In March 2018, a day after announcing sweeping tariffs on metals imported from America’s allies and adversaries alike, President Donald J. Trump took to social media to share one of his central economic philosophies: “Trade wars are good, and easy to win.”

2018年3月，在宣布對進口金屬——���論是來自美國盟友還是對手——徵收全面關稅的第二天，川普總統在社群媒體上分享了他的核心經濟哲學之一：「貿易戰是好事，很容易打贏。」

As president, Mr. Trump presided over the biggest increase in U.S. tariffs since the Great Depression, hitting China, Canada, the European Union, Mexico, India and other governments with stiff levies. They hit back, imposing tariffs on American soybeans, whiskey, orange juice and motorcycles. U.S. agricultural exports plummeted, prompting Mr. Trump to send $23 billion to farmers to help offset losses.

Now, as he runs for president again, Mr. Trump is promising to ratchet up his trade war to a much greater degree. He has proposed “universal baseline tariffs on most foreign products,” including higher levies on certain countries that devalue their currency. In interviews, he has floated plans for a 10 percent tariff on most imports and a tariff of 60 percent or more on Chinese goods. He has also posited cutting the federal income tax and relying on tariffs for revenue instead.

如今再次競選總統之際，川普承諾將大幅升級貿易戰。他提議「對大多數外國產品徵收統一的基準關稅」，包括對某些貨幣貶值的國家徵收更高的關稅。在接受採訪時，他提出了對大多數進口商品徵收10%關稅，對中國商品徵收60%或更高關稅的計劃。他還提議削減聯邦所得稅，轉而依靠關稅來獲得收入。

Mr. Trump, who once proclaimed himself “Tariff Man,” has long argued that tariffs would boost American factories, end the gap between what America imported and what it exported and increase American jobs.

His first round of levies hit more than $400 billion worth of imports, including steel, solar panels, washing machines and Chinese goods like smart watches, chemicals, bicycle helmets and motors. His rationale was that import taxes would revive American manufacturing, reduce reliance on foreign goods and allow U.S. companies to better compete against cheap products from China and other countries.

他的第一輪關稅打擊了價值超過4000億美元的進口商品，包括鋼鐵、太陽能電池板、洗衣機以及智能手錶、化學品、單車頭盔和電機等中國商品。他的理由是，進口稅將重振美國製造業，減少對外國商品的依賴，並使美國公司能夠更好地與來自中國和其他國家的廉價產品競爭。

Economists say the tariffs did reduce imports and encouraged U.S. factory production for certain industries, including steel, semiconductors and computer equipment. But that came at a very high cost, one that most likely offset any overall gains. Studies show that the tariffs resulted in higher prices for American consumers and factories that depend on foreign inputs, and reduced U.S. exports for certain goods that were subject to retaliation.

Mr. Trump is now envisioning taxing perhaps 10 times as many imports as he did during his first term, an approach that economists say could trigger a trade war that drives up already high prices and plunges the U.S. into a recession.

川普現在設想的對進口商品的徵稅可能是他第一個任期的10倍，經濟學家表示，這種做法可能會引發一場推高本已高企的物價、使美國陷入衰退的貿易戰。

David Autor, an economics professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, said the proposals would have “a very large effect on prices almost immediately.”

麻省理工學院經濟學教授戴維·奧托表示，這些提議「幾乎會立即對物價產生非常大的影響」。

“I don’t think they’ll do it,” Mr. Autor said. “It could easily cause a recession.”

「我認為他們不會這麼做，」奧托說。「這很容易導致經濟衰退。」

In a recent letter, 16 Nobel Prize-winning economists wrote that they were “deeply concerned” about the risks a second Trump administration posed to the economy, inflation and the rule of law.

在最近的一封信中，16位獲得諾貝爾獎的經濟學家對第二任川普政府可能給經濟、通膨和法治帶來的風險表達了「深切擔憂」。

“We believe that a second Trump term would have a negative impact on the U.S.’s economic standing in the world and a destabilizing effect on the U.S.’s domestic economy,” they wrote.

「我們認為，川普的第二個任期將對美國在世界上的經濟地位產生負面影響，並對美國國內經濟造成不穩定影響，」他們寫道。

Mr. Trump and his supporters have a much more positive view of tariffs, arguing that they serve as leverage with foreign governments, reduce the trade deficit with China and result in the growth of U.S. manufacturing jobs.

“I happen to be a big believer in tariffs because I think tariffs give you two things: They give you economic gain, but they also give you political gain,” Mr. Trump said on a recent podcast.

Karoline Leavitt, the Trump campaign national press secretary, said in a statement that “the American people don’t need worthless out-of-touch Nobel Prize winners to tell them which president put more money in their pockets.”

