An era has ended in France.

法国的一个时代结束了。

The seven-year domination of national politics by President Emmanuel Macron was laid to rest by his party’s overwhelming defeat in the first round of parliamentary elections on Sunday. Not only did he dissolve Parliament by calling a snap vote, he effectively dissolved the centrist movement known as “Macronism.”

周日，法国总统马克龙领导的政党在第一轮议会选举中遭遇了压倒性的失败，他对国家政治中长达七年的统治也随之告终。他不仅通过临时投票解散了议会，实际上解散了被称为“马克龙主义”的中间派运动。

The far-right National Rally, in winning a third of the vote, did not guarantee that it will win an absolute majority in a runoff six days from now, although it will likely get close. But Mr. Macron, risking all by calling the election, did end up guaranteeing that he will be marginalized, with perhaps no more than a third of the seats his party now holds.

极右翼政党国民联盟虽然赢得了三分之一的选票，但并不能保证在六天后的决选中赢得绝对多数，尽管很可能会接近。但马克龙冒着一切风险宣布举行大选，最终确实保证了他将被边缘化，他的政党目前拥有的席位可能不超过三分之一。

“The decision to dissolve the National Assembly has, in fact, put an end to the political configuration that emerged from the presidential election of 2017,” said Édouard Philippe, one of Mr. Macron’s former prime ministers.

“解散国民议会的决定，实际上终结了2017年总统选举后出现的政治格局，”曾任马克龙政府总理的爱德华·菲利普说。

In 2017, Mr. Macron, then 39, swept to power, eviscerating the center-right Gaullists and the center-left socialists, the pillars of postwar France, in the name of a 21st-century realignment around a pragmatic center. It worked for a while, but increasingly, as Mr. Macron failed to form a credible moderate political party, the result has been one man and a shrinking circle of allies standing against the extremes of right and left.

2017年，时年39岁的马克龙以压倒性优势上台，他以21世纪围绕务实中间派的重组为名，彻底摧毁了战后法国的支柱——中右翼戴高乐主义者和中左翼社会主义者。这种做法在一段时间内奏效了，但是，由于马克龙未能组建一个可信的温和政党，结果只能是一个人和一个不断缩小的盟友圈子对抗左右两派的极端势力。

That stand, which sometimes served Mr. Macron well, has now collapsed in one of the more conspicuous self-inflicted debacles in recent European politics.

这一立场有时对马克龙很有好处，但现在已经崩溃，成为近年来欧洲政治中最引人注目的自残式失败之一。

Mr. Macron did not have to call an election just weeks before the Paris Olympics, even though the National Rally trounced him in European parliamentary elections. It is a measure of the desperate straits of France today that a meager victory for Mr. Macron would now be defined as keeping the National Rally, led by Marine Le Pen, from an absolute majority in the National Assembly, even if the price of that is ungovernable chaos.

尽管国民联盟在欧洲议会选举中击败了马克龙，但在巴黎奥运会开幕前几周，马克龙没有必要举行大选。让马琳·勒庞领导的国民联盟无法在国民议会获得绝对多数席位，就可以称得上是马克龙的小胜，即使这样做的代价是无法控制的混乱，这本身也反映了法国今天的绝望处境。

“They’re done,” Luc Rouban, a senior research fellow at Sciences Po University in Paris, said of Mr. Macron’s centrist movement. “I do not see any margin of maneuver for them.”

“他们完蛋了，”巴黎政治学院高级研究员吕克·鲁本在谈到马克龙的中间派运动时说。“我看不出他们有任何回旋余地。”

France, unlike Italy or Belgium, has no culture of living in limbo without an appointed government for long periods. But that possibility now looms.

与意大利和比利时不同，法国没有长期处于无指定政府状态的文化。但这种可能性现在正在逼近。

If the National Rally wins an absolute majority, Mr. Macron will almost certainly have to live with Jordan Bardella, 28, Ms. Le Pen’s protégé, as his prime minister since that party would move to topple anyone else. But Mr. Macron and Mr. Bardella — with opposing viewpoints — would find themselves in an uncomfortable partnership.

如果国民联盟赢得绝对多数席位，马克龙几乎肯定将不得不让勒庞的门徒、28岁的乔丹·巴德拉担任总理，因为该党会采取行动推翻其他任何人。但马克龙和巴德拉观点相左，他们的合作关系肯定不会融洽。

If there is no such National Rally majority, Mr. Macron will be faced with a very large far-right group, and a large left and extreme-left alliance in the Assembly, all viscerally opposed to him. It is unclear how he would form a governing coalition. The only possibility might be some form of caretaker government headed by technocrats pending a further dissolution of the Assembly a year from now, when the Constitution would allow it again.

