Even with growth faltering in China, Xi Jinping appears imperiously assured that he possesses the right road map to surpass Western rivals.

即便中國經濟增長緩慢，習近平似乎仍目空一切地確信，自己擁有超越西方競爭對手的正確路線圖。

China’s economy has lurched into a slower gear. Its population is shrinking and aging. Its rival, the United States, has built up a lead in artificial intelligence. Mr. Xi’s pronouncement several years ago that “the East is rising and the West is declining” — that his country was on the way up while American power shrank — now seems premature, if not outright hubristic.

中國經濟已陷入低速增長，人口正在減少和老齡化。中國的競爭對手——美國已經在人工智慧領域取得了領先地位。幾年前，習近平曾宣稱「東升西降」，現在看來即使不是狂妄自大，也是為時過早的結論。

The problems have brought growing talk abroad that China could peak before it fully arrives as a superpower. But Mr. Xi seems unbowed in insisting that his policies, featuring extensive party control and state-led industrial investment in new sectors like electric vehicles and semiconductors, can secure China’s rise.

這些問題在國外引發了越來越多的討論，認為中國可能會在完全成為超級大國之前就達到頂峰。但習近平似乎不為所動，堅持認為自己的政策能夠確保中國崛起，這些政策包括黨的廣泛控制，以及由國家主導的對電動車和半導體等新行業的產業投資。

In a mark of that confidence, his government announced last week that China’s economy was likely to grow about 5 percent this year, much the same pace as last year, according to official statistics. And Mr. Xi emphasized his ambitions for a new phase of industrial growth driven by innovation, acting as if the past year or two of setbacks were an aberration.

為了顯示這種信心，中國政府上週宣布，根據官方統計數據，中國經濟今年可能增長5%左右，與去年的增速基本持平。習近平還強調了他要進入一個由創新驅動的工業增長新階段的雄心，似乎過去一兩年的挫折只是偶然。

“Faced with a technological revolution and industrial transformation, we must seize the opportunity,” he told delegates at China’s annual legislative meeting in Beijing, who were shown on television ardently applauding him.

「面對新一輪科技革命和產業變革，我們必須搶抓機遇，」他在北京舉行的中國一年一度的全國人大會議上對與會代表說，電視畫面顯示，代表們對他報以熱烈的掌聲。

He later told another group at the legislative session that China had to “win the battle for key core technologies,” and he told People’s Liberation Army officers to build up “strategic capabilities in emerging areas,” which, the officers indicated, included artificial intelligence, cyberoperations and space technology.

他後來在全國人大會議上對另一個小組表示，中國必須「打好關鍵核心技術攻堅戰」，並告訴中國人民解放軍軍官要建立「更好推進新興領域戰略能力建設」，軍隊代表指出，其中包括人工智慧、網路作戰和空間技術。

Mr. Xi’s bullishness may partly be for show: Chinese leaders are, like politicians anywhere, loath to admit mistakes. And some officials have privately conceded that the economic malaise is tamping down China’s ambitions and swagger, for now at least.

習近平的樂觀情緒在一定程度上可能是作秀：與其他地方的政治人物一樣，中國領導人也不願承認錯誤。一些官員私下承認，經濟不景氣正在抑制中國的雄心和氣勢，至少目前如此。

Ryan Hass, the director of the John L. Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institution who visited China late last year, said he came away with a sense that “the Chinese are a bit chastened even compared to where they were a year ago. The trajectory of China’s economy overtaking America’s in coming years — that’s been pushed further out on the horizon.”

布魯金斯學會約翰·桑頓中國中心主任何雷恩(Ryan Hass)去年年底訪問了中國，他說，他離開時有一種感覺，「即使與一年前相比，中國人也沒有原來那麼自大了。」中國經濟在未來幾年超越美國的軌跡——已經被推得更遠了。」

Even so, Mr. Xi’s determination to stick to his long-term ambitions seems more than a show. “Xi and his team still believe that time and momentum remain on China’s side,” said Mr. Hass, a former director for China at the U.S. National Security Council. “With Xi in power,” he added, it’s hard to envision “any significant re-calibration in the overall trajectory that China’s on.”

