Voters went to the polls in Britain on Thursday in a dyspeptic mood, many of them frustrated with the Conservative government and skeptical that any replacement can unravel the tangle of problems hobbling the country.

週四，英國選民懷著悲觀的情緒前往投票站，許多人對保守黨政府感到失望，並懷疑任何替代者都無法解決困擾國家的一系列問題。

Their skepticism is warranted, according to analysts. Even if the Labour Party wins a robust majority in Parliament, as polls suggest, it will confront a raft of challenges, from a torpid economy to a corroded National Health Service, without having many tools to fix them.

分析人士認為，他們的這種疑慮不無道理。即便工黨如民意調查顯示的那樣贏得議會的絕對多數席位，它也將面臨著從經濟低迷到國民健康服務體系退化的一系列挑戰，而且沒有太多手段來解決這些問題。

The Labour leader, Keir Starmer, would inherit a “legacy of ashes,” said Robert Ford, a professor of political science at the University of Manchester. And voters, who less than five years ago elected the Conservatives in a landslide, are not likely to give Mr. Starmer much slack to turn things around.

曼徹斯特大學政治學教授羅伯特·福特表示，工黨領袖基爾·斯塔默將繼承是一堆「灰燼」。不到五年前，選民以壓倒性優勢選舉出了保守黨，他們不太可能給斯塔默太多機會來扭轉局面。

“The message could not be clearer: You must deliver change — or you are toast,” Mr. Ford said. “People will not be patient.”

「信息再清楚不過了：你必須能帶來改變——否則你就完蛋了，」福特說。「人們不會有耐心的。」

The election is shaping up as a political watershed for the country. It is likely to represent the repudiation of the Conservative Party after 14 years in power, and the elevation of the Labour Party, which less than five years ago suffered its own electoral defeat, the worst since 1935, at the hands of the Conservatives.

這次選舉將成為英國政治的分水嶺。它很可能代表著保守黨在執政14年後的衰落及工黨的崛起。就在不到五年前，工黨在保守黨手中遭遇了自1935年以來最慘痛的選舉失利。

That dizzying reversal of political fortunes speaks to the turmoil that has engulfed Britain since it voted to leave the European Union in 2016. Brexit fractured the Conservative Party, leaving it increasingly erratic and extreme, as it confronted the challenges of the coronavirus pandemic and a cost-of-living crisis.

這種令人眼花撩亂的政治命運的逆轉表明，自2016年投票退出歐盟以來，英國一直處於動盪之中。英國脫歐使保守黨分裂，使其在面對新冠大流行和生活成本危機的挑戰時變得越來越不穩定和極端。

With Labour on the threshold of power, it faces hard trade-offs that reflect the fallout from those years: a country depleted, exhausted and desperate for change.

即將執政之際，工黨面臨著艱難的權衡，反映了那些年帶來的影響和後果：一個資源枯竭、精疲力竭、迫切需要改變的國家。

Labour’s central sales pitch is that it can turbocharge the economy and generate enough extra revenue from taxes to avoid deep cuts in public services, tax increases, or greater borrowing. But its levers for doing so are limited, particularly after its ambitious multi-billion-pound plan to transform Britain into a “green economy” fell victim earlier this year to the government’s weak financial position.

工黨的核心賣點是，它可以大力推動經濟發展，並從稅收中獲得足夠的額外收入，以避免對公共服務進行大幅削減、增加稅收或增加借貸。但工黨這樣做的手段有限，特別是在其雄心勃勃的「綠色經濟」轉型計劃今年早些時候因政府疲弱的財政狀況而擱淺後。

Another option would be to ease restrictions on trade with the European Union, which have hampered British exporters since Brexit. Yet Mr. Starmer has ruled out rejoining the bloc’s vast single economic market, since that would mean allowing people from Europe the freedom to live and work in Britain, or its Customs Union, which would mean accepting some of the bloc’s rules on tariffs and duties.

另一個選擇是放鬆與歐盟的貿易限制，自英國脫歐以來，這些限制一直阻礙著英國出口商的發展。然而，斯塔默已經排除了重新加入歐盟龐大的單一經濟市場的可能性，因為這意味著允許歐洲人自由地在英國或關稅同盟生活和工作，並接受歐盟的一些關稅規定。

While analysts said it should be possible for a Labour government to strike more limited deals, like a new trade pact on animal and plants that would help British food exporters, these would provide only a small boost to the economy.

