An era has ended in France.

法國的一個時代結束了。

The seven-year domination of national politics by President Emmanuel Macron was laid to rest by his party’s overwhelming defeat in the first round of parliamentary elections on Sunday. Not only did he dissolve Parliament by calling a snap vote, he effectively dissolved the centrist movement known as “Macronism.”

週日，法國總統馬克宏領導的政黨在第一輪議會選舉中遭遇了壓倒性的失敗，他對國家政治中長達七年的統治也隨之告終。他不僅通過臨時投票解散了議會，實際上解散了被稱為「馬克宏主義」的中間派運動。

The far-right National Rally, in winning a third of the vote, did not guarantee that it will win an absolute majority in a runoff six days from now, although it will likely get close. But Mr. Macron, risking all by calling the election, did end up guaranteeing that he will be marginalized, with perhaps no more than a third of the seats his party now holds.

極右翼政黨國民聯盟雖然贏得了三分之一的選票，但並不能保證在六天後的決選中贏得絕對多數，儘管很可能會接近。但馬克宏冒著一切風險宣布舉行大選，最終確實保證了他將被邊緣化，他的政黨目前擁有的席位可能不超過三分之一。

“The decision to dissolve the National Assembly has, in fact, put an end to the political configuration that emerged from the presidential election of 2017,” said Édouard Philippe, one of Mr. Macron’s former prime ministers.

「解散國民議會的決定，實際上終結了2017年總統選舉後出現的政治格局，」曾任馬克宏政府總理的愛德華·菲利普說。

In 2017, Mr. Macron, then 39, swept to power, eviscerating the center-right Gaullists and the center-left socialists, the pillars of postwar France, in the name of a 21st-century realignment around a pragmatic center. It worked for a while, but increasingly, as Mr. Macron failed to form a credible moderate political party, the result has been one man and a shrinking circle of allies standing against the extremes of right and left.

2017年，時年39歲的馬克宏以壓倒性優勢上台，他以21世紀圍繞務實中間派的重組為名，徹底摧毀了戰後法國的支柱——中右翼戴高樂主義者和中左翼社會主義者。這種做法在一段時間內奏效了，但是，由於馬克宏未能組建一個可信的溫和政黨，結果只能是一個人和一個不斷縮小的盟友圈子對抗左右兩派的極端勢力。

That stand, which sometimes served Mr. Macron well, has now collapsed in one of the more conspicuous self-inflicted debacles in recent European politics.

這一立場有時對馬克宏很有好處，但現在已經崩潰，成為近年來歐洲政治中最引人注目的自殘式失敗之一。

Mr. Macron did not have to call an election just weeks before the Paris Olympics, even though the National Rally trounced him in European parliamentary elections. It is a measure of the desperate straits of France today that a meager victory for Mr. Macron would now be defined as keeping the National Rally, led by Marine Le Pen, from an absolute majority in the National Assembly, even if the price of that is ungovernable chaos.

儘管國民聯盟在歐洲議會選舉中擊敗了馬克宏，但在巴黎奧運會開幕前幾週，馬克宏沒有必要舉行大選。讓馬琳·勒龐領導的國民聯盟無法在國民議會獲得絕對多數席位，就可以稱得上是馬克宏的小勝，即使這樣做的代價是無法控制的混亂，這本身也反映了法國今天的絕望處境。

“They’re done,” Luc Rouban, a senior research fellow at Sciences Po University in Paris, said of Mr. Macron’s centrist movement. “I do not see any margin of maneuver for them.”

「他們完蛋了，」巴黎政治學院高級研究員呂克·魯本在談到馬克宏的中間派運動時說。「我看不出他們有任何迴旋餘地。」

France, unlike Italy or Belgium, has no culture of living in limbo without an appointed government for long periods. But that possibility now looms.

與義大利和比利時不同，法國沒有長期處於無指定政府狀態的文化。但這種可能性現在正在逼近。

If the National Rally wins an absolute majority, Mr. Macron will almost certainly have to live with Jordan Bardella, 28, Ms. Le Pen’s protégé, as his prime minister since that party would move to topple anyone else. But Mr. Macron and Mr. Bardella — with opposing viewpoints — would find themselves in an uncomfortable partnership.

如果國民聯盟贏得絕對多數席位，馬克宏幾乎肯定將不得不讓勒龐的門徒、28歲的喬丹·巴德拉擔任總理，因為該黨會採取行動推翻其他任何人。但馬克宏和巴德拉觀點相左，他們的合作關係肯定不會融洽。

If there is no such National Rally majority, Mr. Macron will be faced with a very large far-right group, and a large left and extreme-left alliance in the Assembly, all viscerally opposed to him. It is unclear how he would form a governing coalition. The only possibility might be some form of caretaker government headed by technocrats pending a further dissolution of the Assembly a year from now, when the Constitution would allow it again.

