For years, President Biden has had a ready retort for the naysayers who have questioned his facility and fitness to run for president again at age 81 and to serve until he is 86. “Watch me,” he has said.
多年來,拜登總統對那些質疑他是否有能力、是否適合以81歲高齡再次競選總統並任職到86歲的反對者,一直有一個掛在嘴邊的反駁。「看我的,」他說。
But in the days since tens of millions of Americans watched him fumble Thursday’s debate in real time, Mr. Biden has essentially adopted a new line: Trust me.
但自從數千萬美國人觀看了他在週四辯論直播中的笨拙表現後,拜登就完全採用了一個新說法:相信我。
“Folks,” he said at a New York fund-raiser the next night, “I would not be running again if I did not believe with all of my heart and soul that I can do this job.”
「各位,」第二天晚上他在紐約的一個籌款活動上說,「如果我不是充分相信自己能夠勝任這份工作,我是不會再次參選的。」
It’s a cliché of political strategy that smart campaigns meet voters where they are. That typically means fashioning a strategy that taps into the public’s pre-existing feelings, rather than seeking to change how the electorate perceives matters.
政治策略的老生常談是,聰明的競選活動要迎合選民的需要。這通常意味著制定一種利用公眾既有感受的策略,而不是尋求改變選民對事物的看法。
廣告
Yet the trouble for the president is that even on the eve of his faltering debate, a New York Times/Siena College poll showed that 69 percent of voters — and 55 percent of Biden voters — saw Mr. Biden as too old to be an effective president. It is not a new concern: Nearly two years ago, a strong majority of Democratic voters said they wanted a new standard-bearer.
然而,拜登總統的麻煩之處在於,在辯論失敗的前夕,《紐約時報》和西恩納學院所做的一項民調顯示,69%的選民——以及55%的拜登支持者——認為拜登年紀太大,無法勝任總統的職位。這並非一個新問題:將近兩年前,多數民主黨選民表示,他們希望有一個新的旗手。
Now those persistent concerns from everyday Americans are being echoed publicly by many in the Democratic Party’s pundit class and privately by lawmakers, donors and strategists. They are worried about losing a 2024 campaign against former President Donald J. Trump, whom many view as an existential threat to the nation.
現在,這些來自普通美國人的持續擔憂得到了許多民主黨專家階層的公開響應,也得到了立法者、捐助者和戰略家的私下響應。他們擔心前總統川普會將2024年大選收入囊中,而許多人都認為,他對這個國家構成了生存威脅。
“Biden’s debate performance was a catastrophe from which there may be no recovery,” one House Democratic lawmaker texted a Democratic donor, Whitney Tilson. Mr. Tilson, a former hedge fund manager, shared the message on the condition the lawmaker not be named.
一位眾議院民主黨議員給民主黨捐款者惠特尼·蒂爾森發來一條短訊:「拜登在這次辯論會上的表現是一場災難,也許無法挽回。」曾任對沖基金經理的蒂爾森在分享這條短訊時,要求不要透露該議員的身份。
Around Mr. Biden, a siege mentality has set in for a team that remembers — and is fond of repeating — how it outlasted the doubters four years ago to win the nomination in the first place.
圍繞著拜登,他的團隊已經形成了一種受困者心態,他們沒有忘記——而且也樂於重複——四年前是如何戰勝質疑者,贏得提名的。
“He’s really at his best when the pundits are overreacting and counting him out,” Ted Kaufman, one of Mr. Biden’s closest advisers and his former chief of staff in the Senate, said in an interview. “He has a hell of record. I think he should stay. He is the best president in modern history.”
「專家們反應過度,把他排除在外,其實他處於最佳狀態,」拜登最親密的顧問之一、他擔任參議員時期的辦公室主任泰德·考夫曼在接受採訪時說。「他的表現非常出色。我認為他應該留下來。他是現代史上最出色的總統。」
Instead, the debate flop has ignited a fresh round of questions about whether Mr. Biden should stay atop the ticket. At the least, it has prolonged the very conversation his team had hoped to extinguish.