即便如此，習近平堅持其長期雄心的決心似乎不僅僅是一場作秀。「習近平和他的團隊仍然相信，時與勢仍然在中國這一邊，」前美國國家安全委員會中國事務主任何雷恩說。「習近平一直大權在握，」他補充道，很難想像「中國的整體走向會出現任何重大的重新調整」。

Since taking office in 2012, Mr. Xi has tightened the hold of the Communist Party on Chinese society. He has extended state management of the economy, expanded the security apparatus to extinguish potential challenges to party rule, and confronted Washington over technology, Taiwan and other disputes.

自2012年上任以來，習近平加強了共產黨對中國社會的控制。他擴大了國家對經濟的領導，擴充了安全機構以消除對共產黨統治的潛在挑戰，並就技術、台灣和其他爭端與華盛頓對峙。

To Mr. Xi’s critics, his centralizing, hard-line tendencies are part of China’s problems. He did not cause China’s risky dependence on the property market for growth, and he has worked to end it. But many economists argue he has been too heavy-handed, stifling business and innovation. Critics argue that Mr. Xi has also needlessly antagonized Western governments, prompting them to restrict access to technology and deepen security ties with Washington.

對於習近平的批評者來說，他的集權、強硬傾向是中國問題的一部分。造成中國對房地產市場增長高風險依賴的不是他，而且他一直在努力結束這種情況。但許多經濟學家認為，他的手段過於嚴厲，扼殺了商業和創新。批評者認為，習近平還不必要地激怒了西方政府，促使後者限制技術的獲取，並加深與華盛頓的安全關係。

Since last year, the Chinese government moved to ease those strains. It has taken steps aiming to revive confidence among private businesses. Mr. Xi has also sought to dial down tensions with the United States and other countries.

自去年以來，中國政府開始採取行動緩解這些壓力。它採取了旨在重振民營企業信心的措施。習近平還尋求緩和與美國及其他國家的緊張關係。

Such moderating gestures point to what Mr. Xi has described as the “tactical flexibility” he expects of Chinese officials in difficult times. But in Mr. Xi’s telling, even as officials make easing steps, they must stick to his long-term objectives. He and his loyal subordinates have been defending his policies in speeches and editorials, suggesting that the doubters are shortsighted. Chinese officials and scholars have also stepped up denunciations of Western analysts who have forecast that China faces an era of decline.

按照習近平所說的，他期望中國官員在困難時期能有「策略的靈活性」，上述溫和姿態便體現出了這一點。但按照習近平的說法，即使官員們採取寬鬆措施，他們也必須堅持他的長期目標。他��其忠誠的下屬一直在講話和社論中捍衛自己的政策，暗示懷疑者目光短淺。中國官員和學者也加大了對西方分析人士的譴責力度，後者預測中國面臨著一個衰落的時代。

Mr. Xi has stressed that economic and security priorities must work hand in hand even as China grapples with slower growth. Mr. Xi is also betting that investing in manufacturing and technology can deliver new “high quality” growth by expanding industries such as new clean energy and electric vehicles.

習近平強調，經濟和安全優先事項必須齊頭並進，儘管中國努力應對增長放緩。習近平還認為，對製造業和技術的投資可以通過擴張新型清潔能源和電動汽車等產業來實現新的「高質量」增長。

The Chinese leadership’s “mantra seems to be that ‘We’re not going to grow as fast as we used to, but we’re going to gain more leverage over trade partners by controlling critical parts of the global economy,’” said Michael Beckley, an associate professor at Tufts University, who has argued that China is a “peaking power,” meaning a country whose economic ascent has slowed but not yet stopped.

中國領導層的「信條似乎是『我們的增長速度不會像以前那樣快，但我們將通過控制全球經濟的關鍵部分來獲得對貿易夥伴的更大影響力』」，塔夫茨大學助理教授麥可·貝克利說。他提出中國是一個「見頂大國」(peaking power)，指的是一個經濟增長放緩但尚未停止的國家。

Some economists argue that China’s advances in these select industries will not be enough to make up for the drag caused by a fall in consumer confidence, and by developers and local governments straining under debt. China’s broader fortunes will heavily rest on whether Mr. Xi’s wager on technology can pay off.

一些經濟學家認為，對於消費者信心下降、開發商和地方政府負債累累造成的拖累，中國在這些特定行業的進步不足以對其作出彌補。中國更廣泛的命運將在很大程度上取決於習近平對技術的押注能否獲得回報。

“They see technology as the solution to every problem they’re facing — economic, environmental, demographic, social,” said Nadège Rolland, a researcher at the National Bureau of Asian Research who studies China’s strategic thinking. “If they cannot make sufficient advances in this domain, it’s going to be very difficult for them.”

