We used to have long debates about American exceptionalism, about whether this country was an outlier among nations, and I always thought the bulk of the evidence suggested that it was. But these days our political attitudes are pretty ordinary. America, far from standing out as the champion of democracy, as a nation that welcomes immigrants, as a perpetually youthful nation energized by its faith in the American dream, is now caught in the same sour, populist mood as pretty much everywhere else.

關於美國例外論，我們曾經有過很長時間的論辯，討論這個國家是否在眾多國家中屬於異類，我一直認為，大量證據表明確實如此。但如今，我們的政治態度相當普通。美國遠非脫穎而出的民主捍衛者，一個歡迎移民、因為對美國夢的信念而永葆青春活力的國家，如今，它與世界上幾乎所有地方一樣，陷入了陰鬱的民粹主義情緒之中。

Earlier this year, for example, the Ipsos research firm issued a report based on interviews with 20,630 adults in 28 countries, including South Africa, Indonesia, Brazil and Germany, last November and December. On question after question the American responses were, well, average.

例如，今年早些時候，益普索調查公司發布了一份報告，基於去年11月和12月對包括南非、印度尼西亞、巴西和德國在內的28個國家的20630名成年人的採訪。在一個又一個問題上，美國人的回答都——怎麼說呢——非常普通。

Our pessimism is average. Roughly 59 percent of Americans said they believed their country is in decline, compared to 58 percent of people across all 28 countries who said that. Sixty percent of Americans agreed with the statement “the system is broken,” compared to 61 percent in the worldwide sample who agreed with that.

我們的悲觀程度處於平均水平。大約59%的美國人表示，他們認為自己的國家正在衰落，而在所有28個國家中，持這一觀點的人佔58%。60%的美國人同意「體制已經崩潰」的說法，而全球樣本中有61%的人同意這一說法。

Our hostility to elites is average. Sixty-nine percent of Americans agreed that the “political and economic elite don’t care about hard-working people,” compared with 67 percent of respondents among all 28 nations. Sixty-three percent of Americans agreed that “experts in this country don’t understand the lives of people like me,” compared with 62 percent of respondents worldwide.

我們對精英的敵意處於平均水平。69%的美國人認為「政治和經濟精英不關心辛勤工作的人」，在所有28個國家的受訪者中，這一比例為67%。63%的美國人同意「這個國家的專家不了解像我這樣的人的生活」，而全球62%的受訪者持這一觀點。

Americans’ authoritarian tendencies are pretty average. Sixty-six percent of Americans said that the country “needs a strong leader to take the country back from the rich and powerful,” compared with 63 percent of respondents among the 28 nations overall. Forty percent of Americans said they believed we need a strong leader who will “break the rules,” which was only a bit below the 49 percent globally who believed that.

美國人的專制傾向也處於平均水平。66%的美國人表示，美國「需要一位強有力的領導人，把國家從富人和權貴手中奪回」，而在28個國家的受訪者中，這一比例為63%。40%的美國人表示，他們認為我們需要一位敢於「打破常規」的強勢領導人，這一比例僅略低於全球49%的受訪者。

Those results reveal a political climate — in the United States and across the world — that is extremely favorable for right-wing populists. That matters because this is a year of decision, a year in which at least 64 countries will hold national elections. Populism has emerged as the dominant global movement.

這些結果表明美國和世界各地的政治氣候對右翼民粹主義者極其有利。這很重要，因為今年是一個決定之年，至少64個國家將舉行全國選舉。民粹主義已成為佔主導地位的全球運動。

So far this year, populists have thrived in election after election. Incumbent populist regimes were or are about to be re-elected in India, Indonesia and Mexico. Populist parties have done well in Portugal, Slovakia and the Netherlands, where the far-right leader Geert Wilders shocked the world by leading his Party for Freedom to power.

今年到目前為止，民粹主義者在一次又一次的選舉中大獲全勝。在印度、印度尼西亞和墨西哥，現任民粹主義政權已經或即將連任。民粹主義政黨在葡萄牙、斯洛伐克和荷蘭表現出色，荷蘭極右翼領導人海爾特·威爾德斯領導他的自由黨掌權，震驚了世界。

European elites are bracing for the European Parliament elections next month. If the polls are to be believed, the parliament is about to shift sharply to the right, endangering current policies on climate change and Ukraine. Experts project that anti-Europe populist parties are likely to come out on top in the Euro-parliamentary voting in nine member states: France, Italy, Austria, Belgium, the Czech Republic, Hungary, the Netherlands, Poland and Slovakia. Such parties are likely to come in second or third in nine others, including Germany and Spain.

歐洲精英們正在為下個月的歐洲議會選舉做準備。如果民意調查可信，那麼議會將急劇右傾，危及當前氣候變化和烏克蘭政策。專家們預測，在法國、義大利、奧地利、比利時、捷克、匈牙利、荷蘭、波蘭、斯洛伐克等九個成員國的歐洲議會選舉中，反歐洲的民粹主義政黨很有可能佔據上風。在包括德國和西班牙在內的其他九個國家，這類政黨很可能排在第二或第三位。

Then, of course, there is Donald Trump’s slight but steady lead in the swing states in the United States.

