Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House, 2024

2024年7月 · Rowman & Littlefield

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關於本電子書

In the days after Donald Trump’s unexpected victory on election night 2016, The New York Times, CNN, and other leading media outlets reached out to one of the few pundits who had correctly predicted the outcome, Allan J. Lichtman. While many election forecasters base their findings exclusively on public opinion polls, Lichtman looks at the underlying fundamentals that have driven every presidential election since 1860. Using his 13 historical factors or “keys” (four political, seven performance, and two personality), Lichtman had been predicting Trump’s win since September 2016. In the updated 2024 edition, he applies the keys to every presidential election since 1860 and shows readers the current state of the 2024 race. In doing so, he dispels much of the mystery behind electoral politics and challenges many traditional assumptions. An indispensable resource for political junkies!

關於作者

Allan J. Lichtman is Distinguished Professor of History at American University. He has provided commentary to major media outlets worldwide and written thirteen books, including White Protestant Nation: The Rise of the American Conservative Movement, The Embattled Vote in America: From the Founding to the Present, and 13 Cracks: Repairing American Democracy After Trump.