如果國民聯盟沒有這樣的多數席位，馬克宏將面臨一個非常龐大的極右翼團體，以及議會中一個龐大的左翼和極左聯盟，這些人都強烈反對他。目前還不清楚他將如何組建執政聯盟。唯一的可能是成立某種形式的看守政府，由技術官僚領導，等待一年後憲法允許議會再次解散。

The National Rally and its allies qualified for the second round of voting in over 480 districts and were in the lead or directly elected in 297 of those, according to an analysis of the results by Franceinfo. Mr. Macron’s centrist coalition, by contrast, is poised to lose many of the 250 seats it had held since 2022, qualifying for the runoff in 319 districts and leading or being directly elected in just 69 of them. A party needs 289 seats to hold an absolute majority in the Assembly.

Mr. Macron’s Renaissance party urged its candidates to pull out of some constituency races where they finished in third place in the first round. The goal is to avoid splitting the vote and so prevent the far right from winning an absolute majority.

馬克宏的復興黨敦促在該黨第一輪中排名第三的候選人退出選區的競選，目的是避免分裂選票，從而防止極右翼贏得絕對多數。

But, in yet another sign of division, some centrists were reluctant to do so in favor of the left because of what they see as a catastrophic economic program and remarks from Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the far left leader whose passionate support of the Palestinian cause has appeared more than once to cross a line into antisemitism.

但一些中間派人士不願支持左派——這也是當前分裂局面的一個表現，因為他們認為左派的經濟計劃和極左派領導人讓-呂克·梅蘭雄的言論是災難性的，他對巴勒斯坦事業的熱情支持似乎不止一次越過了反猶太主義的底線。

“Nobody chose this dissolution,” Gabriel Attal, the outgoing prime minister who was once a favorite of Mr. Macron, said pointedly on Monday. “But I refuse that we be its victims.”

「沒有人選擇解散，」週一，即將卸任的總理加布裡埃·阿塔爾尖銳地說，他曾是馬克宏的親信。「但我拒絕讓我們成為受害者。」

Mr. Macron, who is term-limited and must leave office in 2027, will remain as president and, if Mr. Bardella becomes prime minister, will no doubt portray himself as the surviving rampart against a far-right that sees immigrants as second-class.

馬克宏有任期限制，必須在2027年卸任，他將繼續擔任總統，如果巴爾德拉成為總理，馬克宏無疑會把自己描繪成倖存下來，對抗將視移民為二等公民的極右翼的堡壘。

But his authority on domestic policy will be limited and his voice on the international stage, traditionally the exclusive domain of French presidents, will be diminished, particularly with respect to the European Union, where the euro-skeptic National Rally will do what it can to return power from Brussels to the nation. Mr. Macron has been a fierce advocate of what he calls “Europe power.”

但他在國內政策方面的權威將受到限制，他在國際舞台上的話語權——傳統上，這是法國總統的專屬領域——將被削弱，尤其是在歐盟問題上，對歐元持懷疑態度的國民聯盟將盡其所能，讓權力從布魯塞爾回歸法國。馬克宏一直是他所稱的「歐洲力量」的熱情倡導者。

It was striking that both Ms. Le Pen and Mr. Bardella chose to make their victory speeches Sunday against the backdrop of the French flag, without the blue and gold European Union flag that hangs from every city hall and government office in France, including the Hôtel de Matignon, residence of the prime minister, and the president’s Élysée Palace. The message that international priorities are shifting was unmistakable.

引人矚目的是，勒龐和巴爾德拉週日都選擇以法國國旗為背景下發表勝利演講，而不是懸掛在法國每個市政廳和政府辦公室（包括總理官邸馬提翁府和總統府愛麗舍宮）的藍金色歐盟旗幟。國際重點正在轉移的信息是明確無誤的。

So why did Mr. Macron call for the election?

那麼，馬克宏為什麼要求舉行選舉呢？

It seems clear that he miscalculated, particularly with respect to the left, which he thought would splinter between moderate socialists and Mr. Mélenchon’s France Unbowed, increasing the chances that his own party would qualify for the second round. That fracture never happened. Rather, the New Popular Front coalition of those left-wing parties won 27.99 percent of the vote to Mr. Macron’s 20.04 percent and secured a place in many more runoffs.

很明顯，他打錯了算盤，尤其是在左翼方面，他認為左翼會分裂成溫和的社會主義者和梅蘭雄領導的不屈法國兩派，從而增加他自己的政党進入第二輪的機會。這一分裂並未發生。相反，由這些左翼政黨組成的新人民陣線聯盟贏得了27.99%的選票，而馬克宏的政黨只獲得了20.04%的選票，並得到在更多的決選中的一席之地。

A second miscalculation was that Mr. Macron believed he could still be a unifying figure when animosity toward him has grown steadily over his seven-year presidency. He wanted to embody the Republic and its values against the extremes. Too few voters were ready to buy that.

第二個誤判是，馬克宏認為，雖然在七年總統任期中，對他的敵意一直在穩步增長，但他仍然可以成為一個團結各方的人物。他希望體現共和國及其價值觀，反對極端主義。然而沒有多少選民願意相信這一點。

They appear, instead, to have felt alienated by his perceived aloofness and highly personalized rule, typified by the shock decision to call the election. The longtime taboo against the National Rally no longer counted.