當然，還有川普在美國搖擺州微弱但穩定的領先優勢。

If anything, the evidence suggests that the momentum is still on the populist side. Trump seems to be expanding his lead among working-class voters. In Europe, populists are making big gains, not just among the old and disillusioned, but among the young. According to one survey, 41 percent of European voters aged 18 to 35 have moved toward the right or far right. In the recent Portuguese elections, young voters surged to the right- wing populist Chega (Enough) party while nearly half the support for the rival Socialist Party came from voters older than 65.

One obvious takeaway is that it’s a mistake to analyze our presidential election in America-only terms. President Biden and Trump are being tossed about by global conditions far beyond their control.

一個顯而易見的結論是，只從美國的角度來分析我們的總統選舉是錯誤的。拜登總統和川普正被遠遠超出他們控制的全球形勢左右著。

The trends also suggest that we could be in one of those magnetic years in world history. There are certain moments in history, like 1848 and 1989, when events in different countries seem to build on one another, when you get sweeping cascades that bring similar changes to different nations, when the global consciousness seems to shift.

這些趨勢還表明，我們可能正處於世界歷史上那種具有吸力的年份之一。歷史上有一些特定的時刻，不同國家發生的事件似乎相輔相成，席捲一切的洪流讓各國都發生類似的變化，全球意識似乎發生了轉變，1848年和1989年就是如此。

Of course, the main difference between those years and 2024 is that during those earlier pivotal moments the world experienced an expansion of freedom, the spread of democracy, the advance of liberal values. This year we’re likely to see all those widely in retreat.

當然，那些年份與2024年之間的主要區別在於，在早先的那些關鍵時刻，世界經歷了自由的擴張、民主的傳播和自由價值觀的推進。今年，我們很可能會看到所有這一切的廣泛後退。

Is there a way to fight back against the populist tide? Of course there is, but it begins with the humble recognition that the attitudes that undergird populism emerged over decades and now span the globe. If social trust is to be rebuilt, it probably has to be rebuilt on the ground, from the bottom up. As for what mainstream candidates should do this election year, I can’t improve on the advice offered by the Hoover Institution scholar Larry Diamond in The American Interest magazine in 2020:

有沒有辦法反擊民粹主義浪潮？當然有，但首先要謙卑地認識到，作為民粹主義基礎的觀念是幾十年來形成的，如今已經遍布全球。如果要重建社會信任，可能必須腳踏實地，自下而上地進行這項工作。至於主流候選人在這個大選年應該做些什麼，胡佛研究所學者拉里·戴蒙德在2020年的《美國利益》(American Interest)雜誌上提出的建議，我覺得很完善了：

• Don’t try to out-polarize the polarizer. If you stridently denounce the populist, you only mobilize his base and make yourself look like part of the hated establishment.

· 不要試圖比極化者更極化。如果你尖銳地譴責對方的民粹主義者，你只會令他的支持者動員起來，並且讓自己看起來像是令人討厭的建制派的一部分。

• Reach out to the doubting elements of his supporters. Don’t question the character of his backers or condescend; appeal to their interests and positive dreams.

· 與支持者中的懷疑分子接觸。不要質疑他支持者的人品，也不要顯得高他們一等；而是要迎合他們的興趣和積極的夢想。

• Avoid tit-for-tat name calling. You’ll be paying his game, and you’ll look smaller.

· 避免針鋒相對的辱罵。那是在玩他熟悉的遊戲，讓你顯得渺小。

• Craft an issue-packed campaign. The Ipsos survey shows that even people who hate the system are eager for programs that create jobs, improve education, health care and public safety. As Diamond puts it, “Offer substantive, practical, nonideological policy proposals.”

· 策劃一個議題豐富的競選活動。益普索的調查顯示，即使是討厭現行體制的人，也渴望能創造就業機會、改善教育、醫療保健和公共安全的計劃。正如戴蒙德所說，「提供實質性的、實際的、非意識型態的政策建議。」

• Don’t let the populists own patriotism. Offer a liberal version of national pride that gives people a sense of belonging across difference.

· 不要讓民粹主義者佔有愛國主義。提供一種自由派版本的民族自豪感，給人們一種跨越差異的歸屬感。

• Don’t be boring. The battle for attention is remorseless. Don’t let advisers make their candidates predictable, hidden and safe.

· 不要讓自己顯得無趣。爭奪注意力的戰鬥是無情的。不要讓那些顧問把他們的候選人變得可預測、隱蔽和安全。

It’s looking like this year’s elections will be won by whichever side stands for change. Populists promise to tear down systems. Liberals need to make the case for changing them in a comprehensive and constructive way.

今年的選舉似乎將由支持變革的一方獲勝。民粹主義者承諾摧毀各種體制。而自由主義者需要以一種全面和建設性的方式來改變它們。