In March 2018, a day after announcing sweeping tariffs on metals imported from America’s allies and adversaries alike, President Donald J. Trump took to social media to share one of his central economic philosophies: “Trade wars are good, and easy to win.”

2018年3月，在宣布对进口金属——无论是来自美国盟友还是对手——征收全面关税的第二天，特朗普总统在社交媒体上分享了他的核心经济哲学之一：“贸易战是好事，很容易打赢。”

As president, Mr. Trump presided over the biggest increase in U.S. tariffs since the Great Depression, hitting China, Canada, the European Union, Mexico, India and other governments with stiff levies. They hit back, imposing tariffs on American soybeans, whiskey, orange juice and motorcycles. U.S. agricultural exports plummeted, prompting Mr. Trump to send $23 billion to farmers to help offset losses.

Now, as he runs for president again, Mr. Trump is promising to ratchet up his trade war to a much greater degree. He has proposed “universal baseline tariffs on most foreign products,” including higher levies on certain countries that devalue their currency. In interviews, he has floated plans for a 10 percent tariff on most imports and a tariff of 60 percent or more on Chinese goods. He has also posited cutting the federal income tax and relying on tariffs for revenue instead.

如今再次竞选总统之际，特朗普承诺将大幅升级贸易战。他提议“对大多数外国产品征收统一的基准关税”，包括对某些货币贬值的国家征收更高的关税。在接受采访时，他提出了对大多数进口商品征收10%关税，对中国商品征收60%或更高关税的计划。他还提议削减联邦所得税，转而依靠关税来获得收入。

Mr. Trump, who once proclaimed himself “Tariff Man,” has long argued that tariffs would boost American factories, end the gap between what America imported and what it exported and increase American jobs.

His first round of levies hit more than $400 billion worth of imports, including steel, solar panels, washing machines and Chinese goods like smart watches, chemicals, bicycle helmets and motors. His rationale was that import taxes would revive American manufacturing, reduce reliance on foreign goods and allow U.S. companies to better compete against cheap products from China and other countries.

他的第一轮关税打击了价值超过4000亿美元的进口商品，包括钢铁、太阳能电池板、洗衣机以及智能手表、化学品、自行车头盔和电机等中国商品。他的理由是，进口税将重振美国制造业，减少对外国商品的依赖，并使美国公司能够更好地与来自中国和其他国家的廉价产品竞争。

Economists say the tariffs did reduce imports and encouraged U.S. factory production for certain industries, including steel, semiconductors and computer equipment. But that came at a very high cost, one that most likely offset any overall gains. Studies show that the tariffs resulted in higher prices for American consumers and factories that depend on foreign inputs, and reduced U.S. exports for certain goods that were subject to retaliation.

Mr. Trump is now envisioning taxing perhaps 10 times as many imports as he did during his first term, an approach that economists say could trigger a trade war that drives up already high prices and plunges the U.S. into a recession.

特朗普现在设想的对进口商品的征税可能是他第一个任期的10倍，经济学家表示，这种做法可能会引发一场推高本已高企的物价、使美国陷入衰退的贸易战。

David Autor, an economics professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, said the proposals would have “a very large effect on prices almost immediately.”

麻省理工学院经济学教授戴维·奥托表示，这些提议“几乎会立即对物价产生非常大的影响”。

“I don’t think they’ll do it,” Mr. Autor said. “It could easily cause a recession.”

“我认为他们不会这么做，”奥托说。“这很容易导致经济衰退。”

In a recent letter, 16 Nobel Prize-winning economists wrote that they were “deeply concerned” about the risks a second Trump administration posed to the economy, inflation and the rule of law.

在最近的一封信中，16位获得诺贝尔奖的经济学家对第二任特朗普政府可能给经济、通胀和法治带来的风险表达了“深切担忧”。

“We believe that a second Trump term would have a negative impact on the U.S.’s economic standing in the world and a destabilizing effect on the U.S.’s domestic economy,” they wrote.

“我们认为，特朗普的第二个任期将对美国在世界上的经济地位产生负面影响，并对美国国内经济造成不稳定影响，”他们写道。

Mr. Trump and his supporters have a much more positive view of tariffs, arguing that they serve as leverage with foreign governments, reduce the trade deficit with China and result in the growth of U.S. manufacturing jobs.

“I happen to be a big believer in tariffs because I think tariffs give you two things: They give you economic gain, but they also give you political gain,” Mr. Trump said on a recent podcast.

Karoline Leavitt, the Trump campaign national press secretary, said in a statement that “the American people don’t need worthless out-of-touch Nobel Prize winners to tell them which president put more money in their pockets.”