然而,這次辯論的慘淡表現,引發了對拜登是否應該繼續參選的新一輪質疑。至少,這讓他的團隊原本希望平息的話題得以延續下去。
辯論兩天後,紐約州東漢普頓的示威者。拜登的競選團隊曾希望這場辯論能迫使選民儘快接受川普與拜登再次交手的現實。
辯論兩天後,紐約州東漢普頓的示威者。拜登的競選團隊曾希望這場辯論能迫使選民儘快接受川普與拜登再次交手的現實。 Haiyun Jiang for The New York Times
“The gift Joe Biden gave us was agreeing to a debate before the convention,” said Jon Favreau, a former speechwriter for President Barack Obama and the co-host of the popular progressive podcast Pod Save America who has called for the party to consider replacing him. “If the debate was in October, I would be holding my tongue.”
「喬·拜登送給我們的禮物是同意在民主黨大會之前舉行一場辯論,」曾為歐巴馬總統撰寫演講稿、大受歡迎的進步派播客《拯救美國》的共同主持人喬恩·法夫羅說道。他呼籲民主黨考慮換人。「如果辯論是在10月進行,我就什麼都不會說了。」
Mr. Favreau said the Biden camp’s attempts to silence the second-guessers were insulting to voters.
法夫羅表示,拜登陣營企圖讓那些質疑者保持沉默的做法,是對選民的侮辱。
廣告
“Guess what — millions of Americans saw that,” Mr. Favreau said of the debate, “and you can’t just tell people who are criticizing that they’re bed-wetters and crazy.”
法夫羅在談到辯論時說:「你猜怎麼著——數以百萬計的美國人看到了這一點,你不能對批評你的人說他們是尿床的瘋子。」
On the Democratic National Committee’s call for members over the weekend, the party chairman, Jaime Harrison, spoke while everyone else was on mute. It felt to some like a too-on-the-nose metaphor for party leadership’s lack of desire for genuine grass-roots feedback.
在民主黨全國委員會週末召集成員開會時,主席傑米·哈利森在其他人都靜音的狀態下做了發言。在一些人看來,這似乎是一個過於淺白的隱喻,表明黨內領導層並不想真正聽到來自基層的反饋。
The Biden campaign sees the $26 million in grass-roots donations and volunteer sign-ups that tripled the usual rate as evidence of voter support post-debate.
拜登的競選團隊認為,2600萬美元的基層捐款和志願者報名人數是平時的三倍,都是辯論後選民支持的證據。
In recent days, Mr. Biden has more frontally acknowledged his flaws — and not just on the debate stage, saying that he didn’t “walk as easy as I used to” or “speak as smoothly as I used to.”
最近幾天,拜登更加坦率地承認了自己的問題所在——不僅僅是在辯論台上,他說自己「走路沒有以前那麼輕鬆了」,「說話也沒有以前那麼流暢了」。
Some attention has centered on the role of the first lady, Jill Biden. Her assistance to her husband as he tried to descend a step after the debate went viral, as did her post-debate praise at a rally (“Joe, you did such a great job!”). On Monday, Vogue unveiled its newest cover, featuring Dr. Biden wearing a $5,000 white Ralph Lauren tuxedo dress alongside the words: “We will decide our future.”
一些注意力集中在第一夫人吉爾·拜登的角色上。拜登在辯論結束後試圖走下台階時,她幫忙攙扶的畫面在網上瘋傳,同樣瘋傳的還有她在辯論後的集會上所做的讚美(「喬,你做得很好!)。週一,《Vogue》雜誌公布了最新一期的封面,是吉爾·拜登身穿一件價值5000美元的白色拉爾夫·勞倫禮服,配文寫著:「我們將決定我們的未來。」
Michael LaRosa, a former adviser to Dr. Biden, said those expecting her to urge her husband to step aside fundamentally misunderstood their political relationship. He said it was a partnership forged in part by Mr. Biden’s early exit in the 1988 presidential race after a plagiarism scandal.
