The Money Illusion

A slightly off-center perspective on monetary problems.

 

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What should the Fed do?
2024-08-05 19:50 UTC by ssumner

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What should the Fed do?

NGDP level targeting

But what should the Fed do right now?

NGDP level targeting

OK, but they won’t. So what should the Fed do to interest rates right now?

Set the target rate consistent with 4% NGDP growth

But what is the target rate consistent with 4% NGDP growth?

...

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The Second Sex
2024-08-05 00:04 UTC by ssumner

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I don’t follow Democratic politics closely, but those who do suggest that Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer would have been a strong possibility to be the nominee if there were an open primary. She’s a popular governor in a part of the country that will determine the election.

[Conditional...

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Reasoning from an interest rate change
2024-08-02 19:49 UTC by ssumner

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I just saw Richard Clarida on CNBC, saying something to the effect that “The bond market is doing the Fed’s job for it”.

No, no, a thousand times no!!! Interest rates are not monetary policy. Interest rates plunged in 2008, but the bond market wasn’t doing the Fed’s job for it....

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Second derivative blues
2024-08-02 15:18 UTC by ssumner

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Payroll employment rises by 114,000 and unemployment is only 4.3%. Wages are up 3.6% over the past 12 months. Those are really good numbers!

Unfortunately, it’s often the second derivative that tells the real story. There are strong signs that the economy is slowing rapidly. That doesn’t...

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Provoked by a provocative piece
2024-08-01 19:35 UTC by ssumner

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It seems to me that the term ‘provoked’ has a sort of negative connotation. Don’t poke the bear, you’ll only provoke him. On the other hand, ‘provocative’ can have a positive connotation. He expressed some provocative ideas, meaning interesting ideas. But doesn’t...

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Never reason from a quantity
2024-08-01 01:11 UTC by ssumner

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I see lots of commenters making an EC101 error. They notice that Canadians are much more likely to live in high rises, and assume that this reflects a difference in preferences. It’s certainly possible that preferences differ in one country from another, but to demonstrate that to be true you’d first...

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The odd distribution of high rise construction
2024-07-31 01:28 UTC by ssumner

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This tweet caught my eye:

The tweet included this graph (click link for closer view):

In the unlikely event that my math is accurate, I counted 624 high-rises under construction in Canada and 796 in America. But the US has more than 8 times the population of Canada. In addition, we are more densely populated,...

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Not impressed
2024-07-27 16:58 UTC by ssumner

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Tyler Cowen linked to an interesting set of tweets:

Neither observation impresses me. The fast growth over the past 51 months comes from a rebound from Covid (plus strong immigration.) The expansion after March 2009 was way too slow, featuring very high unemployment for a number of years.

I am impressed by the...

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Creep
2024-07-27 16:58 UTC by ssumner

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Matt Yglesias directed me to this audio:

Obsession with George Soros? Check

Obsession with black women getting abortions? Check

Unease with women being free to travel to other states? Check

All in 48 seconds, three seconds longer than the shower scene in Psycho.

Yes, you could probably find just as many...

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Facing or creating?
2024-07-26 04:06 UTC by ssumner

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During the 2010s, Jim Bullard was probably my favorite Federal Reserve bank president. David Beckworth has an interview with Bullard, in which he makes a number of insightful observations. As usual, I’ll focus on an area where I seem to spot a difference of opinion:

Bullard: So, the mentality at the...

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