特朗普竞选团队的全国新闻秘书卡洛琳·莱维特在声明中说：“美国人民不需要毫无价值、脱离现实的诺贝尔奖得主来告诉他们，哪位总统把更多的钱放进了他们的口袋。”

“President Trump built the strongest economy in American history,” she said. “In just three years, Joe Biden’s out-of-control spending created the worst inflation crisis in generations.”

“特朗普总统打造了美国历史上最强劲的经济，”她说。“在短短三年时间里，拜登失控的支出造成了几代人以来最严重的通货膨胀危机。”

Jamieson L. Greer, a partner in the international trade team at King & Spalding, who was involved with China trade negotiations during the Trump administration, said the view of Trump officials was that tariffs “can help support U.S. manufacturing jobs in particular, especially to the extent that they’re remediating an unfair trade practice.”

金与斯伯丁律师事务所国际贸易团队合伙人贾米森·格里尔在特朗普政府期间参与了中国贸易谈判，他说，特朗普官员的观点是，关税“尤其有助于支持美国制造业的就业，尤其是在它纠正了不公平贸易做法的情况下”。

China has long engaged in policies that disadvantage American workers, but other countries also have unfair trade and tax policies or misaligned currencies, Mr. Greer said.

格里尔说，中国长期以来一直采取不利于美国工人的政策，但其他国家也有不公平的贸易和税收政策，或者汇率失调。

“If you level out that playing field, it makes it so that Americans don’t have to compete unfairly,” he said.

“如果你让竞争环境变得公平，美国人就不必参加不公平的竞争，”他说。

Mr. Trump’s tariffs have domestic supporters among the industries that have benefited from them. And President Biden gave them his own stamp of approval by choosing to keep Mr. Trump’s China tariffs in place while adding some of his own, including on electric cars, steel and semiconductors.

But some of the industries that were hit hardest by Mr. Trump’s trade wars are not looking forward to a sequel. Executives in sectors like retail and spirits worry that another round of tariffs could reignite tensions, raise their costs and again close off critical markets abroad.

但一些受特朗普贸易战打击最严重的行业不希望看到这一情况的续演。零售和烈酒等行业的高管担心，新一轮关税可能会重新引发紧张局势，增加他们的成本，并再次被挡在关键的海外市场外面。

Spirit exports to Europe declined by 20 percent after the European Union imposed a 25 percent retaliatory tariff on American whiskey in response to the Trump administration’s tariffs on steel and aluminum. And the China tariffs increased the prices that retailers had to pay for their products, forcing them to either raise prices for their customers or cut into their profits.

为了反制特朗普政府对钢铁和铝所征关税，欧盟针对美国威士忌征收25%的报复性关税，结果美国对欧洲的烈酒出口下降了20%。而针对中国的关税增加了零售商的进货成本，迫使他们要么提高售价，要么削减利润。

“We need a trade policy, not just more tariffs,” said David French, executive vice president of government relations at the National Retail Federation. His group, which represents department stores, e-commerce sites and grocers, ran a television ad campaign opposing the Trump tariffs in 2018. “All they’ve done is add friction to the supply chain and cost consumers $220 billion.”

“我们需要的是贸易政策，而不仅仅是更多的关税，”全国零售商联合会负责政府关系的执行副总裁戴维·弗伦奇说道。该联合会是百货公司、电子商务网站和杂货商的代表机构，2018年曾在电视打广告反对特朗普的关税政策。“他们的所作所为只是增加了供应链的摩擦，给消费者造成了2200亿美元的损失。”

“Former President Trump looks at trade as some sort of zero-sum game — if you win, I lose and vice versa,” Mr. French said. “That’s really not the way trade works.”

“前总统特朗普把贸易视为某种零和游戏——不是你赢我输，就是我赢你输，”弗兰奇说。“贸易并不是这样运作的。”

The power of tariffs to help or hinder exports is clear in industries that eventually won a reprieve. In 2021, whiskey tariffs were temporarily suspended as part of a deal the Biden administration made with the European Union. American whiskey exports to the bloc rose from $439 million in 2021 to $705 million last year.

在最终获得关税赦免的行业，关税对出口的帮助或阻碍作用是显而易见的。2021年，作为拜登政府与欧盟所达成协议的一部分，威士忌关税被暂时取消。美国对欧盟的威士忌出口额从2021年的4.39亿美元增加到去年的7.05亿美元。

Chris Swonger, the chief executive of the Distilled Spirits Council of the United States, said he was hopeful that, if re-elected, Mr. Trump would appreciate that strong exports of American spirits would help achieve his goal of reducing the trade deficit. The lobbying group wants the E.U. tariff suspension, which expires next March, to be extended.