「他們將技術視為他們面臨的每一個問題的解決方案——經濟、環境、人口、社會，」美國國家亞洲研究局研究中國戰略思維的研究員納德格·羅蘭說。「如果他們不能在這個領域取得足夠的進展，對他們來說會非常困難。」

Scholars in China and abroad who hope the country might take a more liberal path sometimes look to history for examples of when party leaders made bold changes to defuse domestic and international tensions.

希望中國走上更加自由主義道路的國內外學者有時會以史為鑒，尋找黨的領導人為化解國內和國際緊張局勢而進行大膽變革的例子。

The last time that China was caught in such a painful confluence was after the June 4, 1989, crackdown on pro-democracy protesters. The bloodshed prompted Western countries to impose sanctions on China, which deepened the economic shock. Within several years, however, Deng Xiaoping, then China’s leader, sought to repair relations with Washington and other capitals and unleashed market changes that revived growth and lured back Western investors.

中國上一次陷入如此痛苦的交匯是在1989年6月4日鎮壓民主抗議者之後。流血事件促使西方國家對中國實施制裁，加深了經濟衝擊。然而，幾年之內，時任中國領導人的鄧小平尋求修復與華盛頓和其他國家的關係，帶來了市場改革，重振經濟增長並吸引西方投資者回歸。

Now, though, China faces much more entrenched antagonism from other major powers, Zhu Feng, a prominent foreign policy scholar at Nanjing University in east China, said in an interview. For example, China’s surging exports of electric cars — which have benefited from extensive government subsidies — could revive trade tensions, as the United States, Japan and Europe fear losing jobs and industrial muscle.

不過，中國南京大學著名外交政策學者朱鋒在接受採訪時表示，現在中國面臨著來自其他大國更加根深蒂固的敵意。例如，由於美國、日本和歐洲擔心失去就業機會和工業實力，中國電動汽車出口激增——受益於大量政府補貼——可能會再次加劇貿易緊張局勢。

The economic and diplomatic strains are “posing the gravest challenge to China” in decades, Professor Zhu said.

朱教授表示，經濟和外交壓力「這個對中國提出了改革開放以來最嚴峻的挑戰」。

Still, Chinese leaders seem to believe that, whatever their problems, their Western rivals face worsening ones that will ultimately humble and fracture them.

儘管如此，中國領導人似乎仍然相信，無論他們面臨什麼問題，他們的西方競爭對手面臨的問題都會加劇，最終促使它們被擊敗、被分裂。

Recent reports from institutes under China’s ruling party, military and state security ministry point to the rancorous polarization in the United States ahead of the next election. Regardless of who wins, Chinese analysts argue, American power is likely to remain troubled by political dysfunction.

中國執政黨、軍隊和國家安全部下屬機構的最新報告指出，美國在下次選舉之前將陷入嚴重的兩極分化。中國的分析人士認為，無論誰獲勝，美國的實力都可能繼續受到政治機制失靈的困擾。

Chinese scholars have also focused on fault lines in the Western bloc over Russia’s war in Ukraine. Beijing’s relations with the United States and European governments were badly strained over Mr. Xi’s partnership with President Vladimir V. Putin. But as the war stretches into its third year, the burden of supporting Ukraine is deepening rifts and “fatigue” in the United States and Europe.

中國學者還關注西方集團因俄羅斯在烏克蘭發動的戰爭而產生的分歧。由於習近平與俄羅斯總統普丁的夥伴關係，北京與美國和歐洲政府的關係受到嚴重困擾。但隨著戰爭進入第三個年頭，支持烏克蘭的負擔正在加深美國和歐洲的裂痕和「疲勞」。

“U.S. foreign intervention cannot handle everything it is trying to juggle,” Chen Xiangyang, a researcher at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations in Beijing, which is under the state security ministry, wrote last year. “China can exploit the contradictions and leverage them to its own advantage.”

「美國對外干涉顧此失彼、難再獨霸，」國家安全部下屬、位於北京的中國現代國際關係研究院研究員陳向陽去年寫道，「中國可以利用矛盾、借力打力。」