儘管分析人士表示，工黨政府應該有可能達成更有限的協議，比如一項有助於英國食品出口商的動植物貿易新協定，但這些協議對英國經濟的提振作用很小。

That leaves a lot riding on another major Labour goal: overhauling Britain’s planning system to build more houses and speed up construction of public works projects. Labour is expected to review which parts of the countryside remain off limits to developers and restore targets for residential building in urban areas.

這將為工黨的另一個主要目標留下很大餘地——徹底改革英國的規劃體系，建造更多房屋，加快公共工程項目的建設。預計工黨將審查哪些農村地區仍禁止開發商進入，並恢復城市地區住宅建設的目標。

Rewriting the planning rules could unlock a building boom, economists said, but it would upset voters who want to protect green spaces.

經濟學家表示，修改規劃規則可能會引發建築熱潮，但會讓希望保護綠地的選民感到不安。

Budget pressures would also complicate Labour’s efforts to fix the N.H.S., where the government failed to cut waiting times that stretch to months. Labour has promised to schedule 40,000 additional appointments a week, which it claims it can do by persuading N.H.S. workers to take on more appointments during off hours.

預算壓力也會使工黨修復國民醫療服務體系的努力複雜化，因為政府未能縮短長達數月的候診時間。工黨承諾每週增加4萬個預約，並聲稱可以通過說服國民醫療服務體系員工在非工作時間接受更多預約來實現這一目標。

Labour said it would also hire 8,500 health workers to treat patients with mental health issues, as well as doubling the number of C.T. scanners and M.R.I. machines in hospitals. It would finance this by closing a loophole for people who claim non-domiciled status in Britain, allowing them to avoid paying some taxes.

工黨表示，它還將僱用8500名醫療保健從業人員來治療有精神健康問題的患者，並將醫院的CT掃描儀和核磁共振儀的數量增加一倍。它將通過堵住非定居者逃稅漏洞來為此籌集資金。

But its immediate challenge would be to resolve a long-festering wage dispute with junior doctors. After the government rejected their demands for a 35 percent wage increase, the doctors have repeatedly walked off the job, causing a cascade of canceled procedures and prolonging waiting times.

但眼下的挑戰將是解決與初級醫生之間曠日持久的工資糾紛。在政府拒絕他們加薪35%的要求後，醫生們多次罷工，導致大量手術被取消，候診時間延長。

Tackling immigration is another challenge for Labour, not least because of the labor shortages at the N.H.S. and throughout the economy. Controlling Britain’s borders was a big theme of the Brexit referendum, but net legal migration — the number of people who arrived, minus those who left — has roughly tripled since then, hitting ‌almost 750,000 in 2022, before falling back slightly.

解決移民問題是工黨面臨的另一個挑戰，尤其是因為國民醫療服務體系和整個經濟的勞動力短缺。控制英國邊境是英國脫歐公投的一大主題，但自那以來，凈合法移民——入境人數減去離境人數——大約增加了兩倍，在2022年達到近75萬人，之後略有回落。

Labour will benefit from changes introduced by the Conservative government, which restricted the right of students to bring relatives to Britain, and by the reduction in the number of refugees coming from Ukraine, Hong Kong and Afghanistan. All told, net migration is now expected to fall.

工黨將從保守黨政府引入的改革中受益，這些改革限制了學生帶親屬前往英國的權利，並減少了來自烏克蘭、香港和阿富汗的難民人數。總而言之，凈移民預計將會下降。

But against that backdrop, Labour would have to work hard to fulfill its promise to train more people from Britain to fill job openings, and to dissuade employers from looking abroad for workers.

但在這種背景下，工黨將必須努力履行承諾，培訓更多的英國人來填補職位空缺，並勸阻僱主不要尋找境外工人。

Curbing the flow of asylum seekers landing in small boats on the English coastline would be harder still. Mr. Starmer has vowed to scrap a costly policy under which some asylum seekers would be put on one-way flights to Rwanda. Labour would instead try to crack down on people-smuggling gangs, while bolstering cooperation with authorities across continental Europe.

