit his fantasy upside, but if the workload he saw over the season's final month remains, he has a path to finish as a top-24 fantasy back this season. That said, fantasy managers banking on a player with limited production over two years, who is likely playing in a bottom 10 offense, shouldn't be surprised if White doesn't hit the lofty expectations some have placed on him.

Backing up White is former Viking Alexander Mattison. Mattison finally had his chance to lead a backfield in 2023 and rushed for 700 scoreless yards on 180 carries (3.9 YPC) while catching 30 passes for 192 yards and three scores. Amongst 35 running backs who saw 150-plus carries, Mattison ranked:

• 30th in PFF rush grade — 70.2

• 24th in YCO/ATT — 2.76

• 20th in breakaway rush rate — 3.9 percent

• 14th in MTF rate — 20.6 percent

Mattison earned just nine carries inside the five-yard line over 16 games and was eventually replaced by Ty Chandler in Minnesota's backfield. Mattison is a serviceable backup who spent four seasons backing up Dalvin Cook. Once perceived as a high-value handcuff, Mattison averaged 20.4 PPR points per game in the six games Cook missed over that span. Unfortunately, that small sample size led to Mattison being overvalued last offseason and underwhelming returns for fantasy managers. He's not a priority stash in fantasy leagues like he once was.

The running back to watch in the Raiders' backfield is rookie Dylan Laube. Laube, 24, was drafted in the sixth round after spending six years at the University of New Hampshire, where he amassed 4,346 yards from scrimmage and 42 touchdowns while totaling 155 receptions. Laube impressed at the combine, earning an 8.78 RAS while running a 4.54 40 time. Lauby may already be the best pass-catching back on the Raiders' roster, but he's at risk of seeing limited playing time due to his low draft capital and the learning curve that comes with making the leap from FCS New Hampshire to the NFL. He's a player worth monitoring once the pads come on and training camp starts.

Win Total

The Raiders lack a franchise quarterback in a division that requires them to face Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert four times a year. It's an immediate tough hurdle to overcome when projecting any team's win total. In addition to being down at quarterback, the Raiders have the ninth-toughest schedule per Sharp Football Analysis, which is based on their opponent's combined projected win total for the season. Currently sitting on an over/under of 6.5 wins on the DraftKings Sportsbook, a bet on the over is likely driven by confidence in the defense and continued inspired player under Antonio Pierce in his first full season.

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