相反，他們似乎覺得他明顯的冷漠和高度個性化的統治與大眾脫節，典型的例子是他宣布進行選舉這一令人震驚的決定。長期以來反對國民聯盟的禁忌不再起作用。

“This was a personal rejection,” said Jacques Rupnik, a political scientist. “People no longer want Macron bringing them together.”

「這是對他個人的否決，」政治學家雅克·魯普尼說。「人們不再希望馬克宏把他們團結在一起。」

If true, as it appears to be, that would constitute a heavy blow to Mr. Macron. A highly intelligent man, with a ready wink and charm, he has always seen himself as able to persuade anyone, from President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia to former U.S. President Donald J. Trump, to agree with him. It did not always work, but his bold determination to break political barriers never abated.

如果真是這樣，對馬克宏來說將是一次沉重打擊。他是一個非常聰明的人，領悟力強，魅力十足，他一直認為自己能夠說服任何人，讓他們同意自己的觀點，從俄羅斯總統普丁到美國前總統川普。這並不總能奏效，但他打破政治障礙的大膽決心從未減弱。

He talked to Mr. Putin for months after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine in 2022, when almost nobody else in the West would. This year, he would not rule out putting western troops on the ground in Ukraine, when almost everyone, led by President Biden, refused the idea. He declared that Europe faced “death” if it did not begin to emancipate itself from the United States, when plenty of other European states thought putting distance between the allies would be the death knell. Finally, advised by a tiny coterie, he called this election to the astonishment of many of his own ministers, who saw in it an almost suicidal move.

在2022年烏克蘭戰爭爆發後，他與普丁交談數月，當時西方几乎沒有人願意這樣做。今年，他不排除向烏克蘭派遣西方地面部隊的可能性，當時以拜登總統為首的幾乎所有人都否定這樣的想法。他宣稱，如果歐洲不開始從美國手中解放，將面臨「死亡」，而當時許多其他歐洲國家認為，與盟國保持距離將會敲響喪鐘。最後，在一小群人的建議下，他宣布了這次選舉，令他自己的許多部長感到驚訝，他們認為這幾乎是自殺之舉。

“The Macron thinking went that the house will burn down in three years,” said Nicole Bacharan, an author and political scientist, referring to the possibility that Ms. Le Pen would be elected in the 2027 presidential election. “So let’s burn it down now. Then we will see.”

「馬克宏的想法是，房子將在三年內燒毀，」作家、政治學家妮可·巴卡蘭說，她指的是勒龐在2027年總統大選中當選的可能性。「那我們現在就把它燒掉吧。然後我們再看看會怎樣。」

France is a country of strong institutions and deep democratic traditions underwritten by the rule of law. It does not, and will not, burn easily. As a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, and a nuclear power, it commands an important place in international affairs that will persist, even if its domestic travails impinge to some degree on that.

法國是一個擁有強大制度和深厚民主傳統的法治國家。它不願也不會隨隨便便就亂作一團。作為聯合國安理會常任理事國和核大國，法國在國際事務中擁有重要的地位，儘管其國內的困境會產生某種程度上的影響，但地位不會變。

Its economy, in part because of Mr. Macron’s policies, has drawn enormous foreign investment in recent years, and unemployment has decreased. Even if the national debt and the budget deficit have risen to levels that have alarmed both the European Commission and ratings agencies, its economic vitality seems greater than a troubled Germany’s. Nobody driving through France sees a country on the brink.

近年來，部分由於馬克宏的政策，法國經濟吸引了大量外國投資，失業率也有所下降。即使國家債務和預算赤字上升到令歐盟委員會和評級機構感到震驚的水平，它的經濟活力似乎比陷入困境的德國更大。開車穿過法國時，不會有人感覺這個國家處於崩潰邊緣。

Yet Mr. Macron has ushered France to a dangerous watershed. There was a reason a political barrier was long erected against the National Rally, with its quasi fascist history (now disavowed) and its enduring belief that immigrants dilute the essence of the French nation. The party provokes extreme reactions and troubled memories of the collaborationist wartime Vichy government.

然而，馬克宏把法國帶到了一個危險的分水嶺。長期以來，人們對國民聯盟設置政治障礙是有原因的，因為它有準法西斯的歷史（現已被否認），而且一直認為移民稀釋了法國民族的本質。該黨激起了極端的反應，喚起了人們對戰時通敵的維希政府的不安記憶。

Many members of France’s large Muslim minority, estimated at some five million people, are fearful of rule by the National Rally. In general, a feeling of profound uncertainty has settled over France.

法國的穆斯林少數民族人口眾多（估計約有500萬人），他們中的許多人都擔心國民聯盟的統治。總的來說，一種深刻的不確定感籠罩著法國。

“Burning a house is dangerous,” Ms. Bacharan said, “and Mr. Macron should have known that.”

「燒毀一座房子是很危險的，」巴卡蘭說，「馬克宏本應知道這一點。」