川普競選團隊的全國新聞秘書卡洛琳·萊維特在聲明中說：「美國人民不需要毫無價值、脫離現實的諾貝爾獎得主來告訴他們，哪位總統把更多的錢放進了他們的口袋。」

“President Trump built the strongest economy in American history,” she said. “In just three years, Joe Biden’s out-of-control spending created the worst inflation crisis in generations.”

「川普總統打造了美國歷史上最強勁的經濟，」她說。「在短短三年時間裡，拜登失控的支出造成了幾代人以來最嚴重的通貨膨脹危機。」

Jamieson L. Greer, a partner in the international trade team at King & Spalding, who was involved with China trade negotiations during the Trump administration, said the view of Trump officials was that tariffs “can help support U.S. manufacturing jobs in particular, especially to the extent that they’re remediating an unfair trade practice.”

金與斯伯丁律師事務所國際貿易團隊合伙人賈米森·格里爾在川普政府期間參與了中國貿易談判，他說，川普官員的觀點是，關稅「尤其有助於支持美國製造業的就業，尤其是在它糾正了不公平貿易做法的情況下」。

China has long engaged in policies that disadvantage American workers, but other countries also have unfair trade and tax policies or misaligned currencies, Mr. Greer said.

格里爾說，中國長期以來一直採取不利於美國工人的政策，但其他國家也有不公平的貿易和稅收政策，或者匯率失調。

“If you level out that playing field, it makes it so that Americans don’t have to compete unfairly,” he said.

「如果你讓競爭環境變得公平，美國人就不必參加不公平的競爭，」他說。

Mr. Trump’s tariffs have domestic supporters among the industries that have benefited from them. And President Biden gave them his own stamp of approval by choosing to keep Mr. Trump’s China tariffs in place while adding some of his own, including on electric cars, steel and semiconductors.

But some of the industries that were hit hardest by Mr. Trump’s trade wars are not looking forward to a sequel. Executives in sectors like retail and spirits worry that another round of tariffs could reignite tensions, raise their costs and again close off critical markets abroad.

但一些受川普貿易戰打擊最嚴重的行業不希望看到這一情況的續演。零售和烈酒等行業的高管擔心，新一輪關稅可能會重新引發緊張局勢，增加他們的成本，並再次被擋在關鍵的海外市場外面。

Spirit exports to Europe declined by 20 percent after the European Union imposed a 25 percent retaliatory tariff on American whiskey in response to the Trump administration’s tariffs on steel and aluminum. And the China tariffs increased the prices that retailers had to pay for their products, forcing them to either raise prices for their customers or cut into their profits.

為了反制川普政府對鋼鐵和鋁所征關稅，歐盟針對美國威士忌徵收25%的報復性關稅，結果美國對歐洲的烈酒出口下降了20%。而針對中國的關稅增加了零售商的進貨成本，迫使他們要麼提高售價，要麼削減利潤。

“We need a trade policy, not just more tariffs,” said David French, executive vice president of government relations at the National Retail Federation. His group, which represents department stores, e-commerce sites and grocers, ran a television ad campaign opposing the Trump tariffs in 2018. “All they’ve done is add friction to the supply chain and cost consumers $220 billion.”

「我們需要的是貿易政策，而不僅僅是更多的關稅，」全國零售商聯合會負責政府關係的執行副總裁戴維·弗倫奇說道。該聯合會是百貨公司、電子商務網站和雜貨商的代表機構，2018年曾在電視打廣告反對川普的關稅政策。「他們的所作所為只是增加了供應鏈的摩擦，給消費者造成了2200億美元的損失。」

“Former President Trump looks at trade as some sort of zero-sum game — if you win, I lose and vice versa,” Mr. French said. “That’s really not the way trade works.”

「前總統川普把貿易視為某種零和遊戲——不是你贏我輸，就是我贏你輸，」弗蘭奇說。「貿易並不是這樣運作的。」

The power of tariffs to help or hinder exports is clear in industries that eventually won a reprieve. In 2021, whiskey tariffs were temporarily suspended as part of a deal the Biden administration made with the European Union. American whiskey exports to the bloc rose from $439 million in 2021 to $705 million last year.

在最終獲得關稅赦免的行業，關稅對出口的幫助或阻礙作用是顯而易見的。2021年，作為拜登政府與歐盟所達成協議的一部分，威士忌關稅被暫時取消。美國對歐盟的威士忌出口額從2021年的4.39億美元增加到去年的7.05億美元。

Chris Swonger, the chief executive of the Distilled Spirits Council of the United States, said he was hopeful that, if re-elected, Mr. Trump would appreciate that strong exports of American spirits would help achieve his goal of reducing the trade deficit. The lobbying group wants the E.U. tariff suspension, which expires next March, to be extended.