吉爾·拜登的前顧問麥可·拉羅莎說,那些期待她敦促丈夫退選的人根本不理解他們之間的政治關係。他說,拜登在1988年的總統競選中因剽竊醜聞提前退出,在一定程度上塑造了這種夥伴關係。
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“In 1987, she saw him be forced out by the press, pundits and polls, and it was really a scarring experience for both of them,” said Mr. LaRosa, who said he had discussed the 1988 episode multiple times with the first lady when he worked for her. “I think they learned from that experience and they weren’t going to have their hands forced like they were in 1987.”
「1987年,她親眼目睹他被媒體、專家和民調逼著退出,這對他們倆來說真的是一次痛苦的經歷,」拉羅薩說道。他還表示,之前為第一夫人工作時,兩人曾多次討論過1988年的事情。「我認為他們從那次經歷中吸取了教訓,不會再像1987年那樣受到強迫。」
The Bidens, Mr. LaRosa explained, view Mr. Biden’s life and career as a tale of overcoming adversity. “This is another chapter of resilience in what is the story of Joe Biden,” he said, summarizing how he believed they would see it.
拉羅莎解釋說,拜登夫婦將拜登的生活和職業生涯視為一個不斷戰勝逆境的故事。他說,「目前是喬·拜登的故事中又一個關於堅韌不拔的篇章」,並總結道,他相信他們會這樣看待這件事。
Indeed, the Biden campaign’s first post-debate ad closed with Mr. Biden declaring, “When you get knocked down you get back up.”
事實上,在拜登競選團隊於辯論後發布的第一支競選廣告的結尾,拜登宣稱:「當你被擊倒時,你會重新站起來。」
Any serious reckoning inside the party about Mr. Biden’s age was put on ice after the 2022 midterm elections, when Democrats outperformed expectations. The White House took it as validation of its political strategy — and of the limitations of studying the president’s sagging approval ratings for clues to the outcome of elections.
在2022年期中選舉後,關於拜登年齡的任何嚴肅考量都被擱置了。當時民主黨的表現超出了預期。白宮認為這是對其政治策略的肯定,同時也證明了從總統不斷下滑的支持率去判斷選舉的成敗是有局限的。
辯論後第二天,拜登和第一夫人吉爾·拜登在北卡羅萊納州羅利市參加競選造勢活動。拜登競選團隊在辯論後發布的第一支廣告中,拜登宣稱:「當你被擊倒時,你會重新站起來。」
辯論後第二天,拜登和第一夫人吉爾·拜登在北卡羅萊納州羅利市參加競選造勢活動。拜登競選團隊在辯論後發布的第一支廣告中,拜登宣稱:「當你被擊倒時,你會重新站起來。」 Haiyun Jiang for The New York Times
“My intention is that I run again,” Mr. Biden said the next day.
「我打算再次參選,」拜登第二天表示。
And that was that.
沒有什麼可說的了。
廣告
In the wake of the debate, senior Biden officials are making the case privately that switching candidates would be unrealistic, risky and chaotic. And in a fund-raising message, Rob Flaherty, a deputy campaign manager, explicitly argued that any alternative would “be less likely to win than Joe Biden.”
辯論結束後,拜登競選團隊的高級官員們私下表示,更換候選人是不現實的,這麼做存在很大冒險,而且容易導致混亂。副競選經理羅布·弗萊赫蒂在一條籌款信息中明確表示,任何替代人選都「比喬·拜登更不可能獲勝」。
Some of the Democratic Party’s future leaders urged voters to stand by Mr. Biden.
一些民主黨未來的領導人也敦促選民支持拜登。
“We’ve got to have the back of this president,” Gov. Gavin Newsom of California said on MSNBC in the spin room after the debate. The next morning, Gov. Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania went on MSNBC and said, “Stop worrying and start working.”
「我們必須支持這位總統,」辯論結束後,加州州長加文·紐森在採訪室接受MSNBC採訪時說。第二天早上,賓夕法尼亞州州長約什·夏皮羅在MSNBC上說,「放下憂慮,專心做事。」