遏制乘坐小船登陸英國海岸線的尋求庇護者的流動將仍然比以往更為困難。斯塔默誓言要廢除一項代價高昂的政策，根據這項政策，一些尋求庇護者將被送上飛往盧安達的單程航班。取而代之的是，工黨將努力打擊人口走私團伙，同時加強與整個歐洲大陸的政府的合作。

Yet Britain has already given tens of millions of pounds to the French to help them stop the small boats, with only partial success. It also remains unclear how much scope there will be for better collaboration, with far-right, anti-immigration parties making striking gains in elections underway in France.

然而，英國已經向法國提供了數千萬英鎊，以幫助他們攔截偷渡小船，但只取得了部分成功。此外，由於極右翼反移民政黨在法國正在進行的選舉中取得了引人注目的進展，雙方還能在多大程度上加強合作仍是個未知數。

At home, Britain faces a backlog of asylum applications, and the cost of housing some of those awaiting decisions, many in hotels, is around 8 million pounds, or $10.2 million, a day. Labour has promised to hire 1,000 new caseworkers to help remove those whose applications fail. But many are from countries that have no agreement with Britain to accept failed asylum seekers.

在國內，英國面臨著庇護申請積壓的問題，其中許多等待裁決的人住在酒店裡，每天為他們支付的住宿費約為800萬英鎊。工黨承諾新聘1000名個案工作者，幫助申請失敗的人離開。但其中許多人的國家沒有與英國簽訂接收申請失敗者的協議。

Any British leader would face an increasingly murky political landscape in the United States. The questions about President Biden’s viability as a candidate in the upcoming election have increased the odds that his Republican opponent, Donald J. Trump, will recapture the presidency.

任何一位英國領導人都將面臨越來越模糊的美國政治格局。拜登總統在即將到來的大選中作為候選人的可行性受到了質疑，這增加了他的共和黨對手川普重新奪回總統寶座的可能性。

Labour’s top foreign policy official, David Lammy, has tried to cultivate people in Mr. Trump’s orbit, including Senator J.D. Vance, Republican of Ohio. But Mr. Lammy’s calling card in the United States is his close relationship with former President Barack Obama. The two men went to Harvard Law School, and Mr. Lammy campaigned for Mr. Obama during his first presidential campaign.

工黨的外交政策高官戴維·拉米曾試圖在川普身邊的圈子裡培養人脈，其中包括俄亥俄州共和黨參議員J·D·萬斯。但拉米在美國政壇的地位是依靠他與前總統歐巴馬的密切關係。兩人是哈佛法學院的同學，在歐巴馬首次競選總統期間，拉米曾為他助力。

Mr. Starmer’s ties to the United States are not as deep. While he does not have a history of critical remarks about Mr. Trump, there is little to suggest that a 61-year-old former chief prosecutor would develop a strong relationship with a 78-year-old man who is a defendant in multiple criminal cases.

斯塔默與美國的關係相較沒有那麼深厚。雖然他過去沒有對川普發表過批評性言論，但沒有什麼跡象表明這位61歲的前首席檢察官會與一位78歲的老人建立牢固的關係，後者是多起刑事案件的被告。

On Wednesday, however, Mr. Starmer won backing from another unlikely source: Rupert Murdoch. His influential London tabloid, The Sun, endorsed Labour for the first time in an election since 2005.

然而，本週三，斯塔默贏得了另一個意想不到的支持：魯珀特·梅鐸。梅鐸旗下頗具影響力的倫敦小報《太陽報》自2005年以來首次在選舉中支持工黨。

“Time for a New Manager,” the Sun said on its front page, playing off the European soccer championship, in which England’s national team has struggled but remains in contention as it enters the quarterfinals.

《太陽報》在頭版寫道：「是時候換個新經理了。」這是一個借用歐洲足球錦標賽的文字遊戲，英格蘭國家隊雖然在比賽中表現不佳，但在進入四分之一決賽後仍有希望。

“By dragging his party back to the center ground of British politics for first time since Tony Blair was in No. 10,” the paper said, “Sir Keir has won the right to take charge.”

「自托尼·布萊爾擔任首相之後，基爾爵士首次將他的政黨拉回了英國政治的中間派立場，」該報寫道。「他贏得了掌權的資格。」