美國蒸餾酒委員會首席執行官克里斯·斯旺格表示，如果川普再次當選的話，他希望他能夠意識到，美國烈酒的強勁出口有助於實現他減少貿易逆差的目標。這個遊說團體希望明年3月到期的歐盟關稅暫停期能夠延長。

“For President Trump, obviously we appreciate and respect his efforts to reduce the trade deficit,” said Mr. Swonger, who has made his case to Trump campaign officials. “Imposing tariffs on distilled spirits would be counter to reducing the trade deficit.”

「對於川普總統來說，我們顯然讚賞並尊重他為減少貿易逆差所做的努力，」斯旺格說。他已經向川普競選團隊的官員闡述了自己的觀點。「對蒸餾酒徵收關稅將與減少貿易逆差的初衷背道而馳。」

Research suggests the tariffs did accomplish their goal of increasing domestic production in the industries they protected, but did so by imposing other costs on the U.S. economy.

研究表明，關稅確實達到了增加受保護行業國內生產的目的，但同時也給美國經濟帶來了其他成本。

One nonpartisan government study found that the tariffs on foreign steel and aluminum increased U.S. production of those metals by $2.2 billion in 2021. But American factories that use steel and aluminum to make other things, like cars, tin cans and appliances, had to pay higher costs for their materials, and that reduced the output of those factories by $3.5 billion in the same year.

 一項無黨派政府研究發現，對外國鋼鐵和鋁徵收關稅使美國在2021年的鋼鐵和鋁產量增加了22億美元的規模。但是，使用鋼鐵和鋁製造汽車、錫罐和電器等其他產品的美國工廠不得不負擔更高的原材料成本，使這些工廠的產量在同一年減少了35億美元。

Studies suggest the tariffs also had a mixed record when it came to jobs. In a recent paper, Mr. Autor and other economists found that the cumulative effect of Mr. Trump’s trade policies and other countries’ retaliation was slightly negative for American jobs, or at best a wash.

多個研究表明，在就業方面，關稅的效果也是好壞參半。在最近的一份論文中，奧托和其他經濟學家發現，川普的貿易政策和其他國家的報復措施對美國就業產生了略微負面的累積效應，最好的結果就是雙方誰也占不到便宜。

In terms of inflation, studies have estimated that American households faced higher prices as a result of the tariffs — from several hundred dollars to more than $1,000 annually.

But economists say consumers probably did not associate the higher prices they paid with the tariffs, given that inflation was low throughout Mr. Trump’s tenure and the economy was strong.

但經濟學家表示，消費者可能不會把他們支付的更高價格與關稅聯繫起來，因為在川普任期內，通膨率很低，經濟也很強勁。

While the economy remains robust, prices have spiked since 2021, and inflation remains elevated. That could make tariff-induced price increases more obvious and more painful this time around.

雖然經濟依然強勁，但自2021年以來，物價飆升，通膨居高不下。這一次，關稅引發的價格上漲可能會更加明顯和痛苦。

A recent analysis by the Peterson Institute of International Economics found that if Mr. Trump did impose a 10 percent tariff on all goods and a 60 percent tariff on China, it would cost a typical household in the middle of the income distribution about $1,700 in increased expenses each year.

Another analysis, by the right-leaning American Action Forum, estimated that a 10 percent tariff could impose additional annual costs of up to $2,350 per American household. Adding a 60 percent tariff on China would add another $1,950 to U.S. household costs.

右傾的美國行動論壇所做的一項分析估計，10%的關稅可能會給每個美國家庭帶來每年高達2350美元的額外成本。對中國商品徵收60%的關稅將使美國家庭成本再增加1950美元。

The burden of those tariffs would fall more heavily on poorer households, because they spend a larger share of their income on everyday products.

這些關稅的負擔將更多地落在貧困家庭身上，因為他們的日用品支出占收入的比例更大。

That could ultimately backfire on Mr. Trump, given that voter concerns about inflation are top of mind.

考慮到選民最關心的是通貨膨脹，這最終可能會給川普帶來適得其反的後果。

As he waited in line to attend Mr. Trump’s rally on Saturday in Philadelphia, Paul Rozick, an electrical warehouse manager from Bensalem, Pa., said high grocery and gas prices had outpaced his pay raises.

來自賓夕法尼亞州本薩利姆的電氣倉庫經理保羅·羅齊克週六在費城排隊等候參加川普的競選造勢集會時表示，食品雜貨和汽油價格高企，超出了他的漲薪幅度。

“Inflation is going up like 20 percent, but our paychecks go up like 2 percent,” Mr. Rozick said. “I’ve got less money in the bank because I’m spending more money when I walk out the door.”

「通膨上升了20%左右，但我們的薪水卻只漲了2%左右，」羅齊克說。「我銀行裡的錢變少了，因為我出門的時候花的錢更多了。