美国蒸馏酒委员会首席执行官克里斯·斯旺格表示，如果特朗普再次当选的话，他希望他能够意识到，美国烈酒的强劲出口有助于实现他减少贸易逆差的目标。这个游说团体希望明年3月到期的欧盟关税暂停期能够延长。

“For President Trump, obviously we appreciate and respect his efforts to reduce the trade deficit,” said Mr. Swonger, who has made his case to Trump campaign officials. “Imposing tariffs on distilled spirits would be counter to reducing the trade deficit.”

“对于特朗普总统来说，我们显然赞赏并尊重他为减少贸易逆差所做的努力，”斯旺格说。他已经向特朗普竞选团队的官员阐述了自己的观点。“对蒸馏酒征收关税将与减少贸易逆差的初衷背道而驰。”

Research suggests the tariffs did accomplish their goal of increasing domestic production in the industries they protected, but did so by imposing other costs on the U.S. economy.

研究表明，关税确实达到了增加受保护行业国内生产的目的，但同时也给美国经济带来了其他成本。

One nonpartisan government study found that the tariffs on foreign steel and aluminum increased U.S. production of those metals by $2.2 billion in 2021. But American factories that use steel and aluminum to make other things, like cars, tin cans and appliances, had to pay higher costs for their materials, and that reduced the output of those factories by $3.5 billion in the same year.

 一项无党派政府研究发现，对外国钢铁和铝征收关税使美国在2021年的钢铁和铝产量增加了22亿美元的规模。但是，使用钢铁和铝制造汽车、锡罐和电器等其他产品的美国工厂不得不负担更高的原材料成本，使这些工厂的产量在同一年减少了35亿美元。

Studies suggest the tariffs also had a mixed record when it came to jobs. In a recent paper, Mr. Autor and other economists found that the cumulative effect of Mr. Trump’s trade policies and other countries’ retaliation was slightly negative for American jobs, or at best a wash.

多个研究表明，在就业方面，关税的效果也是好坏参半。在最近的一份论文中，奥托和其他经济学家发现，特朗普的贸易政策和其他国家的报复措施对美国就业产生了略微负面的累积效应，最好的结果就是双方谁也占不到便宜。

In terms of inflation, studies have estimated that American households faced higher prices as a result of the tariffs — from several hundred dollars to more than $1,000 annually.

But economists say consumers probably did not associate the higher prices they paid with the tariffs, given that inflation was low throughout Mr. Trump’s tenure and the economy was strong.

但经济学家表示，消费者可能不会把他们支付的更高价格与关税联系起来，因为在特朗普任期内，通胀率很低，经济也很强劲。

While the economy remains robust, prices have spiked since 2021, and inflation remains elevated. That could make tariff-induced price increases more obvious and more painful this time around.

虽然经济依然强劲，但自2021年以来，物价飙升，通胀居高不下。这一次，关税引发的价格上涨可能会更加明显和痛苦。

A recent analysis by the Peterson Institute of International Economics found that if Mr. Trump did impose a 10 percent tariff on all goods and a 60 percent tariff on China, it would cost a typical household in the middle of the income distribution about $1,700 in increased expenses each year.

Another analysis, by the right-leaning American Action Forum, estimated that a 10 percent tariff could impose additional annual costs of up to $2,350 per American household. Adding a 60 percent tariff on China would add another $1,950 to U.S. household costs.

右倾的美国行动论坛所做的一项分析估计，10%的关税可能会给每个美国家庭带来每年高达2350美元的额外成本。对中国商品征收60%的关税将使美国家庭成本再增加1950美元。

The burden of those tariffs would fall more heavily on poorer households, because they spend a larger share of their income on everyday products.

这些关税的负担将更多地落在贫困家庭身上，因为他们的日用品支出占收入的比例更大。

That could ultimately backfire on Mr. Trump, given that voter concerns about inflation are top of mind.

考虑到选民最关心的是通货膨胀，这最终可能会给特朗普带来适得其反的后果。

As he waited in line to attend Mr. Trump’s rally on Saturday in Philadelphia, Paul Rozick, an electrical warehouse manager from Bensalem, Pa., said high grocery and gas prices had outpaced his pay raises.

来自宾夕法尼亚州本萨利姆的电气仓库经理保罗·罗齐克周六在费城排队等候参加特朗普的竞选造势集会时表示，食品杂货和汽油价格高企，超出了他的涨薪幅度。

“Inflation is going up like 20 percent, but our paychecks go up like 2 percent,” Mr. Rozick said. “I’ve got less money in the bank because I’m spending more money when I walk out the door.”

“通胀上升了20%左右，但我们的薪水却只涨了2%左右，”罗齐克说。“我银行里的钱变少了，因为我出门的时候花的钱更多了。