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. 2021 May 18;55(10):6957-6964.
doi: 10.1021/acs.est.1c00024. Epub 2021 Apr 30.

Compound Climate and Infrastructure Events: How Electrical Grid Failure Alters Heat Wave Risk

Brian Stone Jr  1 , Evan Mallen  1 , Mayuri Rajput  2 , Carina J Gronlund  3 , Ashley M Broadbent  4 , E Scott Krayenhoff  5 , Godfried Augenbroe  2 , Marie S O'Neill  3 , Matei Georgescu  4
Affiliations

Compound Climate and Infrastructure Events: How Electrical Grid Failure Alters Heat Wave Risk

Brian Stone Jr et al. Environ Sci Technol. .

Abstract

The potential for critical infrastructure failures during extreme weather events is rising. Major electrical grid failure or "blackout" events in the United States, those with a duration of at least 1 h and impacting 50,000 or more utility customers, increased by more than 60% over the most recent 5 year reporting period. When such blackout events coincide in time with heat wave conditions, population exposures to extreme heat both outside and within buildings can reach dangerously high levels as mechanical air conditioning systems become inoperable. Here, we combine the Weather Research and Forecasting regional climate model with an advanced building energy model to simulate building-interior temperatures in response to concurrent heat wave and blackout conditions for more than 2.8 million residents across Atlanta, Georgia; Detroit, Michigan; and Phoenix, Arizona. Study results find simulated compound heat wave and grid failure events of recent intensity and duration to expose between 68 and 100% of the urban population to an elevated risk of heat exhaustion and/or heat stroke.

Keywords: air conditioning systems; blackout events; building energy model; compound climate event; heat wave.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no competing financial interest.

Figures

Figure 1.
Figure 1.
Total number of major electrical grid failure events and average event duration (hours) for U.S. power utilities (2015–2019).
Figure 2.
Figure 2.
U.S. National Weather Service heat index classification framework.
Figure 3.
Figure 3.
Example building-interior heat index classes for 5-day average maximum heat index values under historic heat wave conditions and in response to normal electrical grid operation (power on) and electrical grid failure scenarios (power off). Heat index classes as follows: No Risk (blue), Caution (yellow), Extreme Caution (orange), Danger (red).
Figure 4.
Figure 4.
Boxplots for 5-day average maximum building-interior heat index values (°C) during a concurrent heat wave and electrical grid failure event. Mean values denoted with “X” and outliers included.
Figure 5.
Figure 5.
Differences in average 5-day maximum building-interior heat index values (°C) between the top and bottom quintiles of ambient heat index values for all structure types (“UHI penalty”) and between the one-story, single-family and apartment structure types citywide (“housing penalty”).
Figure 6.
Figure 6.
Percent (%) of residential structures categorized by heat index class during a simulated historical heat wave event (left panel) and a simulated concurrent heat wave and electrical grid failure event (right panel).
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