如果国民联盟没有这样的多数席位，马克龙将面临一个非常庞大的极右翼团体，以及议会中一个庞大的左翼和极左联盟，这些人都强烈反对他。目前还不清楚他将如何组建执政联盟。唯一的可能是成立某种形式的看守政府，由技术官僚领导，等待一年后宪法允许议会再次解散。

The National Rally and its allies qualified for the second round of voting in over 480 districts and were in the lead or directly elected in 297 of those, according to an analysis of the results by Franceinfo. Mr. Macron’s centrist coalition, by contrast, is poised to lose many of the 250 seats it had held since 2022, qualifying for the runoff in 319 districts and leading or being directly elected in just 69 of them. A party needs 289 seats to hold an absolute majority in the Assembly.

Mr. Macron’s Renaissance party urged its candidates to pull out of some constituency races where they finished in third place in the first round. The goal is to avoid splitting the vote and so prevent the far right from winning an absolute majority.

马克龙的复兴党敦促在该党第一轮中排名第三的候选人退出选区的竞选，目的是避免分裂选票，从而防止极右翼赢得绝对多数。

But, in yet another sign of division, some centrists were reluctant to do so in favor of the left because of what they see as a catastrophic economic program and remarks from Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the far left leader whose passionate support of the Palestinian cause has appeared more than once to cross a line into antisemitism.

但一些中间派人士不愿支持左派——这也是当前分裂局面的一个表现，因为他们认为左派的经济计划和极左派领导人让-吕克·梅兰雄的言论是灾难性的，他对巴勒斯坦事业的热情支持似乎不止一次越过了反犹太主义的底线。

“Nobody chose this dissolution,” Gabriel Attal, the outgoing prime minister who was once a favorite of Mr. Macron, said pointedly on Monday. “But I refuse that we be its victims.”

“没有人选择解散，”周一，即将卸任的总理加布里埃·阿塔尔尖锐地说，他曾是马克龙的亲信。“但我拒绝让我们成为受害者。”

Mr. Macron, who is term-limited and must leave office in 2027, will remain as president and, if Mr. Bardella becomes prime minister, will no doubt portray himself as the surviving rampart against a far-right that sees immigrants as second-class.

马克龙有任期限制，必须在2027年卸任，他将继续担任总统，如果巴尔德拉成为总理，马克龙无疑会把自己描绘成幸存下来，对抗将视移民为二等公民的极右翼的堡垒。

But his authority on domestic policy will be limited and his voice on the international stage, traditionally the exclusive domain of French presidents, will be diminished, particularly with respect to the European Union, where the euro-skeptic National Rally will do what it can to return power from Brussels to the nation. Mr. Macron has been a fierce advocate of what he calls “Europe power.”

但他在国内政策方面的权威将受到限制，他在国际舞台上的话语权——传统上，这是法国总统的专属领域——将被削弱，尤其是在欧盟问题上，对欧元持怀疑态度的国民联盟将尽其所能，让权力从��鲁塞尔回归法国。马克龙一直是他所称的“欧洲力量”的热情倡导者。

It was striking that both Ms. Le Pen and Mr. Bardella chose to make their victory speeches Sunday against the backdrop of the French flag, without the blue and gold European Union flag that hangs from every city hall and government office in France, including the Hôtel de Matignon, residence of the prime minister, and the president’s Élysée Palace. The message that international priorities are shifting was unmistakable.

引人瞩目的是，勒庞和巴尔德拉周日都选择以法国国旗为背景下发表胜利演讲，而不是悬挂在法国每个市政厅和政府办公室（包括总理官邸马提翁府和总统府爱丽舍宫）的蓝金色欧盟旗帜。国际重点正在转移的信息是明确无误的。

So why did Mr. Macron call for the election?

那么，马克龙为什么要求举行选举呢？

It seems clear that he miscalculated, particularly with respect to the left, which he thought would splinter between moderate socialists and Mr. Mélenchon’s France Unbowed, increasing the chances that his own party would qualify for the second round. That fracture never happened. Rather, the New Popular Front coalition of those left-wing parties won 27.99 percent of the vote to Mr. Macron’s 20.04 percent and secured a place in many more runoffs.

很明显，他打错了算盘，尤其是在左翼方面，他认为左翼会分裂成温和的社会主义者和梅兰雄领导的不屈法国两派，从而增加他自己的政党进入第二轮的机会。这一分裂并未发生。相反，由这些左翼政党组成的新人民阵线联盟赢得了27.99%的选票，而马克龙的政党只获得了20.04%的选票，并得到在更多的决选中的一席之地。

A second miscalculation was that Mr. Macron believed he could still be a unifying figure when animosity toward him has grown steadily over his seven-year presidency. He wanted to embody the Republic and its values against the extremes. Too few voters were ready to buy that.

第二个误判是，马克龙认为，虽然在七年总统任期中，对他的敌意一直在稳步增长，但他仍然可以成为一个团结各方的人物。他希望体现共和国及其价值观，反对极端主义。然而没有多少选民愿意相信这一点。

They appear, instead, to have felt alienated by his perceived aloofness and highly personalized rule, typified by the shock decision to call the election. The longtime taboo against the National Rally no longer counted.

相反，他们似乎觉得他明显的冷漠和高度个性化的统治与大众脱节，典型的例子是他宣布进行选举这一令人震惊的决定。长期以来反对国民联盟的禁忌不再起作用。

“This was a personal rejection,” said Jacques Rupnik, a political scientist. “People no longer want Macron bringing them together.”

“这是对他个人的否决，”政治学家雅克·鲁普尼说。“人们不再希望马克龙把他们团结在一起。”

If true, as it appears to be, that would constitute a heavy blow to Mr. Macron. A highly intelligent man, with a ready wink and charm, he has always seen himself as able to persuade anyone, from President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia to former U.S. President Donald J. Trump, to agree with him. It did not always work, but his bold determination to break political barriers never abated.

如果真是这样，对马克龙来说将是一次沉重打击。他是一个非常聪明的人，领悟力强，魅力十足，他一直认为自己能够说服任何人，让他们同意自己的观点，从俄罗斯总统普京到美国前总统特朗普。这并不总能奏效，但他打破政治障碍的大胆决心从未减弱。

He talked to Mr. Putin for months after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine in 2022, when almost nobody else in the West would. This year, he would not rule out putting western troops on the ground in Ukraine, when almost everyone, led by President Biden, refused the idea. He declared that Europe faced “death” if it did not begin to emancipate itself from the United States, when plenty of other European states thought putting distance between the allies would be the death knell. Finally, advised by a tiny coterie, he called this election to the astonishment of many of his own ministers, who saw in it an almost suicidal move.

在2022年乌克兰战争爆发后，他与普京交谈数月，当时西方几乎没有人愿意这样做。今年，他不排除向乌克兰派遣西方地面部队的可能性，当时以拜登总统为首的几乎所有人都否定这样的想法。他宣称，如果欧洲不开始从美国手中解放，将面临“死亡”，而当时许多其他欧洲国家认为，与盟国保持距离将会敲响丧钟。最后，在一小群人的建议下，他宣布了这次选举，令他自己的许多部长感到惊讶，他们认为这几乎是自杀之举。

“The Macron thinking went that the house will burn down in three years,” said Nicole Bacharan, an author and political scientist, referring to the possibility that Ms. Le Pen would be elected in the 2027 presidential election. “So let’s burn it down now. Then we will see.”

“马克龙的想法是，房子将在三年内烧毁，”作家、政治学家妮可·巴卡兰说，她指的是勒庞在2027年总统大选中当选的可能性。“那我们现在就把它烧掉吧。然后我们再看看会怎样。”

France is a country of strong institutions and deep democratic traditions underwritten by the rule of law. It does not, and will not, burn easily. As a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, and a nuclear power, it commands an important place in international affairs that will persist, even if its domestic travails impinge to some degree on that.

法国是一个拥有强大制度和深厚民主传统的法治国家。它不愿也不会随随便便就乱作一团。作为联合国安理会常任理事国和核大国，法国在国际事务中拥有重要的地位，尽管其国内的困境会产生某种程度上的影响，但地位不会变。

Its economy, in part because of Mr. Macron’s policies, has drawn enormous foreign investment in recent years, and unemployment has decreased. Even if the national debt and the budget deficit have risen to levels that have alarmed both the European Commission and ratings agencies, its economic vitality seems greater than a troubled Germany’s. Nobody driving through France sees a country on the brink.

近年来，部分由于马克龙的政策，法国经济吸引了大量外国投资，失业率也有所下降。即使国家债务和预算赤字上升到令欧盟委员会和评级机构感到震惊的水平，它的经济活力似乎比陷入困境的德国更大。开车穿过法国时，不会有人感觉这个国家处于崩溃边缘。

Yet Mr. Macron has ushered France to a dangerous watershed. There was a reason a political barrier was long erected against the National Rally, with its quasi fascist history (now disavowed) and its enduring belief that immigrants dilute the essence of the French nation. The party provokes extreme reactions and troubled memories of the collaborationist wartime Vichy government.

然而，马克龙把法国带到了一个危险的分水岭。长期以来，人们对国民联盟设置政治障碍是有原因的，因为它有准法西斯的历史（现已被否认），而且一直认为移民稀释了法国民族的本质。该党激起了极端的反应，唤起了人们对战时通敌的维希政府的不安记忆。

Many members of France’s large Muslim minority, estimated at some five million people, are fearful of rule by the National Rally. In general, a feeling of profound uncertainty has settled over France.

法国的穆斯林少数民族人口众多（估计约有500万人），他们中的许多人都担心国民联盟的统治。总的来说，一种深刻的不确定感笼罩着法国。

“Burning a house is dangerous,” Ms. Bacharan said, “and Mr. Macron should have known that.”

“烧毁一座房子是很危险的，”巴卡兰说，“马克龙本应知道这一点。”